Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs – Week 15 NFL Picks & Predictions
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Sunday, December 14, 2025
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 | Total: 41.5
The Rundown
Kansas City opened in the -3.5 range and has drifted to -5.5 despite carrying a 6–7 record and dropping the Week 1 meeting to the Chargers 22–10 in Brazil. This type of movement usually indicates the market is leaning more on Kansas City’s long-term reputation than their 2025 production. When we break the matchup into efficiency components, the profile leans more competitively toward Los Angeles than the current line suggests.
Kansas City averages 24.2 points per game (11th) and allows 19.4 (7th). Los Angeles sits at 23.0 points per game (17th) and allows 20.8 (9th). Those numbers alone make this appear fairly even, but the clearer distinction comes from yards per point — a reliable indicator of scoring efficiency. The Chargers operate at 14.84 yards per point on offense versus Kansas City’s 15.15, while defensively Los Angeles allows 13.53 compared to the Chiefs’ 15.67. Over a standard set of 11–12 drives, those margins typically translate to a few points of expected value.
The total dipping from 42.5 to 41.5 also aligns with both teams’ recent difficulty sustaining drives. Kansas City has played to the under in seven of its last eight games, and Los Angeles brings a similar trend at 6–7 to the under.
Why Los Angeles Has the Edge
The Chargers grade out as the more complete team across several core efficiency categories. Their defense ranks 4th in total yards allowed (282.2) while Kansas City ranks 9th (303.7). Third-down defense is a major gap: Los Angeles allows conversions at just 34.44% (4th), whereas Kansas City allows 43.13% (26th). That difference shapes both field position and drive value over the course of a game.
Los Angeles also creates more pressure, averaging 2.7 sacks per game to Kansas City’s 2.2, and they force more defensive turnovers (1.4 takeaways per game, 8th). Kansas City, by contrast, sits at 0.8 takeaways per game, ranking near the bottom of the league. In the red zone, the Chargers’ defense allows touchdowns on 52.50% of opponent trips (8th), slightly ahead of Kansas City’s 53.85% (10th).
Even in areas where the teams appear similar, Los Angeles shows small but consistent advantages. They commit fewer penalties per game (5.9 vs. 7.0), manage rushing efficiency well, and their defensive profile supports improved field position over time. These incremental edges matter in a low-total environment where each possession carries higher relative value.
The Numbers That Matter
- Points Per Game: LAC 23.0 (17th) vs KC 24.2 (11th)
- Yards Per Point (Power Stat): LAC 14.84 off / 13.53 def vs KC 15.15 off / 15.67 def
- Points Per Play: LAC 0.355 vs KC 0.368
- Yards Per Play: LAC 5.3 vs KC 5.6
- 3rd Down Conversion %: LAC 47.12% vs KC 40.24%
- Red Zone TD Scoring %: LAC 50.00% vs KC 61.54%
Los Angeles’ defensive efficiency continues to be the most actionable component. They rank 5th in opponent passing yards allowed (173.2), while Kansas City allows 204.2 (13th). The Chargers also generate a higher interception rate, with opponents throwing picks on 3.86% of attempts (2nd). Kansas City sits at 1.80% (21st).
On the ground, both defenses hold up reasonably well, but the Chargers show slightly stronger offensive production at 125.7 rushing yards per game (9th) compared to Kansas City’s 118.9 (17th). Over the 60–65 plays each team typically runs, these marginal gains accumulate.
Market Analysis & Line Movement
The current move from -4.5 to -5.5 has pushed Kansas City through a key number despite entering this matchup on a five-game ATS losing streak. Public perception still gravitates toward the Chiefs’ postseason credibility, but the data suggests a more balanced contest than the line implies.
The total drop from 42.5 to 41.5 follows both teams’ recent scoring profiles. Kansas City’s home games have consistently leaned toward the under, with a 1–6 O/U mark at Arrowhead. Los Angeles has been similarly under-friendly at 6–7 for the season.
Over the last 10 games, the Chargers are 5–1 straight up despite a 4–6 ATS mark, while Kansas City has gone 5–5 straight up and 4–6 ATS. Arrowhead still offers a measurable home-field edge, but the Chiefs’ offensive volatility has softened its impact on totals and spreads.
Head-to-Head Efficiency Matchups
| Metric | Los Angeles | Kansas City | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 23.0 | 24.2 | Kansas City |
| Yards Per Point (Offense) | 14.84 | 15.15 | Los Angeles |
| Points Per Play | 0.355 | 0.368 | Kansas City |
| Yards Per Play | 5.3 | 5.6 | Kansas City |
| 3rd Down Conversion % | 47.12% | 40.24% | Los Angeles |
| Red Zone TD Scoring % | 50.00% | 61.54% | Kansas City |
| Turnover Margin/Game | +0.1 | -0.1 | Los Angeles |
The efficiency grid shows why this number appears elevated. Los Angeles holds structural advantages in yards per point, third-down conversions, and turnover margin — all categories that tend to correlate well with spread performance. Kansas City’s strengths in raw yardage and red-zone offense are meaningful, but they have not consistently translated into market success, reflected in their 5–8 ATS record.
The Chargers also limit explosive passing plays effectively, allowing 6.3 yards per pass attempt (5th) compared to Kansas City’s 7.1 (22nd). Their defensive structure forces longer drives, raising the probability of stalled series or field goal attempts. Over 20–24 total possessions, these small efficiency edges accumulate into measurable value for an underdog catching more than five points.
The Bottom Line & Predictions
Prediction
Los Angeles Chargers 20, Kansas City Chiefs 17
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐⭐ Los Angeles Chargers +5.5 (-110) — Defensive efficiency and turnover profile support the underdog.
- ⭐⭐ Under 41.5 (-110) — Low total aligns with both teams’ recent offensive output and defensive strengths.
- ⭐ Los Angeles Moneyline (+200) — Reasonable situational consideration in a matchup where efficiency profiles narrow the gap.
Game Flow Projection: Expect a methodical, lower-scoring contest with extended possessions. The Chargers’ advantages in third-down defense and turnover rate should create additional field goal stops, while Kansas City needs above-average red-zone efficiency to cover the number.
