Indianapolis Colts vs Seattle Seahawks – Week 15 NFL Picks & Predictions
The market has reacted violently to the Colts’ quarterback situation, pushing the line to two full touchdowns. Expert handicapper Rich Crew analyzes why the offensive efficiency metrics suggest even -14 might be light for the Seahawks at Lumen Field.
Game Information
Date: Sunday, December 14, 2025
Time: 4:25 PM ET
Venue: Lumen Field, Seattle
Current Line: Seahawks -14 | Total: 42.5
The Rundown
This number has held firm at Seattle -14, and the reason is straightforward: the market has completely priced out Indianapolis after the Daniel Jones Achilles injury. The Colts are now staring at either rookie Riley Leonard or a 43-year-old Philip Rivers coming off a five-year retirement. That uncertainty alone justifies a premium, but the efficiency data shows the spread may still be light.
Seattle ranks near the top of the league in offensive scoring efficiency, generating 0.486 points per play compared to Indianapolis at 0.377. That gap doesn’t look dramatic at first glance, but stretched across 11–12 possessions, it equates to roughly a full touchdown in expected output. Add in field position and turnover expectation, and you start to see how blowouts are built.
Why Seattle Has the Advantage
The Seahawks check every box that matters when laying a big number: offensive efficiency, defensive resistance, and quarterback stability.
Seattle allows just 17.38 points per game, forcing opponents to travel 16.58 yards for every point scored. Indianapolis, by comparison, allows points much more easily and now enters the game with a compromised offense that is unlikely to sustain drives. The turnover margin further tilts the field — Seattle sits at +0.15 per game, while the Colts are underwater at -0.23.
The most decisive mismatch shows up through the air. Seattle generates 12.6 yards per pass attempt while allowing only 8.68 on defense. Indianapolis allows over 10 yards per pass attempt defensively and now faces that matchup with a quarterback situation that limits both play-calling and downfield aggression.
Key Efficiency Metrics
- Points Per Play: Colts 0.377 | Seahawks 0.486
- Yards Per Point (Offense): Colts 12.74 | Seahawks 11.87
- Yards Per Point (Defense): Colts 15.74 | Seahawks 16.58
- Yards Per Pass (Offense): Colts 11.03 | Seahawks 12.6
- Yards Per Pass Allowed: Colts 10.33 | Seahawks 8.68
- Turnover Differential: Colts -0.23 | Seahawks +0.15
These are the types of splits that matter when spreads climb into double digits. Seattle scores more efficiently, forces opponents to work harder for points, and wins the pass game on both sides of the ball. Even if Indianapolis finds moderate success on the ground, that advantage gets neutralized once Seattle builds an early lead and dictates tempo.
Market Analysis
The line opened at Seattle -13.5 and quickly moved to -14, clearing a key number without any resistance. The total has remained anchored at 42.5, reflecting expectations of limited Colts production rather than explosive scoring from Seattle.
Seattle is 10-3 ATS on the season and has covered consistently as a favorite. They’re also 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five at home. Indianapolis, meanwhile, is 1-4 ATS over their last five and has been outscored heavily during that stretch. Market behavior suggests sharper money is comfortable laying the number, even at two touchdowns.
Projected Game Script
Seattle should control this game early behind their passing efficiency and crowd-driven defensive pressure. Expect the Seahawks to jump out in the first half, forcing Indianapolis into predictable passing situations. That’s where the efficiency gap widens quickly.
With roughly 10–11 drives per side, Seattle’s ability to convert red-zone opportunities — paired with Indianapolis’s difficulty sustaining drives — creates separation as the game wears on. Field position and turnovers should continue to favor the home team throughout.
Best Bets & Prediction
- ⭐⭐⭐ Seahawks -14 (-110) — Massive efficiency edge paired with quarterback uncertainty.
- ⭐⭐ Under 42.5 (-110) — Colts’ offensive limitations cap total scoring.
- ⭐ Seahawks 1st Half -7.5 — Early-script advantage at Lumen Field.
Final Score Prediction: Seahawks 31, Colts 16
Key Angle: Seattle’s elite pass efficiency on both sides of the ball compounds against Indianapolis’s quarterback instability, creating sustainable scoring separation.
