RBD taps into his WF model sub-subcategories to explain why this Falcons–Bucs matchup triggers a rare betting prediction built on deeper system splits.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay Play
A simple play I have to take, based on a profitable sub-subcategory.
My handicapping model WF1 says Atlanta should be the Fav in this game.
The record for this play is 31-36, a profitable Fade, but just barely.
I usually don’t buy anything unless I have at least 58% working in my favor, and a 36-31 Fade doesn’t qualify.
So why did I buy it?
Subcategories
I break down all my models into various subcategories, hunting for a higher percentage to use for a play ON or Fade AGAINST.
Example.
The 36-31 record is for ALL games.
A subcategory would be when it’s a Rd team or a Hm team.
When it’s a Rd team, like Atlanta is tonight, the record for this spot is 20-23.
Still not the 58% I use for a bar.
So why did I buy it?
Sub-subcategories
Again, handicapping is about digging deeper into systems, models, methods or whatever you want to call it, to find something with a higher win percentage.
Without trying to sound too convoluted or technical, a sub-subcategory I track is when one model for picking WF’s disagrees with the other model AND there’s a point spread differential of a TD or more between them.
WF1 says Atlanta should be the Favorite.
WF2 says Tampa Bay is the correct Fav, by more than a TD spread.
The record for WF1 road teams in this situation is 1-7.
And THAT’S a better than 58% Fade.
So I’m buying the Bucs.
But not right now.
The line opened at TB -5′.
Falcon money is coming in.
The WAN is now -5, and a couple of houses have already gone to -4′.
No sense buying now as the line is moving in my favor. I’ll monitor it throughout the day, hoping I can get the hook knocked off.
Team Notes
The Falcons are coming into this game off a loss to the 10-3 Seattle Seahawks; no shame there.
The Bucs come in off a loss at Hm to 3-10 New Orleans; a whole lot of shame there.
Atlanta is 4-9 SU, 5-7-1 ATS.
On the Rd they’re 2-5 SU and 3-3 ATS.
Tampa Bay is 7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS.
At Hm they’re 3-3 SU and a pitiful 1-5 ATS, including 1-4 as Hm Favs.
Some pretty ugly numbers for the Bucs, for sure. But there is a truism in sports betting – eventually the pendulum will always swing back the other way.
Hopefully the ATS numbers start to swing back towards the Bucs tonight.
Tampa Bay is in a battle for the division title with the suddenly formidable Carolina Panthers, while the only battle Atlanta is in is to stay out of the basement in the division (not to mention finishing with the worst record in the entire NFL.) The second place team in the NFC South will NOT make the playoffs as a wild card.
A little extra added incentive for the Bucs tonight.
My Play
TB (wait to buy)
