RBD breaks down Green Bay vs Denver with sharp handicapping, betting models, and NFC vs AFC trends shaping this week’s picks.
We’re coming down to the wire in the NFL season and the three tightest races are in the NFC North, NFC West, and AFC South, where each division has three teams within one game of each other in the fight for the top spot.
This week I’m focused on the NFC North, where Green Bay sits in first place with a record of 9-3-1, followed by Chicago at 9-4, and Detroit at 8-5.
Third place Detroit seems to have the toughest schedule of the three so the battle for division leader looks to be between Green Bay and Chicago.
The Packers have Denver (11-2), Chicago (9-4), Baltimore (6-7), and Minnesota (5-8) left on their schedule.
The Bears have Cleveland (3-10), Green Bay (9-3), San Fran (9-4), and Detroit (8-5.)
Based on those remaining games, the schedule favors the Packers, but with one head-to-head meeting left between them anything can happen, so neither team has room for a slip up.
The Bears have the easier game this week, giving them the edge going into their match with the Pack next week, which makes this week’s game a critical situation for Green Bay.
The Broncos have a two-game cushion over the second place Chargers but their division is by no means locked up, especially with a season ending head-to-head meeting with Los Angeles looming.
So we have a match up with both teams fighting to win their division.
Where are the edges?
Let’s dig into the stats.
Green Bay is:
9-3-1 SU
4-1-1 SU on the Rd
Denver is:
11-2 SU
6-0 SU at Hm
Edge to Denver, with their perfect 6-0 record at Hm. But it’s a slight edge, as Green Bay has only lost one game on the Rd.
Let’s bring the spread into play.
Green Bay is:
2-4 ATS on the Rd
1-4 ATS as Rd Favs, like this week
Denver is:
3-3 ATS at Hm
1-0 ATS as Hm Dogs, like this week
Those Green Bay numbers say “Big Edge,” Denver.
But I’m riding with Pack.
Yes, Denver looks tough at 11-2 BUT those wins include victories over . . .
Washington (3-10) by one point
Las Vegas (2-11) by three points
New York Giants (2-11) by one point
New York Jets (3-10) by one point
Those are some really close calls against some really lousy teams. I’d say there appears to be a chink in their armor but by today’s ever evolving standards I don’t know what’s considered racist and what’s not, and I don’t want to offend the people at my local Chinese restaurant. I’m there at least twice a week, they know me, and they read my articles – Asians are big gamblers (or is that racist too?)
Anyway…
I think this is a good spot for Denver to fall back to Earth a bit. If four lousy teams like the Redskins, Raiders, Giants, and Jets can almost beat them, certainly the Packers can get the job done.
I do, of course, have more reasons for the pick.
After some early season dominance, the AFC is starting to catch up to the NFC in head to head matchups. The record now stands at 36-28, a 56% edge for the NFC.
But there’s real value when it’s an NFC Rd Fav.
This is where the NFC has a clear advantage at 11-5, 68%. And the Packers are a small Rd Fav this week.
So I’ve got that going for me.
Plus, Green Bay won for me last week and I like to stick with what works.
This week, Denver qualifies for some of the same handicapping models I used last week in my play AGAINST Chicago:
WF1 says Denver should be the Favorite.
WF1 has a record of 11-13 on Hm teams, a 55% Fade.
WF2 says Denver should be the Favorite.
WF2 has a record of 19-23, another 55% Fade.
When I have a match, when both models pick the same team, the overall record is 1-8.
It’s stronger when they match on a Rd team, where the record is 1-7, but it’s 0-1 on Hm teams.
Yeah, the data sample can’t get any smaller than just one game, but still, it IS 100%.
So I’ve got that going for me, too.
I not only have numbers from my personal handicapping models backing me up on this play, and the NFC vs AFC stats, but I’ve also got a “gut feel” on it, because . . .
Denver needed OT to beat Washington.
The Jets had the lead with 5 minutes left in the game but, being the Jets, they blew it.
The Raiders were tied with them at halftime but, being the Raiders, they put up zeros in the third and fourth quarters.
And in the game with the Giants it took an epic 33 point fourth quarter for the Broncos to sneak by with a one point win, as the last second of the game ticked off the clock.
You keep playing with fire and eventually you’re going to get burned. And my gut says Denver goes to Dante’s Inferno this week.
My play:
Green Bay -2
Recap: 1-0
Record: 11-6
Recap: It took a last minute interception by the Packers to get the job done, but in the end I banked a unit with my play on Green Bay.
And, as Dickens’ Oliver said, “I want more.”
