The efficiency metrics suggest a blowout at the FedExForum. Vanderbilt enters with a 20-point net efficiency advantage over a struggling Memphis squad. Bash analyzes the numbers to explain why the Commodores’ elite shooting (61.2% eFG) makes them a safe play even as an 8-point road favorite.
The Setup: Vanderbilt at Memphis
Vanderbilt’s laying 7.5 to 8 points at Memphis on Tuesday night, and I can already hear the skeptics: Really? You’re backing a 9-0 SEC team as a road favorite against Penny Hardaway at FedExForum? Look, I get the hesitation. Memphis at home is supposed to be tough. But when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this isn’t even close to a coin flip situation.
The Commodores are absolutely rolling right now, sitting at 9-0 with the #1 adjusted offensive efficiency rating in the country at 127.7. That’s not a typo. Meanwhile, Memphis is treading water at 4-4 with an adjusted offensive efficiency ranked #157 at 108.6. Here’s the thing – when you’ve got a 19-point gap in adjusted efficiency ratings between two teams, an 8-point spread actually feels light. Let me walk you through why this number makes sense and why I’m backing Vanderbilt to cover.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Vanderbilt (9-0) @ Memphis (4-4)
Date: December 17, 2025
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: FedExForum, Memphis, TN
Point Spread: Vanderbilt -7.5 to -8
Over/Under: 158.5 to 159.5
Moneyline: N/A
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency gap here is massive, and it tells the entire story. Vanderbilt’s adjusted offensive efficiency of 127.7 ranks #1 nationally according to collegebasketballdata.com, while their adjusted defensive efficiency sits at a respectable 102.0 (#63). That gives them an adjusted net rating of +25.7 (#7 in the country).
Memphis? They’re checking in at +5.3 (#113) in adjusted net efficiency. That’s not just a difference – it’s a chasm. We’re talking about a 20-point swing in adjusted net efficiency between these two teams. Do that math over 70 possessions at Memphis’s pace, and you’re looking at a double-digit expected margin.
But here’s where it gets even more interesting. Vanderbilt plays at an absolutely glacial pace – 56.8 possessions per game (#362 nationally). Memphis wants to push it at 69.9 possessions (#138). The tempo battle matters here because if Vanderbilt can slow this game down to their preferred crawl, they’re going to maximize every single possession with that elite offensive efficiency. They’re scoring 96.8 points per game (#4) despite playing at one of the slowest paces in America. That’s surgical precision.
The shooting splits tell you everything about why Vanderbilt’s offense is so deadly. They’re hitting 52.7% from the field (#7) and 38.8% from three (#27), which translates to an effective field goal percentage of 61.2% (#6 nationally). Memphis is struggling to crack 43.2% from the floor (#281) with an eFG% of just 49.0% (#294). That’s a 12-point gap in effective field goal percentage – absolutely massive when you’re trying to hang with an elite offense.
Vanderbilt’s Situation
The Commodores are rolling through their schedule like a buzzsaw. They just knocked off SMU 88-69 and Saint Mary’s 96-71 in their last five games, showing they can handle quality competition. This isn’t some cupcake-feasting 9-0 team.
Duke Miles is leading the charge at 17.8 points per game, but what makes Vanderbilt so dangerous is their balance. Tyler Tanner adds 16.2 PPG, Tyler Nickel chips in 13.3 PPG, and they’re distributing 20.0 assists per game (#9 nationally). That’s not just ball movement – it’s why they’re getting those elite shooting percentages. They’re finding the open man and making defenses pay.
The one concern is their defensive rating of 128.3 (#359), which looks alarming on paper. But remember, that raw defensive rating is pace-adjusted, and when you’re playing at the slowest tempo in the country, those numbers get inflated. Their adjusted defensive efficiency of 102.0 (#63) is the real story – they’re actually above average defensively when you account for competition.
They’re also taking care of the ball beautifully, coughing it up just 9.3 times per game (#15). Against a Memphis team that forces 8.4 steals per game (#87), that discipline matters.
Memphis’s Situation
Memphis is stuck in mediocrity right now at 4-4, and the recent form is concerning. They just got absolutely boat-raced by Louisville, losing 73-99 on the road. That’s a 26-point beatdown against a quality opponent, and it exposed some serious offensive limitations.
The Tigers can’t shoot. They’re hitting just 43.2% from the floor (#281) and 32.4% from three (#228). Their offensive rating of 109.0 (#219) is pedestrian at best. Dug McDaniel is a quality facilitator at 6.4 assists per game (#13 nationally), but he’s not getting enough help from his supporting cast. When your second-leading scorer is averaging 9.1 points, you’ve got a problem against elite defenses.
The one area where Memphis has a legitimate advantage is on the offensive glass. They’re grabbing 37.7% of their misses (#10 nationally), compared to Vanderbilt’s 28.9% (#267). That’s a massive gap, and it could keep Memphis in the game by generating second-chance opportunities. Here’s the matchup that seals it for me, though – Memphis’s offensive struggles are too severe to overcome that efficiency gap, even with the rebounding advantage.
Defensively, Memphis is respectable at 103.3 adjusted defensive efficiency (#90), but they’re turning the ball over 13.2 times per game (#255). Against a Vanderbilt team that’s protecting the rock and playing at a slow pace, those turnovers become even more costly.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on Vanderbilt’s ability to control tempo and execute in the halfcourt. If they can slow Memphis down to their preferred pace in the mid-to-high 50s in possessions, they’re going to carve up this defense possession after possession.
The shooting matchup is stark. Vanderbilt’s 61.2% eFG% against Memphis’s 49.0% eFG% is a 12-point gap that compounds over the course of a game. Let’s say this game hits 65 possessions as a compromise between the two tempos. Vanderbilt’s efficiency advantage suggests they should outscore Memphis by roughly 10-12 points in a neutral environment. On the road, you knock that down a few points for home court, and you’re still looking at a 7-8 point expected margin.
Memphis’s one path to covering is dominating the offensive glass and turning those second chances into easy buckets. They’ve got the #10 offensive rebounding rate in the country, and that could generate 8-10 extra possessions. But here’s the problem – even with extra possessions, can Memphis score efficiently enough to keep pace? Their offensive rating suggests no.
I keep coming back to those adjusted efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. A 20-point gap in adjusted net efficiency is typically worth 12-15 points on a neutral court. Even giving Memphis 3-4 points for home court advantage, Vanderbilt should still be winning this game by high single digits.
The three-point line is another key battleground. Vanderbilt’s hitting 38.8% from deep while Memphis is allowing 31.8% (#144). That’s a favorable matchup for the Commodores’ shooters. Meanwhile, Memphis is only hitting 32.4% from three, so they’re not going to beat Vanderbilt from the perimeter.
My Play
The Pick: Vanderbilt -7.5 (-110) for 2 units
I’ve considered all of that, and the efficiency gap is still too massive to ignore. Vanderbilt is the #1 adjusted offense in America going against a Memphis team that’s #157 offensively. The Commodores are 9-0 and executing at an elite level on both ends of the floor when you adjust for competition.
The main risk here is if Memphis goes nuclear on the offensive glass and turns this into a track meet. If they can push the pace to 75+ possessions and cash in on 15+ second-chance points, they could keep this within the number. But Vanderbilt’s been excellent at controlling tempo all season, and I trust them to dictate the style of play.
I’m projecting this one to land around Vanderbilt 82, Memphis 73. That’s a 9-point margin that comfortably covers the 7.5-point spread. Vanderbilt’s offensive firepower is too much for Memphis to contain over 40 minutes, and the Commodores’ discipline with the ball should neutralize Memphis’s home court advantage. Lock in Vanderbilt -7.5 and trust the numbers.
