The efficiency metrics point to a defensive mismatch at Pauley Pavilion. UCLA ranks 88th in adjusted defensive efficiency and controls the tempo (#275 in pace), while Arizona State struggles to get stops (#148 AdjD) and rebound the basketball (#324). Bash analyzes why the Bruins’ ability to grind this game down justifies laying the 9.5 points against a perimeter-oriented Sun Devils squad.
The Setup: Arizona State at UCLA
UCLA’s laying 9.5 points at home against Arizona State on Tuesday night, and I can already hear the skepticism: Nine and a half against a Big 12 team that’s 7-2? That feels steep. Here’s the thing – when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this line isn’t just justified, it might actually be a touch light. The Bruins are sitting at 11.7 in adjusted net efficiency, ranking 61st nationally, while Arizona State checks in at just 7.3, good for 100th. But that’s not the full story. The real separation comes on the defensive end, where UCLA ranks 88th in adjusted defensive efficiency (103.1) compared to Arizona State’s 148th (106.6). In a game that’ll be played at UCLA’s preferred pace – and we’ll get to that – those defensive numbers become the foundation for everything else.
This game lives and dies on whether the Bruins can impose their will at Pauley Pavilion and turn this into a grinding, possession-by-possession battle. Arizona State wants to run and gun. UCLA wants to suffocate. Let me walk you through why the home team has every advantage to do exactly that.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Arizona State at UCLA
Date: December 17, 2025
Time: 10:30 PM ET
Location: Pauley Pavilion, Los Angeles, CA
Spread: UCLA -9.5
Total: 146.5
Moneyline: UCLA -355, Arizona State +280
Why This Number Makes Sense
Here’s why this line makes sense: UCLA’s defensive rating of 99.2 ranks 79th nationally, while Arizona State is giving up 106.6 points per 100 possessions, ranking 192nd. That’s a seven-point gap per 100 possessions in raw defensive efficiency. Now factor in that UCLA operates at 65.7 possessions per game (275th in pace), while Arizona State prefers 71.1 (102nd). The Bruins are going to slow this game down, and when they do, every possession becomes magnified.
Do that math over 68 possessions – splitting the difference in their preferred tempos – and you’re looking at a roughly 10-point swing based purely on defensive efficiency. That’s before we even discuss the offensive side, where UCLA’s adjusted offensive efficiency of 114.8 (65th) edges Arizona State’s 113.9 (78th). The gap isn’t massive on offense, but it doesn’t need to be. The Bruins are allowing just 65.0 points per game, ranking 23rd nationally in that category. Arizona State? They’re giving up 75.9 per game, sitting at 245th.
I keep coming back to those defensive numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. When you’re facing a team that ranks in the top quarter of college basketball defensively, and you’re sitting outside the top 190 on that end yourself, you’re fighting uphill. At Pauley Pavilion. In a late-night game. Against a team that’s going to dictate pace.
Arizona State’s Situation
The Sun Devils come in at 7-2, and credit where it’s due – they can light it up from deep. Arizona State ranks 25th nationally in three-point percentage at 39.0%, and that’s not just volume shooting. They’re converting efficiently. Maurice Odum is the engine here, averaging 18.9 points per game (58th nationally) while dishing out 6.0 assists per game (24th). That’s elite playmaking from the guard spot, and he’s got weapons around him. Anthony Johnson adds 13.8 per game, and when this team gets hot from beyond the arc, they can run teams out of the gym.
But here’s where it falls apart: Arizona State ranks 324th in rebounds per game at just 32.6, and their offensive rebounding percentage sits at 248th nationally (29.4%). That’s catastrophic when you’re facing a team that wants to limit possessions. Every miss becomes a UCLA possession, and the Sun Devils don’t have the board work to generate second chances. Their recent form shows the volatility – they dropped 100 on Washington State, then gave up 88 to USC in a loss. The defense simply isn’t reliable enough, ranking 241st in opponent field goal percentage (44.7%).
UCLA’s Situation
The Bruins are 7-2, and their identity is crystal clear: defend, control pace, and execute in the halfcourt. That 65.7 pace ranking (275th) isn’t a bug, it’s a feature. UCLA wants to grind you down, and they have the defensive personnel to do it. Holding opponents to 40.8% shooting (78th nationally) and 31.2% from three (121st) means they’re forcing tough shots and living with the results.
Offensively, Tyler Bilodeau leads the way at 15.6 points per game, but the real story is Donovan Dent’s facilitation. He’s dishing out 6.4 assists per game, ranking 13th nationally. That’s elite playmaking that keeps the offense humming even in a slower tempo. Skyy Clark (12.7 PPG) and Eric Dailey Jr. (11.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG) provide balance, and UCLA’s 16.1 assists per game (95th) shows they’re moving the ball and finding good looks.
The home court matters here. UCLA’s offensive rating of 117.2 (102nd) improves at Pauley, and they’re coming off a solid 74-63 win over Oregon where the defense clamped down. Yes, they dropped games at Gonzaga and Cal, but both were road contests. At home, this team has the defensive foundation to control games.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game gets decided on two fronts: pace and three-point variance. UCLA ranks 275th in pace while Arizona State sits 102nd. The Bruins are going to win that battle at home – they always do. When possessions shrink, Arizona State’s offensive firepower becomes less impactful. Sure, they can shoot 39% from three, but if they’re only getting 12-13 three-point attempts instead of 18-20, that advantage evaporates.
The rebounding mismatch is equally critical. Arizona State ranks 324th in rebounds per game while UCLA sits 272nd – not great for the Bruins, but functional. More importantly, UCLA’s offensive rebounding percentage of 32.8% (124th) crushes Arizona State’s 29.4% (248th). In a slower game, second-chance points become gold, and the Bruins have the edge.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Arizona State’s 106.6 defensive rating (192nd) against UCLA’s halfcourt execution. The Bruins don’t need to run to score – they rank 102nd in offensive rating despite playing at a glacial pace. They’ll probe, find mismatches, and exploit Arizona State’s defensive weaknesses. Meanwhile, the Sun Devils’ perimeter shooting becomes less reliable when UCLA’s 78th-ranked opponent field goal percentage defense forces them into contested looks.
That’s not just a statistical edge – it’s why UCLA wins by double digits. The Sun Devils need chaos and transition opportunities. They’re not getting either at Pauley Pavilion.
My Play
The Play: UCLA -9.5 (-110) for 2 units
I’ve considered the three-point variance, the late tip time, and Arizona State’s ability to get hot from deep. None of it changes the fundamental math. UCLA’s defensive advantage is too massive, the pace control is too decisive, and the home court edge at Pauley Pavilion tilts every close possession toward the Bruins. Arizona State’s 148th-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency means they can’t get stops when they need them, and their 324th-ranked rebounding means they can’t generate extra chances.
Give me UCLA to win this one 76-64, covering the 9.5 comfortably. The main risk here is if Arizona State catches absolute fire from three and hits 13-14 threes on limited attempts. But even then, UCLA’s pace control limits the damage. The Bruins impose their style, grind this game into the mud, and pull away in the final eight minutes when Arizona State’s defensive deficiencies become fatal. This number should be closer to 11, and I’m happy to lay the 9.5 before it moves.
