Missouri Valley Conference play heats up as Illinois State brings their top-60 defense to Carbondale to face a Southern Illinois team that is undefeated at home. Bryan Bash breaks down the efficiency gap and why the Redbirds are primed to beat the point spread as a slight underdog.
The Setup: Illinois State at Southern Illinois
Southern Illinois is laying just 1.5 to 2 points at home against Illinois State in a Missouri Valley Conference matchup, and here’s the thing – this number screams toss-up when the data tells a very different story. The Redbirds roll into Banterra Center at 8-2 with an adjusted net efficiency of +10.0 that ranks 72nd nationally according to collegebasketballdata.com, while the Salukis sit at 5-4 with a +2.6 adjusted net that’s down at 140th. That’s a 7.4-point gap in adjusted efficiency, yet the market is treating this like a coin flip. I can already hear the pushback: Southern Illinois is at home, they’ve won three of the last four in this series, and Illinois State just lost at Utah State. Look, I get it. But when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com numbers, this is a classic case of the market overvaluing home court and recent head-to-head history while ignoring a massive talent and efficiency gap.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Illinois State at Southern Illinois
Date: December 18, 2025
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Venue: Banterra Center, Carbondale, IL
Betting Lines (DraftKings):
Spread: Southern Illinois -1.5
Total: 152.5
Moneyline: Southern Illinois -135, Illinois State +114
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let me walk you through why this line is off by at least a field goal. Illinois State ranks 54th nationally in defensive efficiency at 97.6, while Southern Illinois checks in at 115th with a 101.7 mark. That’s a four-point difference per 100 possessions in Illinois State’s favor. On the offensive end, the Redbirds post a 120.0 rating that ranks 72nd, compared to Southern Illinois at 110.8 (187th). That’s nearly a 10-point gap per 100 possessions.
Do that math over 68 possessions – roughly the pace we’re looking at with Illinois State at 67.7 possessions per game (204th) and Southern Illinois at 69.3 (155th) – and you’re looking at a raw efficiency advantage that projects closer to 8-10 points, not 1.5. The adjusted numbers from collegebasketballdata.com confirm this isn’t a schedule strength mirage either. Illinois State’s adjusted offensive efficiency of 111.7 ranks 101st, while their adjusted defensive efficiency of 101.7 sits at 57th. Southern Illinois? They’re at 110.0 offensively (133rd) and 107.5 defensively (167th).
Here’s what those adjusted numbers tell us: Even accounting for opponent quality, Illinois State is the significantly better team on both ends of the floor. The Salukis are giving up 107.5 points per 100 possessions against average competition – that’s a defense that ranks 167th nationally. Against an Illinois State offense that ranks 101st in adjusted efficiency, that’s a problem.
Illinois State’s Situation
The Redbirds are rolling at 8-2, and the collegebasketballdata.com profile shows a team that’s elite at taking care of the basketball and defending the three-point line. They’re turning it over just 9.8 times per game, which ranks 28th nationally, and their turnover ratio of 0.1 sits at 17th. That’s not just ball security – it’s why Illinois State generates 120.0 points per 100 possessions despite playing at a slower pace.
Defensively, they’re holding opponents to 28.8% from three (45th nationally) and 39.9% overall from the field (59th). Johnny Kinziger and Ty’Reek Coleman both average 13.0 points per game, while Chase Walker adds 11.4 with 5.4 rebounds and solid playmaking at 2.6 assists. The one real weakness? They’re 292nd in offensive rebounding percentage at just 28.1%, and they shoot only 67.8% from the free throw line (280th). But here’s the thing – Southern Illinois isn’t a great defensive rebounding team themselves, and this game isn’t going to be decided at the charity stripe.
That Utah State loss? They scored 78 points on the road against a solid Mountain West team. Not a red flag – just a tough road spot against better competition than they’ll see tonight.
Southern Illinois’ Situation
The Salukis are 5-4, and the numbers reveal a team that’s just mediocre on both ends. They rank 187th in offensive rating and 115th in defensive rating – those are middle-of-the-pack numbers that don’t inspire confidence laying points, even at home. The three-point shooting is a disaster at 27.3% (352nd nationally), which means they’re generating offense almost exclusively inside. They’ve scored 376 points in the paint compared to 336 for Illinois State, but that interior advantage disappears when you can’t space the floor.
Quel’Ron House leads the team at 14.4 points per game, but after him, it’s a collection of guys in the 8-10 point range with no one really separating themselves. Drew Steffe is the best facilitator at 3.0 assists per game, but the team turns it over 11.8 times per game (143rd) compared to Illinois State’s elite 9.8 (28th). That’s a two-turnover difference per game, and against an Illinois State team that’s converting those mistakes efficiently, that’s a 4-6 point swing right there.
The recent form shows volatility – they got crushed by 16 at Memphis, squeaked by High Point on the road, and needed overtime to beat Little Rock at home. This isn’t a team playing with confidence or consistency.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on two critical matchups: three-point shooting and turnovers. Illinois State defends the three at an elite level (45th nationally at 28.8% allowed) while Southern Illinois can’t shoot it anyway (352nd at 27.3%). That’s a catastrophic combination for the Salukis, who need to generate offense somewhere other than the paint against a defense that ranks 54th in efficiency.
The turnover battle is even more lopsided. Illinois State ranks 28th nationally in fewest turnovers per game while forcing opponents into mistakes with active hands (5.5 steals per game). Southern Illinois turns it over 11.8 times per game and generates only 7.7 steals. I keep coming back to those turnover numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Over 68 possessions, that two-turnover difference becomes 4-6 extra possessions for Illinois State, and at their efficiency level, that’s 5-7 additional points.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Illinois State’s adjusted defensive efficiency of 101.7 (57th) against Southern Illinois’ adjusted offensive efficiency of 110.0 (133rd). The Redbirds have the significantly better defense, and they’re facing an offense that struggles to shoot from outside and turns the ball over. Meanwhile, Illinois State’s offense ranks 101st in adjusted efficiency against a Southern Illinois defense that sits 167th. The Redbirds have the advantage on both ends, and it’s not particularly close.
The main risk here is if Southern Illinois dominates the offensive glass and generates second-chance points. They rank 239th in offensive rebounding percentage at 29.6%, compared to Illinois State’s 292nd ranking at 28.1%. But that’s a marginal difference, and Illinois State’s superior ball security and three-point defense more than compensate.
My Play
The Pick: Illinois State +1.5 (3 units) and Illinois State ML +114 (1.5 units)
I’ve considered the home court advantage, the recent head-to-head history, and Southern Illinois’ familiarity with Illinois State’s personnel. The efficiency gap is still too massive to ignore. Illinois State is the better team by 7.4 points in adjusted net efficiency, they defend at an elite level, and they take care of the basketball against a Southern Illinois team that’s mediocre on both ends and can’t shoot from outside.
I’m projecting Illinois State to win this game outright by 4-6 points, something like 75-71 or 78-73. The value on the moneyline at +114 is too good to pass up for a smaller play, and the 1.5-point spread is a gift. Southern Illinois might keep it close at home, but the Redbirds have the horses to pull away late behind superior execution and efficiency.
This is a classic case of the market overvaluing home court and undervaluing a significant talent gap. Take Illinois State and cash the ticket.
