The books are hanging 5.5 points for a Wisconsin team coming off a bruising 30-point loss to Nebraska. Bryan Bash highlights the high-value free pick and explains why the backcourt duo of John Blackwell and Nick Boyd might not be enough to pull away from Kevin Willard’s Wildcats.
The Setup: Wisconsin at Villanova
Wisconsin’s laying 5.5 points against Villanova on a neutral court in Milwaukee, and I’m seeing a matchup that’s tighter than most people think. Look, both teams sit in the top-40 nationally in adjusted net efficiency according to collegebasketballdata.com, with Villanova at #34 (16.2) and Wisconsin at #40 (15.5). That’s essentially a coin flip when you factor in the neutral site designation at Fiserv Forum.
Here’s the thing – this line is begging you to take the Badgers because of their offensive firepower. Wisconsin ranks 13th nationally in offensive rating (135.7) and 22nd in adjusted offensive efficiency (119.9). Those are elite numbers. But before you slam that Wisconsin button, let me walk you through why this spread doesn’t tell the whole story, and why the defense – or lack thereof – is going to make this game far more competitive than that 5.5-point number suggests.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Wisconsin vs Villanova
Date: December 19, 2025
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI (Neutral Site)
Records: Wisconsin 7-2, Villanova 7-1
The Line:
Spread: Wisconsin -5.5 (DraftKings)
Total: 150.5
Moneyline: Wisconsin -198, Villanova +164
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The efficiency gap here is minimal, and that’s what keeps me from pounding Wisconsin. According to collegebasketballdata.com, both teams rank nearly identically in adjusted offensive efficiency – Wisconsin at 119.9 (#22) and Villanova at 119.7 (#24). That’s a 0.2-point difference over 100 possessions. Do that math over 65 possessions in this slow-paced game, and you’re looking at a negligible offensive advantage.
Where Wisconsin theoretically gains separation is on defense – the Badgers sit at 104.4 (#107) in adjusted defensive efficiency versus Villanova’s 103.5 (#94). Wait, hold up. Villanova actually rates better defensively in adjusted metrics. That’s not a typo. Despite Wisconsin’s gaudy 13th-ranked offensive rating, their defensive rating sits at 115.3, which ranks a ghastly 315th nationally. That’s not just bad – it’s why Wisconsin gave up 90 to Nebraska and 74 to TCU in their two losses.
Villanova’s defensive rating of 102.3 (#128) isn’t elite, but it’s 13 points better than Wisconsin’s. Over 65 possessions, that gap matters. The market is pricing Wisconsin’s offense without fully accounting for their defensive vulnerability against a Villanova team that can score efficiently.
Wisconsin’s Situation
The Badgers bring serious firepower with John Blackwell (21.0 PPG, #15 nationally) and Nick Boyd (20.2 PPG, #29) forming one of the nation’s best backcourt scoring duos. Add Nolan Winter’s 13.1 points and 9.8 rebounds (#24 nationally), and Wisconsin has multiple ways to attack you.
Their 80.1% free throw shooting ranks 5th nationally, and they take care of the ball with just 10.3 turnovers per game (#48). The offensive structure is sound – 119.9 adjusted offensive efficiency doesn’t lie.
But here’s what kills me about this Wisconsin team: they can’t guard anybody. Opponents shoot 43.8% from the field (#200) and a brutal 35.1% from three (#285). That three-point defense ranking is bottom-80 nationally. Their defensive rating of 115.3 (#315) puts them in the bottom quarter of Division I. That Nebraska loss? They gave up 90 points. The pattern is clear – when Wisconsin faces competent offensive teams, they leak points.
Villanova’s Situation
Villanova doesn’t have the star power of Wisconsin’s backcourt, but they’re balanced and efficient. Bryce Lindsay leads at 18.1 PPG, while Acaden Lewis (12.8 PPG, 5.8 APG – #39 nationally) runs the show. The real story is Duke Brennan, who ranks 1st nationally in rebounding at 12.9 boards per game. That’s not just impressive – it’s why Villanova ranks 2nd nationally in offensive rebounding percentage at 39.7%.
The Wildcats shoot 38.0% from three (#33) compared to Wisconsin’s 34.3% (#156). Their effective field goal percentage of 57.2% (#39) crushes Wisconsin’s 54.2% (#109). Villanova is simply more efficient with their possessions.
The concern is their 69.2% free throw shooting (#250), which could matter in a close game. That Michigan loss was ugly – they got boat-raced 89-61 – but they’ve responded with four straight wins, including a solid road victory at Pittsburgh.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on the glass and the three-point line. Villanova’s 39.7% offensive rebounding rate (#2) against Wisconsin’s 31.8% (#154) is a massive advantage. Duke Brennan is going to feast on the offensive glass against Nolan Winter. Those second-chance points add up quickly – I’m projecting an extra 8-10 points for Villanova just from offensive rebounds.
The three-point matchup favors Villanova as well. They shoot 38.0% from deep (#33) while Wisconsin allows 35.1% (#285). Meanwhile, Wisconsin shoots 34.3% (#156) against a Villanova defense that admittedly struggles from deep (42.5% opponent three-point percentage, #364). Both teams will get looks from three, but Villanova’s superior shooting percentage gives them the edge.
Here’s the pace element that matters: both teams rank in the bottom-15 nationally in tempo. Wisconsin plays at 64.4 possessions per game (#307), Villanova at 64.9 (#296). This is going to be a rock fight in the low-60s possession range. That compressed number of possessions means variance is reduced and efficiency matters more. A 5.5-point spread in a 65-possession game requires a significant efficiency gap that simply doesn’t exist here.
My Play
I’m taking Villanova +5.5 for 2 units. The adjusted efficiency numbers are virtually identical, Villanova has significant advantages on the glass and from three, and Wisconsin’s defensive issues are being underpriced by this market. The neutral court designation eliminates any home edge, and frankly, Milwaukee might draw more Wisconsin fans but that’s not worth points.
The main risk here is if Blackwell and Boyd get nuclear and combine for 50+, overwhelming Villanova’s solid but unspectacular perimeter defense. But I’ve considered all of that, and Wisconsin’s 315th-ranked defensive rating is still too massive to ignore. Villanova will score enough to keep this within a possession.
I’m projecting Wisconsin 78, Villanova 75. Give me the Wildcats catching nearly a touchdown in what should be a tight, grinding matchup between two top-40 efficiency teams. This number is 2-3 points too high.
