Despite Florida Atlantic’s high-scoring offense, the point spread has held steady at 13.5, suggesting the market respects Saint Mary’s home-court dominance. Bryan Bash explores the betting splits and sharp signals for this December 19th showdown at University Credit Union Pavilion.
The Setup: Florida Atlantic at Saint Mary’s
Saint Mary’s is laying 13.5 at home against Florida Atlantic on Thursday night, and before you start thinking that’s a lot of points in a December non-conference game, let me walk you through why this number actually makes perfect sense. The Gaels are 9-1 and sitting at #19 nationally in adjusted net efficiency according to collegebasketballdata.com, while FAU checks in at #112. That’s not just a rankings gap – it’s a fundamental difference in how these teams operate on both ends of the floor.
Here’s the thing: Saint Mary’s plays a specific brand of basketball that’s built to suffocate opponents at home. They rank 23rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at 97.3, and when you pair elite defense with a methodical offensive attack that ranks 40th in adjusted offensive efficiency at 117.1, you get a team that controls games from start to finish. FAU comes in at 6-3, but those efficiency numbers tell a different story – 75th in adjusted offense, 201st in adjusted defense. That’s a recipe for getting slowly picked apart in Moraga.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Florida Atlantic (6-3) at Saint Mary’s (9-1)
Date: December 19, 2025
Time: 10:00 PM ET
Venue: University Credit Union Pavilion, Moraga, CA
Spread: Saint Mary’s -13.5
Total: 143.5
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency gap here is massive, and I keep coming back to those defensive numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Saint Mary’s holds opponents to 37.8% from the field – that’s 17th nationally – and just 28.4% from three, which ranks 38th in the country. Now look at FAU’s offensive profile: they’re shooting 45.0% from the field (201st) and 33.5% from three (181st). Those aren’t bad numbers against average competition, but against elite defense? That’s a problem.
Here’s why this line makes sense from a pace perspective too. Saint Mary’s plays at a glacial 53.9 possessions per game, ranking 365th in tempo. FAU isn’t much faster at 65.2 possessions (290th), but they’re being forced into the Gaels’ style of play. When you control tempo and play elite defense, you can blow teams out without needing to score 90 points. The Gaels average 81.0 per game while holding opponents to just 63.5 – that’s a 17.5-point differential that shows up night after night.
Do the math over 60 possessions in a Saint Mary’s-controlled game, and you’re looking at the Gaels operating at an offensive rating of 150.3 (3rd nationally) against an FAU defense that sits at 108.7 in adjusted defensive efficiency (201st). That’s not just a mismatch – it’s why double-digit spreads exist in college basketball.
Florida Atlantic’s Situation
FAU does have some things working in their favor. Devin Vanterpool is a legitimate double-double threat at 17.0 points and 7.6 rebounds per game, and Kanaan Carlyle adds another 15.6 points. The Owls also rank 18th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage at 36.8%, which could theoretically create second-chance opportunities against a Saint Mary’s team that ranks 232nd in defensive rebounding.
But here’s where it falls apart: FAU ranks 358th – dead last – in opponent three-point percentage at 39.9%. That’s catastrophic against a Saint Mary’s team shooting 39.7% from deep as a team (18th nationally). The Gaels don’t just shoot threes well – they’re selective and efficient, ranking 87th in effective field goal percentage at 54.9%.
The recent results tell the story too. FAU beat up on UAlbany and Saint Leo, but lost to St. Bonaventure and George Mason in competitive games. Those are solid mid-major programs, but they’re not playing at the level Saint Mary’s operates at defensively.
Saint Mary’s Situation
The Gaels are coming off a tough one-point loss at Boise State, but look at the road wins before that: at Virginia Tech, at Wichita State, at Davidson. This is a team that travels well and handles business away from home, which means they should be absolutely locked in at University Credit Union Pavilion.
Paulius Murauskas leads the way at 18.0 points per game, but the real story is the balance. Mikey Lewis adds 16.8, Joshua Dent chips in 12.3 with 4.8 assists (92nd nationally), and Andrew McKeever controls the glass with 10.7 rebounds per game (12th in the nation). That’s four legitimate scoring threats, all operating within a system that ranks 7th nationally in free throw percentage at 79.6%.
The main advantage here is Saint Mary’s ability to defend without fouling and execute in the half-court. They rank 15th nationally in opponent points per game at 63.5, and they do it by forcing tough shots. Against an FAU team that ranks 279th in assists per game at just 12.8, the Gaels can load up on individual defenders and make the Owls beat them one-on-one.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on the three-point line, and the numbers are brutal for FAU. Saint Mary’s shoots 39.7% from deep while holding opponents to 28.4%. FAU shoots 33.5% from three and allows 39.9%. That’s a swing of over 12 percentage points on both ends of the floor. In a game with 25 combined three-point attempts, that’s the difference between winning by 8 and winning by 18.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: FAU’s 201st-ranked adjusted defense against Saint Mary’s 40th-ranked adjusted offense. The Gaels are going to get quality looks all night, and with their 7th-ranked free throw shooting, they’ll convert at the line when FAU inevitably fouls trying to contest shots.
The pace factor works entirely in Saint Mary’s favor too. At 53.9 possessions per game, the Gaels will grind this into exactly the type of game where defensive execution and half-court offense matter most. FAU doesn’t generate much in transition (117 fast break points total) and ranks 116th in turnovers per game, so they’re not going to speed this up or create chaos.
Even FAU’s one major advantage – offensive rebounding at 36.8% (18th nationally) – gets neutralized by Saint Mary’s discipline. The Gaels don’t give up easy putbacks, and with Andrew McKeever ranking 12th nationally in rebounds per game, they’ll control the defensive glass when it matters.
My Play
Saint Mary’s -13.5 for 2 units
I’ve considered the offensive rebounding edge for FAU and the potential for a slow-paced game to keep this closer, but the efficiency gap is still too massive to ignore. Saint Mary’s is 19th in adjusted net efficiency for a reason – they’re a legitimately elite team that should be competing for a WCC title. FAU is a solid American Athletic Conference squad, but they’re outmatched on both ends here.
The main risk here is if Saint Mary’s comes out flat after that tough loss at Boise State, or if FAU gets hot from three early and builds confidence. But betting against a team that defends like the Gaels do at home, against an opponent that ranks 358th in opponent three-point defense? That’s not a risk I’m worried about.
I’m projecting Saint Mary’s 76, FAU 59. The Gaels control tempo, force FAU into contested jumpers all night, and pull away in the second half when their depth and execution take over. This number should be closer to 15, so we’re getting value at 13.5.
