he Philadelphia 76ers return home to host the Dallas Mavericks in a primetime clash that hinges entirely on the health of the league’s most dominant big men. Bryan Bash dives into the efficiency metrics to see if Philadelphia’s elite home defense can contain a Dallas frontcourt that has suddenly found its offensive rhythm.
The Setup: Mavericks at 76ers
The Philadelphia 76ers are laying 2 points at home against the Dallas Mavericks on December 20, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Philly’s 14-11 and sitting 5th in the East. Dallas is 11-17, stuck at 11th in the West, and limping in at 3-7 on the road. The market sees a home team with momentum coming off a rare road win at MSG, facing a struggling Dallas squad that just survived overtime against Detroit. But here’s the thing — once you dig into the matchup data and account for what Dallas actually does when healthy, this line starts to feel like it’s giving Philly credit for a depth advantage that might not exist in this specific spot.
Let me walk you through why this line exists, and more importantly, why I think there’s value on the other side. Dallas has Anthony Davis listed as probable after an illness, and if he plays — which all signs suggest he will — this Mavericks team has more offensive firepower than their record indicates. Cooper Flagg is averaging 25.4 points over his last eight games, and the kid just dropped 23 and 10 in overtime against Detroit. Meanwhile, Joel Embiid was out Friday with an illness and right knee issues, and even if he returns Saturday, we’re looking at a 76ers squad that’s been leaning heavily on Tyrese Maxey to carry the offensive load. That’s not a sustainable formula against a team that can score in bunches.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 20, 2025, 7:00 ET
Venue: Xfinity Mobile Arena
Spread: Philadelphia 76ers -2.0 (-110) | Dallas Mavericks +2.0 (-110)
Moneyline: 76ers -135 | Mavericks +110
Total: 227.0 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on Philly -2 for a few obvious reasons. First, home court. The 76ers are 8-7 at home this season, which isn’t dominant but it’s respectable. Second, the records — 14-11 versus 11-17 tells a story of a team that’s figured some things out versus one that’s still searching. Third, Dallas is brutal on the road at 3-7, and road teams in the NBA are fighting uphill battles on both ends when they’re already struggling to find consistency.
But I keep coming back to this efficiency gap, or lack thereof. Tyrese Maxey is putting up 31.5 points per game this season, which is elite, but he’s doing it because he has to. Joel Embiid is averaging just 20.5 points and 6.6 rebounds — those are not MVP-level numbers, and that’s not just a stat, it’s how this Philly offense tilts when he’s not dominating. Paul George is chipping in 17.1 points, but this is a team that’s asking Maxey to be the engine, the closer, and the safety valve all at once.
Dallas, meanwhile, has Anthony Davis at 19.6 points and 10.8 rebounds, Cooper Flagg at 18.6 points and heating up, and P.J. Washington adding 16.0 points and 7.9 boards. That’s three guys who can get you 15-plus on any given night, and when Davis is healthy — which he’s expected to be — this team has the kind of balanced scoring that can keep games tight even when they’re not playing their best basketball. The line exists because of narrative and record, but once you factor in the actual talent on the floor, two points feels like it’s giving Philly too much credit for being home.
Dallas Mavericks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Mavericks are 11-17, but that record doesn’t tell you how close most of these games have been. They just went to overtime with Detroit and came away with a win behind Cooper Flagg’s 23 and 10. That’s a 19-year-old kid who’s averaging over 25 points in his last eight games — he’s not just contributing, he’s taking over possessions and closing games. When you pair that with Anthony Davis, who’s probable for Saturday and averaging a near double-double at 19.6 and 10.8, you’ve got a frontcourt that can match up with anyone.
The concern is obvious: Kyrie Irving is out indefinitely with a knee injury, and that’s a massive hole in the backcourt. Klay Thompson is questionable with left knee soreness, which could further limit their perimeter depth. But here’s the thing — Dallas has learned to play without Irving, and they’ve found ways to generate offense through Davis in the post and Flagg in transition. P.J. Washington at 16.0 points and 7.9 rebounds gives them a third scoring option who can stretch the floor and crash the glass.
The main risk here is the road record. At 3-7 away from home, Dallas hasn’t proven they can consistently execute in hostile environments. But when you look at the talent and the recent form — especially Flagg’s surge — this isn’t a team that should be getting two points against a Philly squad that’s dealing with its own injury concerns and offensive limitations.
Philadelphia 76ers Breakdown: The Other Side
Philadelphia is 14-11 and coming off a statement win in New York, where Tyrese Maxey dropped 30 and VJ Edgecombe added 23. That’s a big road win at MSG, where visiting teams rarely survive, and it’s the kind of performance that makes you think this team is figuring out how to win without a fully healthy Joel Embiid. But let’s be clear: Embiid was out Friday with an illness and right knee issues, and even if he plays Saturday, we’re looking at a guy who’s averaging 20.5 points and 6.6 rebounds this season. Those are not the numbers of a dominant two-way force.
Maxey is carrying this offense at 31.5 points and 7.2 assists per game, and while that’s impressive, it’s also a lot of pressure on one player. Paul George is at 17.1 points, but he’s not the consistent second option you need in a tight game. Kelly Oubre Jr. is out with a sprained left knee, and Trendon Watford is also sidelined, which limits their bench depth and forces more minutes on Maxey and the starters.
The 76ers are 8-7 at home, which is fine but not intimidating. When you do the math over 96 possessions, this is a team that needs Maxey to be perfect and Embiid to show up healthy and engaged. Against a Dallas team that can score with Davis, Flagg, and Washington, that’s asking a lot. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests, especially if Embiid is less than 100 percent.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the paint and on the glass. Dallas has Anthony Davis and P.J. Washington combining for nearly 19 rebounds per game, and they’ve got the size to challenge Philly’s interior even with Embiid on the floor. Cooper Flagg is pulling down 6.4 boards and pushing the pace in transition, which is where Dallas does their best work. If they can turn this into a faster game with more possessions, they’ve got the offensive firepower to keep it close or even pull ahead.
Philadelphia wants to slow this down and let Maxey operate in the halfcourt, but that’s a dangerous strategy when you’re asking one guy to create against a defense that can load up on him. The 76ers don’t have the secondary creation they need if Embiid isn’t dominating, and that’s where Dallas can exploit them. If Davis is healthy and Flagg continues his recent surge, the Mavericks have the balance to match Philly’s punch-for-punch.
The total is set at 227.0, which feels about right given both teams’ offensive capabilities. But the spread is where the value lives. Philly at -2 is pricing in home court and record, but it’s not accounting for how close this matchup actually is when you break down the rosters and recent form. I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Dallas Mavericks +2.0 (-110) | 1.5 Units
I’m taking Dallas plus the points here, and I’m comfortable laying 1.5 units on it. The Mavericks have the offensive balance to keep this game within a possession, and if Anthony Davis plays — which all signs point to yes — they’ve got the frontcourt to match up with Philly’s size. Cooper Flagg is playing the best basketball of his young career, and P.J. Washington gives them a third scoring option that can stretch the floor and create mismatches.
The main risk is the road record and the potential for Dallas to fold late if Philly makes a run. But at 3-7 away from home, most of those losses have been competitive, and this isn’t a team that’s getting blown out. They’re finding ways to hang around, and in a game where Philly might be without a fully healthy Embiid, two points feels like too many.
This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests. Give me the Mavericks plus the points, and let’s see if Flagg can keep this surge going on the road.
