The Indiana Pacers head to the Big Easy tonight, looking to capitalize on a New Orleans Pelicans team that has struggled to defend its home court all season. Bryan Bash breaks down the efficiency gap and why Andrew Nembhard’s 31-point surge against the Knicks signals a turning point for Indiana’s road offense.
The Setup: Pacers at Pelicans
The New Orleans Pelicans are laying 3 points at home against the Indiana Pacers on Saturday night at Smoothie King Center, and on the surface, this number makes sense. You’ve got two teams sitting at the bottom of the Western Conference standings—the Pacers at 6-21 and the Pelicans at 6-22—and the home team getting a field goal in what should be a coin-flip matchup. Here’s the thing: when you dig into how these teams actually operate, that 3-point cushion starts to look like the market is giving New Orleans credit for something they haven’t consistently shown at home this season.
Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I think there’s value on the other side. The Pelicans just pulled off a dramatic comeback against Houston, erasing a 25-point deficit to win in overtime behind Saddiq Bey’s 29 points and Trey Murphy’s 27. That kind of win creates narrative momentum, and the market is pricing in some belief that New Orleans has found something. Meanwhile, Indiana is coming off a brutal one-possession loss to the Knicks where Jalen Brunson hit a go-ahead three with 4.4 seconds left. The Pacers are 1-11 on the road, which is about as bad as it gets, but I keep coming back to this: are the Pelicans at 4-12 at home really in a position to lay three points against anyone?
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 20, 2025, 7:00 ET
Venue: Smoothie King Center
Spread: Pelicans -3.0 (-110) / Pacers +3.0 (-110)
Total: 235.5 (Over/Under -110)
Moneyline: Pelicans -152 / Pacers +123
Why This Line Exists
The market is giving New Orleans this 3-point cushion based on three factors: home court, the Pacers’ abysmal road record, and the recent momentum from that Houston comeback. I get why that number exists. The Pelicans have Trey Murphy averaging 21.3 points per game and Zion Williamson chipping in 20.7 PPG when healthy, while the Pacers are missing Aaron Nesmith and Ben Sheppard. That’s rotation depth that Indiana desperately needs, especially on the defensive end.
But once you factor in what home court has actually meant for New Orleans this season, the picture changes. The Pelicans are 4-12 at Smoothie King Center—that’s a .250 winning percentage at home. They’re not defending their building, and they’re not covering spreads consistently when favored. The Pacers, meanwhile, have Pascal Siakam averaging 23.8 points and 6.8 rebounds, Bennedict Mathurin putting up 19.8 PPG, and Andrew Nembhard running the offense at 18.0 points and 6.5 assists per game. That’s three legitimate offensive weapons who can score in different ways.
The total sitting at 235.5 tells you the market expects pace and scoring, which makes sense given both teams’ offensive profiles. But the spread at 3 assumes New Orleans can maintain separation over 48 minutes against a Pacers team that just hung with the Knicks until the final possession. That’s not just a stat—it’s how this game tilts.
Pacers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Indiana’s 6-21 record is ugly, and that 1-11 road mark is even worse. But let’s talk about what they actually do on the floor. Siakam is their most consistent offensive player, giving them 23.8 points per game with the ability to create his own shot in the mid-range and finish at the rim. Mathurin provides secondary scoring at 19.8 PPG, and Nembhard is the facilitator at 6.5 assists per game, which is crucial for keeping the offense flowing.
The problem for Indiana is depth and defense. With Nesmith out for another few weeks and Sheppard ruled out for this game, they’re thin on the wing. Tony Bradley is questionable with a fractured thumb, which could impact their frontcourt rotation. These injuries matter because they limit Indiana’s ability to match up defensively and sustain their rotation over 48 minutes.
But here’s what I keep coming back to: the Pacers just played a competitive game against a Knicks team that’s significantly better than New Orleans. They were in position to win until Brunson’s late three. That tells me they’re capable of hanging in tight games, even on the road. When you’re getting 3 points, you don’t need perfection—you need competitiveness.
Pelicans Breakdown: The Other Side
New Orleans has talent, no question. Trey Murphy is averaging 21.3 points and 6.4 rebounds, and he just dropped 27 in that comeback win over Houston. Zion is contributing 20.7 PPG and 5.4 boards when he’s on the floor, and Jordan Poole adds 17.4 points per game from the backcourt. That’s a trio that can score in bunches.
The issue is consistency and home performance. The Pelicans are 4-12 at Smoothie King Center, which means they’re losing three out of every four games at home. That comeback against Houston was impressive, but it also required them to dig out of a 25-point hole in the third quarter. That’s not sustainable winning basketball—that’s desperation mixed with variance. Dejounte Murray remains out, which removes a key playmaker and defender from their rotation.
When you look at their 6-22 overall record, the Pelicans are barely better than the Pacers despite being at home. They’re ranked 15th in the conference, just one spot ahead of Indiana at 14th. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests because both teams are fundamentally flawed, and home court hasn’t been an advantage for New Orleans.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether the Pelicans can sustain offensive efficiency over a full 48 minutes and whether the Pacers can keep it close through their top-three scoring options. With a total of 235.5, we’re looking at a pace-up environment where both teams will have plenty of possessions to work with. That favors Indiana’s ability to stay within striking distance because they can score through Siakam, Mathurin, and Nembhard in different ways.
The Pelicans’ advantage should be depth, but with Murray out and their home struggles documented, I’m not convinced they can pull away from a Pacers team that just competed with New York down the stretch. When you do the math over 95-100 possessions, a 3-point spread assumes New Orleans wins by two possessions while accounting for home court. I’ve accounted for the home court—and it still doesn’t get there.
The main risk here is if Zion and Murphy both get hot early and the Pelicans build a double-digit lead that forces Indiana into desperation mode. But that Houston game showed us that New Orleans is just as likely to fall behind early and have to claw back. This feels like a game that stays within one or two possessions throughout, which is exactly where you want to be with 3 points in your pocket.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Indiana Pacers +3.0 (-110) | 1.5 Units
I’m taking the Pacers plus the 3 points at Smoothie King Center. The market is giving New Orleans credit for home court and recent momentum, but the data doesn’t support a 3-point edge for a team that’s 4-12 at home. Indiana has the offensive firepower with Siakam, Mathurin, and Nembhard to keep this game competitive, and they just proved they can hang with better teams on the road against the Knicks.
The main risk is Indiana’s thin rotation due to injuries, but in a matchup between two teams sitting at the bottom of the conference, I’ll take the points with the team that doesn’t have to win—they just have to keep it close. This line should be closer to pick’em based on how both teams have performed, which means we’re getting value on the Pacers at +3. I’m confident in this spot, and I’m backing it with 1.5 units.
