The Indiana Hoosiers return to Bloomington as massive favorites against a disciplined Siena Saints squad. Bryan Bash breaks down why Indiana’s top-15 assist rate and perimeter shooting are the ultimate counters to Siena’s slow-paced defensive structure.
The Setup: Siena at Indiana
Indiana’s laying 23.5 points at home against Siena, and I can already hear some of you pumping the brakes. Twenty-three and a half? Against a 9-2 team? In December? Look, I get the hesitation. But when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this isn’t David versus Goliath – it’s a mid-major running into a buzz saw.
The Hoosiers sit at #20 nationally in adjusted net efficiency at +19.7, while Siena checks in at #122 with a +4.7 mark. Here’s the thing – that 15-point gap in adjusted efficiency is massive, and it’s exactly the kind of chasm that produces blowouts when the better team is playing at home. Indiana’s coming off a rough stretch with three losses in their last five, but all three came on the road against quality opponents. Now they’re back in Assembly Hall, and Siena’s crawling pace (#357 at 58.6 possessions per game) actually plays right into Indiana’s hands.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Siena (9-2) @ Indiana (7-2)
Date: December 22, 2025
Time: 6:00 PM ET
Venue: Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN
Spread: Indiana -23.5
Total: 143.5/144
Conference: MAAC vs Big Ten
Why This Number Makes Sense
Let me walk you through the efficiency gap, because it’s staggering. According to collegebasketballdata.com, Indiana ranks #47 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at 116.7, while Siena sits at #176 with a 107.5 mark. That’s a 9.2-point difference per 100 possessions on offense alone. On the defensive side, it gets worse for the Saints – Indiana checks in at #20 with a 97.0 adjusted defensive rating, compared to Siena’s #82 mark at 102.9.
Do that math over a game, and you’re looking at a raw efficiency advantage that projects to a margin well north of 20 points. Indiana’s offensive rating of 120.9 (#64) against Siena’s defensive rating of 104.3 (#156) creates a mismatch that should produce easy baskets. The Hoosiers shoot 56.9% effective field goal percentage (#44 nationally) and rank #14 in the country in assists per game at 19.3. That’s not just ball movement – it’s why Indiana generates quality shots possession after possession.
The pace factor actually helps Indiana here. Siena wants to crawl at 58.6 possessions per game, but Indiana plays at 70.7 (#112). The Hoosiers will dictate tempo at home, and even if this game settles around 65-68 possessions, that’s enough for the efficiency gap to manifest into a comfortable cover.
Siena’s Situation
The Saints are 9-2, but context matters. Their signature win came at Maine (64-60), and they’ve feasted on MAAC competition. Gavin Doty leads them at 14.5 points per game, while Justice Shoats runs the show at 5.3 assists per game (#61 nationally). Their defense has been legitimately solid – they rank #10 in the country in opponent points per game at 61.4 and #47 in opponent three-point percentage at 28.9%.
Here’s where it falls apart: Siena ranks #334 nationally in three-point shooting at just 29.0%. Against Indiana’s #28-ranked opponent field goal defense (38.5%), the Saints are going to struggle to generate efficient offense. They score just 70.5 points per game (#307), and their adjusted offensive efficiency of 107.5 (#176) reflects a team that grinds out possessions without creating explosive scoring opportunities.
Their recent loss at Vermont (69-83) exposed what happens when Siena faces a team that can score. The Saints got pushed out of their comfort zone, and that’s exactly what Indiana will do on Sunday.
Indiana’s Situation
The Hoosiers are 7-2 with losses at Kentucky, Louisville, and Minnesota – all road games against power conference opponents. At home, they’ve been dominant, including a 113-72 demolition of Penn State and a 78-58 win over Chicago State. Tucker DeVries leads the way at 17.8 points per game (#99 nationally), while Lamar Wilkerson adds 16.0 (#207). Tayton Conerway orchestrates at 4.4 assists per game (#117).
Indiana’s offensive efficiency is elite – they rank #39 in true shooting percentage at 61.1% and #44 in effective field goal percentage at 56.9%. The Hoosiers take care of the ball (#17 in turnover ratio at 0.1) and rank #25 in turnovers per game at just 9.8. That discipline matters against Siena’s patient defense.
Defensively, Indiana ranks #29 in defensive rating at 93.9 and #28 in opponent field goal percentage at 38.5%. They force opponents into tough shots, and against a Siena team that can’t shoot threes (29.0%, #334), the Hoosiers can pack the paint and dare the Saints to beat them from deep.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on Indiana’s ability to speed up Siena and force them into uncomfortable possessions. The Saints want 58-59 possessions of methodical basketball. Indiana will push the pace to 68-70, and that extra 10 possessions is worth 12-15 points given the efficiency gap.
I keep coming back to those three-point shooting numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Siena shoots 29.0% from deep (#334) while Indiana shoots 36.2% (#88) and defends the three-pointer reasonably well. The Saints simply don’t have the firepower to keep pace if Indiana gets hot from the perimeter, and the Hoosiers’ 19.3 assists per game (#14) suggests they’ll generate plenty of open looks.
The rebounding battle favors Indiana slightly – the Hoosiers grab 37.1 boards per game (#173) compared to Siena’s 34.5 (#265). More importantly, Indiana’s offensive rebounding percentage of 25.7% is actually lower than Siena’s 31.4%, but the Saints won’t get many second-chance opportunities against Indiana’s size and athleticism.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Indiana’s #20 adjusted defensive efficiency versus Siena’s #176 adjusted offensive efficiency. That’s a 5.5-point gap per 100 possessions just on that end of the floor. Combined with Indiana’s offensive advantage, you’re looking at a double-digit edge that should manifest into a 25-30 point win.
My Play
The Pick: Indiana -23.5 (2.5 units)
I’ve considered the pace concerns, the December spot, and Siena’s solid defensive metrics. The adjusted efficiency gap is still too massive to ignore. Indiana sits at #20 nationally in adjusted net efficiency while Siena checks in at #122 – that’s a 15-point chasm that should produce a blowout at Assembly Hall.
The main risk here is if Indiana comes out flat after that three-game road losing streak and lets Siena hang around into the second half. But the Hoosiers need a confidence-builder at home, and this is the perfect opponent to get right against. I’m projecting something in the neighborhood of Indiana 87, Siena 60.
Siena’s crawling pace keeps this from being a 40-point massacre, but 24 points is right in the sweet spot of what the efficiency numbers project. Lay the points with the Hoosiers.
