Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders – Week 17 NFL Picks & Predictions
The line has jumped from -5.5 to -6.5 for the Cowboys at Commanders. Rich Crew breaks down the efficiency gap and provides his free pick for this divisional clash.
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Thursday, December 25, 2025
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD
Odds: Dallas Cowboys -6.5 | Total: 51
The Rundown
This Christmas Day matchup doesn’t carry playoff implications, but from a betting standpoint, it’s still very live. Dallas opened as a 5.5-point road favorite and has been pushed to -6.5, while the total has climbed from 49.5 to 51. That movement tells you where the market is leaning.
The main driver is Washington’s quarterback situation. Jayden Daniels is shut down, and Marcus Mariota is questionable with a hand injury. That uncertainty alone is enough to move a number — especially against a Dallas offense that doesn’t need much help to score.
From an efficiency standpoint, the gap is clear. Dallas ranks 5th in points per game at 28.3, while Washington sits 24th at 20.6. The SBS Power Stats reinforce that separation: Dallas needs just 13.91 yards to score a point, while Washington needs 15.59. Defensively, the Cowboys are also tighter, allowing 12.56 yards per point compared to Washington’s 14.21.
Points per play adds another layer. Dallas checks in at 0.433 (7th), Washington at 0.349 (23rd). Over a typical 11–12 drive game, that difference alone often turns into a touchdown on the scoreboard.
Why Dallas Has the Edge
The advantages that matter most all lean Dallas. Their 28.3 points per game face a Washington defense giving up 26.9, and the yards-per-play matchup is just as lopsided — Dallas at 6.0 (4th) versus Washington allowing 6.1 (31st).
Red zone efficiency doesn’t create a massive edge either way, but Dallas has been more reliable sustaining drives. The Cowboys convert 41.99% on third down, while Washington allows conversions at a similar clip. That may not sound dramatic, but over the course of a game, those extra snaps add up.
The turnover picture also favors Dallas — or at least hurts Washington more. Both teams sit near the bottom of the league in turnover margin, but Washington gives the ball away more frequently. Against a Dallas offense built around explosive plays, that’s how games get out of hand quickly.
The Numbers That Matter
- Points Per Game: Dallas 28.3 (5th) vs Washington 20.6 (24th)
- Yards Per Point: Dallas 13.91 off / 12.56 def vs Washington 15.59 off / 14.21 def
- Points Per Play: Dallas 0.433 vs Washington 0.349
- Yards Per Play: Dallas 6.0 vs Washington 5.4
- 3rd Down Conversion %: Dallas 41.99% vs Washington 37.21%
- Red Zone TD %: Dallas 55.93% vs Washington 66.67%
The passing matchup is where this can really tilt. Dallas ranks first in passing yards per game at 274.3, powered by Dak Prescott’s 68.56% completion rate and 7.6 yards per attempt. That lines up against a Washington pass defense allowing 241.7 yards per game and a league-worst 8.3 yards per attempt.
Washington’s best path is on the ground. They rank 7th in yards per rush and 4th in rushing yards per game, and that could help them shorten the game. The issue is volume. Even with a run-heavy approach, it’s hard to keep pace with a Dallas offense that scores efficiently through the air.
Market Analysis & Line Movement
The move from -5.5 to -6.5 is meaningful, crossing through the key number of six. It reflects growing confidence in Dallas rather than panic around Washington’s quarterback situation.
The total jumping to 51 fits the profile as well. Both defenses rank in the bottom third, and Dallas has consistently pushed games higher. The Cowboys sit at 10-4-1 to the over, while Washington’s results have been more mixed.
If Washington ends up starting a backup quarterback, the spread could test -7, and the total may pull back slightly. As it stands, the market appears comfortable with Dallas controlling this game.
Head-to-Head Efficiency Matchups
| Metric | Dallas | Washington | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 28.3 | 20.6 | Dallas |
| Yards Per Point | 13.91 | 15.59 | Dallas |
| Points Per Play | 0.433 | 0.349 | Dallas |
| Yards Per Play | 6.0 | 5.4 | Dallas |
| 3rd Down % | 41.99% | 37.21% | Dallas |
| Red Zone TD % | 55.93% | 66.67% | Washington |
| Turnover Margin | -0.5 | -0.8 | Dallas |
The grid reinforces the same conclusion: Dallas wins early downs, converts more often, and creates higher-quality scoring chances. Washington’s red zone efficiency is solid, but getting there consistently has been the issue.
Game flow points toward Dallas pulling away if they avoid self-inflicted mistakes. Washington can hang around with the run game, but their passing profile doesn’t match Dallas’s ability to strike quickly.
The Bottom Line & Predictions
Prediction
Dallas Cowboys 31, Washington Commanders 20
Best Bets
- ★★★ Dallas Cowboys -6.5 (-115)
- ★★ Over 51 (-110)
- ★ Dak Prescott Over 1.5 Passing TDs
Game Flow Projection: Dallas’s efficiency through the air creates separation over time. Even if Washington leans on the run to manage tempo, the Cowboys’ ability to convert third downs and generate explosive plays should lead to a two-score margin by the second half.
KEY_ANGLE: Dallas’s edge in points per play and yards per point creates a scoring gap Washington struggles to close, especially with quarterback uncertainty limiting their ceiling.
