Ohio State enters the Schottenstein Center as a massive favorite, but the metrics suggest the efficiency gap might be even wider. Bryan Bash analyzes why the Buckeyes’ top-50 defense is the key to covering this buy-game spread.
The Setup: Grambling at Ohio State
Ohio State is laying 27.5 points at home against Grambling on Monday afternoon, and I can already hear the reaction: That’s way too many points, even for a buy game. Look, I get the hesitation. Nearly four touchdowns is a massive number in any sport. But here’s the thing – when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this isn’t some trap game where a scrappy underdog has hidden value. This is a fundamental mismatch between a top-40 national program and a SWAC team that ranks 346th in defensive rating. The Buckeyes are 7-1 with elite shooting metrics, while Grambling sits at 3-6 and plays at a glacial pace that actually works against them in this spot. Let me walk you through why this number, as scary as it looks, might not be high enough.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Grambling (3-6) @ Ohio State (7-1)
Date: December 23, 2025
Time: 2:00 PM ET
Venue: Schottenstein Center, Columbus, OH
Spread: Ohio State -27.5
Total: 150.5
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency gap here is absolutely massive. Ohio State posts an adjusted offensive efficiency of 116.9, ranking 44th nationally according to collegebasketballdata.com. Grambling? They’re at 102.3, ranked 281st. That’s a 14.6-point gap per 100 possessions on offense alone. But here’s where this gets ugly for the Tigers: their adjusted defensive efficiency sits at 106.3, which actually isn’t terrible at 143rd nationally. The problem is Ohio State’s defense ranks 52nd at 101.3, while Grambling’s offense is barely functional against quality competition.
Here’s what that means in real terms: Ohio State should score efficiently almost every trip down the floor, while Grambling will struggle to generate quality looks against a Buckeyes defense that holds opponents to just 26.7% from three – 15th-best in the country. The Buckeyes are shooting 53.0% from the field (3rd nationally) with an effective field goal percentage of 61.0% (7th). That’s not just good shooting – it’s elite execution that turns possessions into points at a rate Grambling simply cannot match.
Grambling’s Situation
The Tigers do have one thing working in their favor: they can generate steals at 8.6 per game, ranking 71st nationally. Antonio Munoz leads a balanced scoring attack at 12.2 points per game, with four other players averaging between 9.1 and 9.3 points. But here’s the brutal reality – Grambling plays at a pace of just 60.4 possessions per game, 344th in the nation. They’re the eighth-slowest team in college basketball, and that matters tremendously in this matchup.
The Tigers rank 347th in rebounds per game at just 31.0, and while their offensive rebounding rate of 31.9% (152nd) is respectable, they simply don’t have the size or athleticism to compete on the glass against a Big Ten program. Their turnover numbers are catastrophic: 15.7 per game (354th) with a turnover ratio of 0.3 that ranks 363rd nationally. Against Ohio State’s disciplined offense that only coughs it up 11.8 times per game, Grambling won’t be able to manufacture the extra possessions they desperately need to stay competitive.
Ohio State’s Situation
The Buckeyes have been one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country, ranking 32nd in scoring at 88.4 points per game. Bruce Thornton is an absolute stud, leading the team at 20.1 points per game (32nd nationally) with 4.0 assists. Christoph Tilly and John Mobley Jr. both average over 14 points, giving Ohio State multiple weapons that Grambling simply cannot account for defensively.
What jumps off the page is Ohio State’s shooting efficiency. That true shooting percentage of 65.4% ranks 5th in the nation, and they’re getting there with balanced attack – 17.1 assists per game (55th) shows this isn’t hero ball. They share the rock and generate quality looks. The Buckeyes play at a pace of 70.5 possessions (119th), which is significantly faster than Grambling’s crawl. That 10-possession difference per game is massive when you’re dealing with this kind of efficiency gap.
Ohio State’s defense holds opponents to just 69.1 points per game (94th) with a defensive rating of 98.0 (59th). They’re particularly stingy from deep, and Grambling shoots just 32.5% from three (225th). The matchup couldn’t be worse for the Tigers.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on pace and efficiency, and both factors heavily favor Ohio State. Let me show you the math: Ohio State will push the tempo to around 70 possessions. At their adjusted offensive efficiency of 116.9 against Grambling’s actual defensive rating of 120.0, the Buckeyes should score somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.15 points per possession. Do that math over 70 possessions, and you’re looking at 80-plus points for Ohio State.
Now flip it: Grambling’s adjusted offense of 102.3 against Ohio State’s elite defense means the Tigers will be fortunate to crack 1.0 points per possession. Over 70 trips, that’s 65-70 points maximum, and I think that’s generous given how poorly they protect the ball. The turnover differential alone could be worth 10-12 points in this game.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Ohio State’s 61.0% effective field goal percentage against Grambling’s defense that allows 45.5% shooting (273rd). The Buckeyes will get whatever looks they want in the halfcourt, and Grambling’s slow pace actually works against them here because it means fewer possessions to make up ground when they inevitably fall behind early.
I keep coming back to those turnover numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Grambling ranks 354th in turnovers per game and 363rd in turnover ratio. Ohio State will convert those mistakes into easy buckets, and the Tigers don’t have the firepower to trade baskets.
My Play
I’m backing Ohio State -27.5 with confidence. The main risk here is if the Buckeyes take their foot off the gas in the second half with a comfortable lead, but this is a December tune-up game where Ohio State needs to build rhythm and confidence. They’ve lost three of their last five, including a heartbreaker to North Carolina, and they’ll want to make a statement before conference play heats up.
The efficiency gap is too massive, the pace favors the favorite, and Grambling’s turnover issues will create extra possessions that Ohio State will convert into points. I’m projecting something like Ohio State 91, Grambling 58, which clears the number comfortably.
This is a 3-unit play on Ohio State -27.5. Yeah, it’s a big number, but the matchup math supports it. The Buckeyes should win this one going away.
