Los Angeles Rams vs Atlanta Falcons – Week 17 NFL Picks & Predictions
Can the Falcons find enough offensive rhythm to keep pace with the league’s highest-scoring team? Rich Crew breaks down the efficiency gap and provides his top ATS pick for this Monday Night Football showdown.
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Monday, December 29, 2025
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Odds: Los Angeles Rams -7 | Total: 49.5
The Rundown
This line opened around Rams -7.5, briefly touched -8/8.5, and has now settled at -7 across much of the market. That move matters. We’re no longer laying as much as a full two-possession number, and the adjustment gives Los Angeles a cleaner margin relative to the underlying efficiency gap.
The total has drifted down from 50.5 to 49.5, signaling some skepticism about Atlanta’s ability to keep pace offensively. That concern is well-founded when you look at how these teams generate points.
From an efficiency standpoint, the gap is still significant. The Rams lead the league in scoring at 30.5 points per game and rank first in yards per play at 6.2. Atlanta sits 26th in scoring at 20.5 points per game. The yards-per-point split — 13.02 for Los Angeles versus 16.64 for Atlanta — highlights how much more efficiently the Rams convert yardage into points.
Defensively, Atlanta does narrow the gap slightly, but over the course of 11–12 drives, Los Angeles still projects to separate by roughly a touchdown. At -7, that projection aligns much more comfortably with the number.
Why Los Angeles Has the Edge
Los Angeles holds advantages in the areas that tend to matter most when laying points. They score efficiently, protect the football, and consistently finish drives. Atlanta’s defense allows 24.0 points per game, which creates a difficult matchup against an offense averaging more than 30.
The most decisive metric remains points per play. The Rams generate 0.480 points per snap, while Atlanta sits at 0.329. That differential compounds quickly, especially in a game where Los Angeles should sustain longer drives and limit empty possessions.
Red zone efficiency further tilts the field. The Rams convert 65.22% of red zone trips into touchdowns, while Atlanta has been average defending in that area. Los Angeles also converts fourth downs at a high rate, extending drives that might otherwise stall.
Turnovers continue to favor the Rams. They carry a +0.8 turnover margin per game compared to Atlanta’s +0.1. With Matthew Stafford protecting the ball at an elite rate, Los Angeles consistently starts drives in favorable field position.
The Numbers That Matter
- Points Per Game: Los Angeles 30.5 (1st) vs Atlanta 20.5 (26th)
- Yards Per Point: Los Angeles 13.02 off / 16.41 def vs Atlanta 16.64 off / 13.47 def
- Points Per Play: Los Angeles 0.480 vs Atlanta 0.329
- Yards Per Play: Los Angeles 6.2 vs Atlanta 5.5
- Third Down Conversion: Los Angeles 38.04% vs Atlanta 33.33%
- Red Zone TD Rate: Los Angeles 65.22% vs Atlanta 64.44%
Los Angeles also holds a clear advantage through the air. The Rams average over 270 passing yards per game, while Atlanta’s secondary has struggled to limit explosive plays. Stafford’s efficiency and decision-making create consistent chunk gains without requiring high-risk throws.
The run game provides balance rather than dominance, but it’s enough to keep Atlanta honest. More importantly, the Rams convert drives into touchdowns at a higher rate, which becomes critical when laying a single touchdown instead of more.
Penalty discipline quietly adds another edge. Los Angeles commits the fewest penalties in the league, while Atlanta gives away field position more frequently. Over a full game, those hidden yards tend to show up on the scoreboard.
Market Analysis & Line Movement
The move back to -7 reflects some resistance at -8, but it doesn’t change the core evaluation. If anything, it improves the entry point. The Rams don’t need a dominant performance to cover this number — sustained efficiency and clean execution should be sufficient.
The total dipping to 49.5 continues to reflect Atlanta’s offensive ceiling rather than any downgrade to Los Angeles. If the Falcons struggle to reach the low 20s, the Rams don’t need to fully open the playbook.
Head-to-Head Efficiency Matchups
| Metric | Los Angeles | Atlanta | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 30.5 | 20.5 | Los Angeles |
| Yards Per Point (Offense) | 13.02 | 16.64 | Los Angeles |
| Points Per Play | 0.480 | 0.329 | Los Angeles |
| Yards Per Play | 6.2 | 5.5 | Los Angeles |
| Third Down Conversion | 38.04% | 33.33% | Los Angeles |
| Red Zone TD Rate | 65.22% | 64.44% | Push |
| Turnover Margin | +0.8 | +0.1 | Los Angeles |
The efficiency grid reinforces the same conclusion: Los Angeles wins early downs, extends drives, and creates better scoring opportunities. Atlanta has to work harder for every point, which becomes problematic when facing a team that scores as efficiently as the Rams.
The Bottom Line & Predictions
Prediction
Los Angeles Rams 31, Atlanta Falcons 21
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐⭐ Los Angeles Rams -7 (-110)
- ⭐ Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 Passing TDs
Game Flow Projection: Los Angeles should separate gradually rather than explosively, using sustained drives and field position to build a working margin. Atlanta may have stretches of success, but matching efficiency over four quarters remains the challenge. At -7, the Rams don’t need perfection — just consistency.
