Is the Bucks +5.0 the best bet of the night? We look at why the Bulls’ balanced attack might be inflated coming off a narrow win against a struggling Philly squad.
The Setup: Milwaukee at Chicago
The Bulls are laying 5 points at home against a Bucks team that’s limping through the season at 12-19, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Milwaukee is on the road where they’re 4-11, Chicago just rattled off five straight wins to get back to .500, and most importantly — Giannis Antetokounmpo remains out with that calf injury. Let me walk you through why this line exists, because once you dig into the matchup data and what these teams actually do possession-by-possession, this spread starts to feel like it’s accounting for narrative more than efficiency.
Here’s the thing — the Bucks are bad this season, no question. They’re 11th in the East, they’ve been a disaster on the road, and without Giannis they’re missing their 28.9 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 6.1 assists per game. But Kevin Porter Jr. has stepped up with 20.0 PPG and 7.3 APG, and Ryan Rollins is contributing 17.1 PPG in expanded minutes. The Bulls are the better team right now at 15-15, riding momentum with Coby White (20.8 PPG) and Josh Giddey (19.8 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 9.2 APG) leading a balanced attack. The question isn’t who’s better — it’s whether that gap is worth five points at the United Center.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 27, 2025, 8:00 ET
Venue: United Center
Spread: Chicago Bulls -5.0 (-110) | Milwaukee Bucks +5.0 (-110)
Total: Over/Under 233.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Bulls -196 | Bucks +159
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on Bulls -5 for three clear reasons: Milwaukee’s road struggles, Giannis being out, and Chicago’s current five-game winning streak. The Bucks are 4-11 away from home, which is legitimately ugly. They just got blown out in Memphis 125-104, and that loss showed exactly what happens when this team faces a competent opponent without their superstar — they got dominated on both ends. The Bulls, meanwhile, just knocked off Philadelphia 109-102 behind Jalen Smith’s late-game heroics, matching their season-high win streak.
But here’s what the line might be overvaluing: recency and roster headlines. Yes, the Bucks lost by 21 in Memphis, but Jaren Jackson Jr. went for 24 points with five blocks, and Ja Morant returned to drop 17 and 10. That’s an elite defensive anchor against a Bucks team missing its best player. The Bulls beat Philly, but that Sixers team is a mess right now, and Chicago only pulled away with a 10-0 run in the final minutes. The five-point spread is pricing in momentum and matchup on paper, but it’s not fully accounting for how these rosters actually match up possession-to-possession.
I keep coming back to this: the Bucks are still getting offensive production. Porter Jr. and Rollins are combining for over 37 PPG, and Milwaukee has enough guard play to keep games competitive even without Giannis. The Bulls are the better team, but five points at home requires them to win by two possessions consistently, and I’m not sure their efficiency advantage is that pronounced.
Milwaukee Bucks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Bucks are a flawed team, but they’re not devoid of talent. Kevin Porter Jr. has been a revelation, averaging 20.0 PPG with 7.3 APG, giving Milwaukee legitimate playmaking and scoring from the guard spot. Ryan Rollins adds another 17.1 PPG with 5.8 APG, meaning this backcourt can create offense even without Giannis bulldozing to the rim. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game stays competitive when Milwaukee inevitably faces defensive pressure.
The problem is everything else. At 12-19, the Bucks are 11th in the Eastern Conference for a reason. Their 4-11 road record shows they can’t close games away from home, and their recent 21-point loss in Memphis exposed their defensive limitations. Without Giannis, they don’t have a rim protector or a guy who can consistently get to the line and control pace. Gary Trent Jr. is also out with a calf injury, taking away another perimeter scoring option.
But here’s what matters for this matchup: Milwaukee can score enough to keep this game within striking distance. They’re not going to blow Chicago out, but Porter Jr. and Rollins have shown they can run pick-and-roll, create for others, and knock down shots when the defense collapses. The Bucks won’t win this game straight-up, but they have the guard play to stay within a possession or two.
Chicago Bulls Breakdown: The Other Side
The Bulls are rolling right now, and their offensive balance is the reason why. Coby White is averaging 20.8 PPG with 5.1 APG, giving Chicago a legitimate scoring threat who can create his own shot. Josh Giddey is putting up an absurd 19.8 PPG, 9.2 RPG, and 9.2 APG — that’s nearly a triple-double every night, and his playmaking opens up everything for this offense. Nikola Vucevic adds 15.8 PPG and 9.1 RPG, providing a steady interior presence who can stretch the floor and control the glass.
At 15-15, the Bulls have clawed back to .500, and their 8-6 home record shows they protect the United Center reasonably well. Their five-game winning streak includes wins over competitive teams, and their recent victory over Philadelphia showed they can execute down the stretch. The main risk here is whether this hot streak is sustainable or whether they’re overvalued coming off a stretch of good fortune.
Chicago’s depth is solid, but they’re not an elite defensive team. They beat the Sixers by seven, but that game was tied late before a 10-0 run sealed it. They’re capable of putting up points in bunches, but they can also get into shootouts, which keeps games closer than the final score suggests. Against a Bucks team that can score with Porter Jr. and Rollins, the Bulls will need to maintain defensive intensity for 48 minutes to cover five points.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether the Bulls can impose their will defensively and turn this into a blowout, or whether the Bucks’ guard play keeps them competitive enough to cover. Once you dig into the matchup data, Chicago has clear advantages: they’re at home, they’re healthier, they’re playing better basketball, and they have the better overall roster. But five points is a meaningful margin, especially when Milwaukee has two guards who can create offense and keep possessions alive.
The pace of this game will matter. The Bulls want to push tempo with Giddey orchestrating the break and White attacking in transition. The Bucks, without Giannis, will struggle to control the glass and get back defensively. If Chicago can force turnovers and convert them into easy buckets, this game could get away from Milwaukee quickly. But if the Bucks can settle into halfcourt offense and let Porter Jr. run pick-and-roll, they’ll keep this game within single digits.
When you do the math over 95-100 possessions, the Bulls should win this game. They’re better on both ends, they’re at home, and they’re riding momentum. But covering five points requires them to win by two clear possessions, and I’m not convinced their efficiency advantage is that pronounced. The Bucks are bad, but they’re not rolling over — they have enough guard play to make this a competitive game deep into the fourth quarter.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Milwaukee Bucks +5.0 (-110) | 1.5 Units
I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there. The Bulls are the better team, and they should win this game straight-up. But five points is asking Chicago to dominate a Bucks team that has legitimate guard play and can score enough to stay within striking distance. Porter Jr. and Rollins aren’t Giannis, but they’re capable of running offense and keeping Milwaukee competitive, especially against a Bulls defense that’s solid but not elite.
The main risk here is blowout potential. If the Bulls come out hot and build a double-digit lead early, the Bucks don’t have the firepower to claw back without Giannis. But I keep coming back to Milwaukee’s ability to score — they’re averaging enough production from their backcourt to keep this game within a possession or two. Chicago wins, but the Bucks cover.
Take Milwaukee +5.0 and trust that this game stays competitive into the fourth quarter. The Bulls are good, but they’re not five-points-at-home-against-a-team-with-NBA-level-guards good. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests.
