Is taking the points with New Orleans the best bet on the board? We look at why the Suns’ 7-8 road record and missing depth create a perfect situational trap.
The Setup: Suns at Pelicans
The Suns are laying 5.5 points on the road in New Orleans, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Phoenix just beat this same Pelicans squad 115-108 two nights ago at this exact venue, with Devin Booker dropping 30 points and closing the door in the fourth quarter. Now they’re back in the Smoothie King Center for the second game of a two-game series, and the market is asking: can the Suns do it again, and by how much?
Here’s the thing — when you dig into what actually happened Friday night and how these teams match up over a full game, this line starts to feel like it’s accounting for recency bias more than sustainable efficiency gaps. The Pelicans are 8-24 for a reason, sitting 14th in the Western Conference, but they hung with Phoenix for most of that game and only fell apart late. The Suns are 17-13 and playing better basketball, but they’re also 7-8 on the road compared to 10-5 at home. That road/home split matters when you’re asking them to win by six in a building where New Orleans has actually been more competitive than their overall record suggests.
Let me walk you through why this line exists and where I think the value actually sits.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 27, 2025, 7:00 ET
Venue: Smoothie King Center
Spread: Suns -5.5 (-110) | Pelicans +5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Suns -227 | Pelicans +181
Total: 237.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on Phoenix -5.5 because the Suns just won this exact matchup by seven points, and they did it with Booker taking over late. The oddsmakers are giving Phoenix credit for being the better team with better depth, better execution, and a clear closer in Booker, who’s averaging 25.6 points, 6.6 assists, and 4.3 rebounds this season. That’s a legitimate edge.
But once you dig into the matchup data, the seven-point final margin from Friday doesn’t tell the full story. The Pelicans led 100-97 with under five minutes left before Booker went off for 12 fourth-quarter points. That’s not dominance — that’s a possession game that tilted late. New Orleans had Zion Williamson doing damage inside, and they were competitive for 43 minutes. The Suns pulled away because they had the best player on the floor when it mattered, not because they controlled the game wire-to-wire.
The Suns are also dealing with Grayson Allen being out due to a knee injury. Allen’s been averaging 16.3 points and 4.1 assists this season, and while Phoenix has enough firepower with Booker and Dillon Brooks (21.5 PPG), losing a third scoring option matters when you’re trying to cover nearly six points on the road. Brooks has been excellent, but depth takes a hit when you’re missing a guy who can space the floor and create secondary offense.
The Pelicans are 8-24, but they’re 6-13 at home, which means they’ve been more competitive in this building than their road record (2-11) suggests. They’re not a good team, but they’re not getting blown out at home every night either.
Phoenix Suns Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Suns are built around Booker’s ability to score at all three levels and create for others. His 6.6 assists per game show he’s not just hunting his own shot — he’s running the offense and making the right reads. When the game tightens up, Phoenix knows exactly where the ball is going, and Booker delivered in that exact spot Friday night.
Dillon Brooks has been a revelation this season, averaging 21.5 points and giving Phoenix a legitimate second scorer who can attack closeouts and defend multiple positions. That’s a huge upgrade for a team that needed more offensive balance. The problem is that with Allen out, the Suns are leaning heavily on their top two guys, and that can create variance in how they perform possession-to-possession.
Phoenix’s 7-8 road record isn’t terrible, but it’s not dominant either. They’re a team that plays better at home (10-5), and when you’re asking them to cover 5.5 on the road in a quick turnaround spot against a team they just played, you’re banking on them executing at a higher level than they’ve shown consistently away from home. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts when you factor in the context.
New Orleans Pelicans Breakdown: The Other Side
The Pelicans are a mess overall, but they’ve got enough talent to stay in games, especially at home. Zion Williamson is averaging 21.7 points and 5.9 rebounds, and when he’s attacking the rim, he’s one of the toughest covers in the league. He got to the line late in Friday’s game and kept New Orleans within striking distance until Booker took over.
Trey Murphy III has been solid, averaging 20.5 points and 6.1 rebounds, and Jordan Poole adds 17.2 points as a secondary ball-handler. That’s three guys who can score, and in a game where the Pelicans are getting nearly six points, that’s enough to keep them competitive if they can avoid extended cold stretches.
The issue for New Orleans is consistency. They’re 8-24 because they can’t string together stops or execute in crunch time. But in a game where they just played Phoenix two nights ago, they’ve seen the coverages, they know what’s coming, and they’re at home where they’ve been more competitive. The quick turnaround actually works in their favor — they don’t have time to overthink it, and they’re playing with house money as a big underdog.
Herbert Jones being out hurts their defensive versatility, and Dejounte Murray remains sidelined, but this isn’t a team that’s getting blown out at home by six-plus points every night. They’ve hung around in games, and Friday was proof of that.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap and what it actually means over 96 possessions. The Suns are the better team, no question. But being better doesn’t automatically translate to covering 5.5 on the road in a spot where the Pelicans have seen everything Phoenix does and are playing at home with nothing to lose.
The pace of this game matters. If New Orleans can push tempo and get Zion going downhill early, they can create transition opportunities that limit Phoenix’s ability to set their defense. The Suns are better in the halfcourt, but they’re not so much better that they’re going to dominate this game start to finish. Friday’s game was close for 43 minutes, and the final margin came down to Booker getting hot late.
When you do that math over 96 possessions, you’re asking Phoenix to be six points better than a team that stayed within three points with five minutes left just two nights ago. That’s a big ask, especially when Allen is out and the Suns are leaning on two primary scorers to carry the load.
The main risk here is Booker going nuclear again and the Suns pulling away late like they did Friday. But betting on a repeat performance in the same building 48 hours later feels like you’re chasing the result instead of trusting the process. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking the Pelicans +5.5 for 1.5 units. I’ve accounted for the home court, the quick turnaround, and the fact that Phoenix just won this game — and it still doesn’t get there for me.
The Suns are the better team, but they’re not six points better on the road against a Pelicans squad that stayed competitive for most of Friday’s game. Allen being out limits Phoenix’s depth, and asking Booker and Brooks to carry this team to a cover in a spot where New Orleans has seen all their actions is a tougher ask than the line suggests.
New Orleans isn’t winning this game outright, but they don’t have to. They just need to stay within six, and based on how Friday played out and how this matchup sets up, I think they do exactly that. The Pelicans have enough scoring to hang around, and the Suns have enough road variance to keep this closer than the market expects.
Take the points. Let Phoenix prove they can blow out a team they barely pulled away from two nights ago.
