Steph Curry can win a game by himself, but he can’t cover a spread alone. Toronto has a trio of scorers in Ingram, Barnes, and Barrett who can match the Warriors bucket for bucket. If Golden State can’t find a third option on the road, the Raptors are in a great spot to stay inside the number.
The Setup: Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors
The Warriors are laying 4.5 points in Toronto on Sunday afternoon, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Golden State sits at 16-15 with Stephen Curry averaging 28.4 points per game and Jimmy Butler providing veteran stability at 19.7 points and 4.9 assists. The Raptors are 18-14 but just got torched by Washington for 138 points. You’d think the market is giving Golden State the nod based on star power and recent form.
Here’s the thing — once you dig into the matchup data and account for where this game is being played, that 4.5-point cushion starts to feel stretched. The Warriors are 6-11 on the road this season compared to 10-4 at home. That’s not just a home/road split — that’s a fundamental identity problem away from Chase Center. Meanwhile, Toronto sits at 8-7 at Scotiabank Arena, and they’ve got Brandon Ingram averaging 21.9 points alongside Scottie Barnes’ all-around game at 19.2 points and 7.9 rebounds.
The thesis here is simple: Golden State’s road vulnerability is real, and Toronto’s home environment with their core trio healthy enough to compete makes this spread wider than the actual talent and efficiency gap between these teams. Let me walk you through why this line exists and where the value sits.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 28, 2025, 3:30 ET
Venue: Scotiabank Arena
Golden State Warriors: 16-15 (8th in Conference)
Toronto Raptors: 18-14 (5th in Conference)
Current Spread: Warriors -4.5 (-115) / Raptors +4.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Warriors -185 / Raptors +160
Total: 224.0 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market is pricing Golden State as the better team based on their ceiling with Curry and Butler, and that’s fair. When you’ve got a two-time MVP putting up 28.4 points per game with the ability to explode for 40 on any given night, you earn respect in the betting markets. Butler’s addition has given them a secondary creator who can control pace and get to his spots, averaging nearly 5 assists per game.
But the 4.5-point spread also reflects some skepticism about the Warriors’ consistency, particularly on the road. That 6-11 road record isn’t a fluke — it’s a pattern. Golden State has struggled to maintain their offensive efficiency and defensive discipline away from home, and that matters when you’re asking them to win by 5+ in a hostile environment against a team that’s actually above .500.
Toronto’s 18-14 record earns them respect too. They’re fifth in the Eastern Conference with a balanced attack led by Ingram’s 21.9 points, Barrett’s 19.4 points when healthy, and Barnes doing everything at 19.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 5.1 assists. The line acknowledges Toronto can compete but assumes Golden State’s star power tilts the margin. I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there for a comfortable Warriors cover.
Golden State Warriors Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Warriors’ offense runs through Curry, and when he’s on, they can score with anyone. His 28.4 points per game combined with Butler’s 19.7 gives them a legitimate two-headed scoring threat. Brandin Podziemski has emerged as a solid tertiary option at 12.4 points and 4.6 rebounds, though he’s listed as probable with an abdomen issue. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts if Podziemski can’t provide his usual floor spacing and energy.
The problem is consistency on the road. That 6-11 away record tells you everything about their inability to maintain defensive intensity and offensive rhythm in hostile environments. They’re missing De’Anthony Melton, who’s been ruled out with a knee injury, which removes another rotation piece and puts more pressure on their core to play heavy minutes.
Golden State needs to control pace and limit Toronto’s transition opportunities. When they get into half-court sets where Curry can work off screens and Butler can operate in the mid-range, they’re dangerous. But if Toronto pushes tempo and forces them into scramble situations defensively, that’s where the Warriors’ road struggles become exploitable.
Toronto Raptors Breakdown: The Other Side
Toronto’s strength is their balance and depth. Ingram at 21.9 points gives them a smooth scorer who can create his own shot. Barnes at 19.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 5.1 assists is their Swiss Army knife — he impacts every phase of the game. Even with RJ Barrett listed as questionable with a knee issue, they’ve got enough firepower to stay competitive.
The concern is their recent defensive performance. Getting lit up for 138 by Washington is alarming, no matter the context. Jakob Poeltl is out with a back injury, which removes their primary rim protector and changes their defensive identity in the paint. That matters against a Warriors team that can get hot from three but also attack the basket with Butler’s drives.
But here’s the thing — Toronto at home has shown they can compete. Their 8-7 home record isn’t elite, but it’s respectable, and Scotiabank Arena provides enough energy to keep them engaged. With Ingram and Barnes leading the charge, they have the shot creation and playmaking to keep this game within striking distance throughout.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This matchup comes down to whether Golden State can impose their will on the road or if Toronto’s home environment and balanced attack can keep this competitive into the final minutes. I keep coming back to the efficiency gap — or lack thereof. The Warriors are the better team on paper, but not by the margin this spread suggests, especially in this context.
Pace will be crucial. If Toronto can push tempo and get out in transition before Golden State’s defense is set, they create easier scoring opportunities and reduce the impact of Curry’s half-court brilliance. Barnes as the primary playmaker at 5.1 assists can facilitate that style, and Ingram can punish in the open floor.
Defensively, Toronto needs to make someone other than Curry and Butler beat them. Podziemski is capable, but if he’s compromised by his abdomen issue, that’s one less shooter the Raptors have to worry about. Without Melton, the Warriors’ bench depth is thinner, which means their stars will need to play heavy minutes in an afternoon game on the road — not an ideal recipe for blowout potential.
The main risk here is Curry going nuclear. If he catches fire and drops 35+ with six threes, all the matchup analysis goes out the window. But even in that scenario, Toronto has enough offensive firepower to keep pace and stay within the number. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests because both teams can score, and neither defense is elite enough to shut down the opposition completely.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Toronto Raptors +4.5 (-105) | 2 Units
I’m backing the Raptors to cover at home. Golden State’s 6-11 road record is too significant to ignore, and Toronto’s balanced attack with Ingram, Barnes, and potentially Barrett gives them enough scoring punch to stay within a possession or two throughout this game. The 4.5-point spread assumes Golden State can separate in crunch time, but I don’t see that happening consistently given their road struggles and Toronto’s ability to score in bunches.
Poeltl being out hurts Toronto’s rim protection, but it also means they might play smaller and faster, which could actually benefit their offensive tempo. The Warriors will need Curry to be brilliant and Butler to be efficient, and even then, I see this game coming down to a final possession or two.
The main risk is exactly what I mentioned — Curry eruption mode. If he hits eight threes and drops 40, the Warriors could pull away late. But I’m betting on Toronto’s home court, their offensive balance, and Golden State’s proven inability to consistently cover on the road. Give me the Raptors plus the points in what should be a competitive Sunday afternoon game at Scotiabank Arena.
