Can Tyrese Maxey keep the Sixers competitive in the wake of Joel Embiid’s absence? Bryan Bash explores the matchup data and provides a high-confidence ATS pick for Sunday’s clash in Oklahoma City.
The Setup: 76ers at Thunder
The Thunder are laying 15.5 points at home against a Sixers team that’s limping into Paycom Center on Sunday afternoon, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Oklahoma City sits at 26-5 overall and a ridiculous 14-1 at home. Philadelphia comes in at 16-13, just lost to Chicago in their last outing, and will be without Kelly Oubre Jr., who’s been their third-leading scorer at 16.8 points per game. The Thunder are the defending NBA champs, they’re rolling, and they just beat San Antonio despite losing that one Thursday. The market sees a mismatch, and I get why that line exists.
Here’s the thing — once you dig into the matchup data and what Philadelphia actually does when healthy, that 15.5-point margin starts to feel stretched. Joel Embiid is averaging 21.8 points, and Tyrese Maxey has been absolutely electric at 30.8 points and 7.0 assists per game. Paul George is probable despite knee injury management. This isn’t a skeleton crew rolling into Oklahoma City. This is a team with legitimate offensive weapons facing a spread that assumes they’ll get blown out by two possessions or more. I’m not buying it.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 28, 2025, 3:30 ET
Venue: Paycom Center
Spread: Thunder -15.5 (-110) / 76ers +15.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Thunder -1111 / 76ers +643
Total: 227.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
Let me walk you through why this line exists, because it’s not just about Oklahoma City being great — it’s about Philadelphia’s recent struggles and the perception that they can’t hang with elite teams on the road. The Thunder’s 26-5 record and that 14-1 home mark are doing heavy lifting here. The market sees Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaging 32.1 points per game, Jalen Williams chipping in 17.6, and a defense that’s been suffocating all season. Add in the fact that the Sixers just lost to Chicago and are dealing with the Oubre injury, and you’ve got a recipe for a double-digit spread.
But here’s where I start to push back. Philadelphia’s 7-5 road record isn’t terrible, especially when you consider they’re still figuring out rotations with Embiid’s workload management. The Sixers rank sixth in the Eastern Conference, which means they’re not some bottom-feeder getting run off the floor every night. The moneyline at -1111 for Oklahoma City tells you the market expects a Thunder win, but laying 15.5 points means you need a blowout, not just a comfortable victory. That’s a different conversation entirely.
The total sits at 227.5, which suggests the oddsmakers expect a moderately paced game with both teams getting into the 110-120 range. That makes sense given Oklahoma City’s efficiency and Philadelphia’s ability to score when Maxey and Embiid are clicking. But the spread? That’s banking on the Thunder pulling away late and covering by three possessions. I’m not convinced that happens, even with home court.
76ers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Philadelphia’s offense runs through Tyrese Maxey, and that’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts. Maxey’s 30.8 points per game lead the team, and his 7.0 assists mean he’s not just scoring but creating for others. Joel Embiid at 21.8 points isn’t the dominant force we’ve seen in past seasons, but he’s still a matchup problem for most centers in the league. Paul George being probable gives them another scoring option who can take pressure off Maxey in the halfcourt.
The concern is depth. Without Oubre’s 16.8 points and 5.1 rebounds, the Sixers lose a versatile wing who can defend multiple positions and provide secondary scoring. Trendon Watford is also out, which thins their bench even further. That means heavier minutes for the starters, and against a team as deep as Oklahoma City, that could become a problem in the fourth quarter.
Philadelphia’s 16-13 record reflects a team that’s competitive but inconsistent. Their 9-8 home record and 7-5 road split show they can win away from Wells Fargo Center, but they haven’t proven they can hang with elite teams in hostile environments. The loss to Chicago was a gut punch, and coming into Paycom Center off that defeat doesn’t set up well mentally. Still, this roster has enough talent to keep games close, especially if Maxey gets hot and Embiid controls the paint.
Thunder Breakdown: The Other Side
Oklahoma City is exactly what you think they are — elite on both ends, deep, and nearly unbeatable at home. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at 32.1 points per game is an MVP-caliber player who can score from all three levels. Jalen Williams (17.6 points, 5.3 assists) gives them a secondary playmaker who can run the offense when SGA sits. Chet Holmgren at 17.9 points and 7.8 rebounds provides rim protection and floor spacing, which is a nightmare matchup for traditional centers like Embiid.
The Thunder’s 14-1 home record is the headline, but what matters more is how they impose their will on opponents. They defend without fouling, they don’t turn the ball over, and they execute in the halfcourt. That’s why they’re the top seed in the Western Conference at 26-5. The loss to San Antonio on Thursday snapped a winning streak, but it’s worth noting they’ve already beaten the Spurs twice in the past two weeks before that. This is a team that learns from losses and adjusts quickly.
The injury report is clean enough. Ousmane Dieng and Jaylin Williams are out, but neither plays major rotation minutes. Nikola Topic’s absence is season-long and already baked into expectations. This is a healthy Thunder squad playing at home in front of a raucous crowd, and they’ll be motivated to bounce back after that San Antonio loss. The question isn’t whether they win — it’s whether they win by 16 or more.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests, and here’s why. Philadelphia has the offensive firepower to stay within striking distance if Maxey and Embiid play to their averages. Maxey’s 30.8 points per game means he’s capable of going for 35-plus on any given night, and if Paul George is active and contributing, the Sixers can put up points in bunches. The total at 227.5 assumes both teams score in the 110s, which means Philadelphia isn’t getting shut down — they’re just expected to lose by a lot.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap. Oklahoma City is elite defensively, but Philadelphia isn’t a team that collapses under pressure. Their 16-13 record includes wins against quality opponents, and their 7-5 road mark shows they can compete away from home. The Thunder’s 14-1 home record is dominant, but one of those losses came against a team that figured out how to slow them down. If Philadelphia can control the pace, limit transition opportunities, and force Oklahoma City into halfcourt sets, they can keep this game closer than 15.5 points.
The main risk here is depth. Philadelphia’s bench is thin without Oubre and Watford, and if the starters get into foul trouble or fatigue sets in during the fourth quarter, the Thunder can pull away. Oklahoma City’s ability to rotate fresh bodies and maintain defensive intensity over 48 minutes is a significant advantage. But for the Sixers to cover, they don’t need to win — they just need to stay within two possessions, and that’s entirely possible if their stars show up.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Philadelphia +15.5 (-110) for 2 units. Here’s why: the Thunder are the better team, and they’ll probably win this game. But 15.5 points is asking them to blow out a Sixers squad that has Tyrese Maxey averaging 30.8 points, Joel Embiid in the middle, and Paul George likely available. I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there. Oklahoma City is 14-1 at Paycom Center, but covering double-digit spreads consistently is a different beast. Philadelphia’s 7-5 road record shows they can compete, and their offensive talent keeps them in games even when they’re outmatched.
The main risk here is the bench. If Philadelphia’s starters can’t stay on the floor or the Thunder’s depth overwhelms them in the second half, this could get ugly. But I’m betting on Maxey and Embiid to keep this competitive into the fourth quarter, and at that point, 15.5 points is too many. Oklahoma City wins, but Philadelphia covers. That’s the play.
The Pick: 76ers +15.5 (-110) | 2 Units
