Can Liberty’s elite shooting efficiency overcome FIU’s high-pressure defense? Bryan Bash breaks down the turnover battle and provides his top ATS pick for Sunday’s Conference USA opener in Miami.
The Setup: Liberty at Florida International
Liberty’s laying 4.5 points on the road at Florida International, and honestly, that number feels light when you dig into what’s really happening here. The Flames are rolling into Miami with one of the most efficient offenses in college basketball – we’re talking about a team ranked 1st nationally in effective field goal percentage at 65.6% according to collegebasketballdata.com. Meanwhile, FIU wants to run you off the floor at the 11th-fastest pace in the country, and here’s the thing – that style might actually play right into Liberty’s hands despite the road environment.
This is a Conference USA matchup that sets up as a fascinating clash of efficiency versus chaos. Liberty’s adjusted net efficiency sits at +7.5, ranking 97th nationally, while FIU checks in at -2.6 and 201st overall. That’s nearly a 10-point gap in adjusted efficiency, and when you’re getting a team laying under a touchdown on the road with that kind of statistical edge, my ears perk up immediately.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Liberty @ Florida International
Date: December 28, 2025
Time: 2:00 PM ET
Venue: Ocean Bank Convocation Center, Miami, FL
Conference: CUSA
Point Spread: Liberty -4.5
Total: 146.5-147
Moneyline: Liberty -185 | FIU +154-160
Why This Number Makes Sense
Let me walk you through the efficiency story here, because it’s the foundation of everything. Liberty’s adjusted offensive efficiency ranks 40th nationally at 117.1, while their adjusted defensive efficiency sits 218th at 109.6. FIU checks in at 211th offensively (105.7) and 188th defensively (108.3). That 11.4-point gap in adjusted offensive efficiency is massive – that’s not just a slight edge, it’s the difference between a legitimately elite offense and a below-average one.
Here’s where it gets interesting: FIU plays at the 11th-fastest pace in America at 75.3 possessions per game, while Liberty prefers a much more controlled 65.4 pace (284th nationally). The tempo will likely settle somewhere in the middle – let’s call it 70 possessions. Do that math over 70 possessions with Liberty’s offensive advantage, and you’re looking at roughly an 8-point edge just from the efficiency gap alone. Add in home court for FIU (worth maybe 2-3 points), and suddenly this 4.5-point spread starts to make perfect sense.
The raw offensive numbers tell an even more compelling story. Liberty’s shooting 54.7% from the field (2nd nationally) and 43.1% from three (4th). That effective field goal percentage of 65.6% ranking first in the country isn’t a typo – it’s sustainable excellence. They’re taking care of the basketball with just 8.5 turnovers per game (3rd nationally), which means they’re not giving FIU’s aggressive defense (11.0 steals per game, 10th nationally) the extra possessions they crave.
Liberty’s Situation
The Flames come in at 6-2 with one of the most balanced offensive attacks you’ll find. Brett Decker Jr. leads the way at 19.6 points per game, ranking 42nd nationally, but the real story is the depth. Four guys averaging double figures, and then there’s Zach Cleveland – a forward putting up 10.2 points, 9.0 rebounds (44th nationally), and an absurd 8.4 assists per game (3rd in the country). That’s your point-forward running the show, and he’s the reason Liberty’s offense flows so smoothly despite the slower pace.
The shooting efficiency isn’t a fluke. With a 65.5% free throw percentage ranking 325th, you might worry about late-game situations, but Liberty’s true shooting percentage of 66.5% (3rd nationally) shows they’re so good from the field that free throws almost don’t matter. They’re getting quality looks and knocking them down at elite rates.
The concern? Rebounding. Liberty ranks 334th in rebounds per game at 32.0 and 364th in offensive rebounding percentage at just 20.3%. Against FIU’s 35.4% offensive rebounding rate (45th nationally), that’s a legitimate weakness. The Panthers will get second-chance opportunities, and those extra possessions could be the difference in a close game.
Florida International’s Situation
FIU’s 5-3 start looks solid on paper, but the schedule context matters. That 121-70 demolition of Trinity Baptist and wins over Long Island and Jacksonville don’t tell us much. The 98-81 loss to Miami showed what happens when they face a quality opponent – they got run off the floor despite the breakneck pace.
Corey Stephenson (17.5 PPG, 108th nationally) is the engine, and he’s complemented nicely by Julian Mackey’s 13.4 points per game. The Panthers shoot 37.3% from three (50th nationally), so they’ve got the firepower to keep pace in a shootout. Their defensive pressure generates 11.0 steals per game and 5.0 blocks (32nd nationally), creating 149 points off turnovers already this season.
But here’s the thing – that aggressive style leads to 11.9 turnovers per game themselves, and their overall offensive rating of 111.9 ranks just 170th nationally. They’re not efficient enough to consistently win shootouts against elite offensive teams. The home crowd at Ocean Bank Convocation Center will help, but FIU’s defensive rating of 101.8 (119th) suggests they’re going to have real problems slowing down Liberty’s precision attack.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on one question: Can FIU’s chaos disrupt Liberty’s efficiency? I keep coming back to those turnover numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Liberty’s 8.5 turnovers per game ranks 3rd nationally – they simply don’t give the ball away. FIU forces 11.0 steals per game, but they’re doing that against teams averaging far more turnovers than Liberty.
The three-point battle favors Liberty significantly. They’re shooting 43.1% from deep (4th) while FIU’s at 37.3% (50th). Both teams will launch from distance, and in a game projected around 147 total points, that 5.8% efficiency gap translates to real points. If we’re looking at 25 combined three-point attempts per team, Liberty’s advantage is worth roughly 4-5 points right there.
The rebounding edge for FIU is real – that 35.4% offensive rebounding rate against Liberty’s 20.3% defensive rate creates extra possessions. But here’s the math: even if FIU gets 8-10 extra possessions from offensive rebounds, they’re converting at a much lower efficiency than Liberty. Liberty needs fewer possessions to score the same points because they’re converting at elite rates.
The pace will be fascinating. FIU wants 75+ possessions; Liberty prefers 65. The home team typically dictates tempo, but Liberty’s discipline in limiting turnovers means they’ll control possessions longer. I’m projecting around 70-72 possessions, which favors Liberty’s style more than FIU’s.
My Play
I’m backing Liberty -4.5 for 2 units, and I’m comfortable with it. The adjusted efficiency gap of nearly 10 points is too massive to ignore, even on the road. Liberty’s shooting numbers aren’t smoke and mirrors – they’re sustainable excellence backed by shot selection and player quality. FIU’s going to get their runs with the defensive pressure and home crowd, but Liberty’s composure with the basketball (3rd in turnover ratio) neutralizes the Panthers’ biggest weapon.
The main risk here is if FIU gets nuclear from three-point range and turns this into a track meet above 75 possessions. The rebounding disparity could also keep FIU close if they’re converting second chances. I’ve considered all of that, and the efficiency gap is still too massive to ignore. Liberty’s 117.1 adjusted offensive efficiency against FIU’s 108.3 adjusted defensive efficiency sets up a mismatch.
I’m projecting Liberty 78, FIU 72. The Flames cover the 4.5, and we cash a road ticket with one of the country’s most efficient offenses doing what they do best – taking care of the ball and knocking down shots at elite rates. This number should be closer to 6 or 7, and we’re getting value at 4.5.
