RBD breaks down a wild week of betting results, system performance, and predictions across football and the NBA.
NFL Review
I didn’t use any plays for my articles because I had no systems working for me. But I bet two prop bets in the Forum. With Mahomes out I figured Andy Reid would lean on the run game, so I used Pacheco on receiving yards and rushing yards. And I was right, Reid did lean to the run game – with Kareem Hunt.
Going into the second half I only needed six more rushing yards from Pacheco to break even at worse case. Piece of cake, right?
Wrong. He only had ONE rushing attempt as Hunt dominated playing time.
College Football Review
The Bowls saved my season.
I ended the regular season at about even.
Normally I’d call this a success based on my first goal – Do No Harm to My Bankroll, DON’T LOSE MONEY!
But college football is where I make most of my money from sports betting. I put a lot of time into it. I have a history of success that allows me to bet a sizable unit.
I expect to win.
Breaking even is not acceptable.
So I put even MORE time into handicapping the final games of the college football season.
If you haven’t already done so, please check out the final results of that extra work, my article dated December 16th, on Jacksonville State, and the new model I came up with for finding profitable Dogs in the Bowls.
And then check out my Bowl post in the PredictEm forum, for the Dogs that I bought from that new system.
I closed out the week with a come from behind SU win with the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors as +1′ Dogs, and a Push with New Mexico +3, in a game where I paid extra juice instead of taking the Lobos at +2′.
I’m at 6-1 in the Bowls, and as I noted in the forum on the day before the game was played, Missouri State was a mistake.
I should be 6-0.
I have two plays open:
Louisiana Tech and Navy.
I might buy something else, I might not.
As it is, worst case I’ll finish at 6-3, 67%.
And with two strong plays left I have a good chance at finishing it 8-1 or 7-2.
Either way, I’ll hit my third goal – The Holy Grail, 67%.
NBA Review
Submitted my first NBA article on Friday, December, 26, the Bos/Indy game Over.
The total was 221.
They combined for 262.
After three games qualified yesterday (shared in the PredictEm Forum) that spot is now 14-6.
One game qualifies today and I’m on it:
LAC Ov 221′.
In addition to the strong stats I had on Bos/Indy (12-5, 70% from one of my models for picking totals) I was also confident of getting a win because of another aspect I mentioned in the article – flow.
As the saying goes, “When you’re hot, you’re hot. When you’re not, you’re not.”
Yes, it’s a stupid saying. But there’s truth to it.
There is a flow to life, a rhythm.
When you’re doing well, everything seems to go your way. And opposite that, when it rains it pours.
I knew I was in a good “flow.”
From 6:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. there’s a poker promotion based on the 10 card.
A ten high straight pays $175.
A ten high flush pays $75.
A full house with tens on top pays $650.
Four 10’s pays $2,000
And from 8:00 AM to 10:00 AM any bonus hand pays double.
I get dealt pocket 10’s.
First card on the flop – a ten.
Second card – a ten.
I didn’t even need the third card.
And that’s where the picture on my first NBA article came from.
Four dimes from poker.
6-1 on Bowls.
A winner with my first NBA article.
Yeah, I’m in the flow.
And looking to stay there this week to close out the year on a high note.
GO NAVY!
