The Kings are missing 40% of their scoring output with Domantas Sabonis and Zach LaVine sidelined. Bryan Bash breaks down why the Celtics are the ultimate New Year’s Day ATS pick as they look to capitalize on a Sacramento roster in full-blown crisis mode.
The Setup: Celtics at Kings
The Celtics are laying 9.5 points on the road at Golden 1 Center on New Year’s Day, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Boston sits at 20-12 and third in the Eastern Conference. Sacramento is 8-25, dead last in the West at 14th, and just got throttled by 41 points in LA. But here’s the thing — once you factor in the injury situation and how this matchup actually plays out over 96 possessions, this line starts to look like a gift rather than a trap.
Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I’m comfortable laying the points with a Celtics team that’s been road-tested all season. Boston is 10-7 away from home, which tells you they can win in hostile environments. Sacramento is 5-10 at home, and that’s with a relatively healthy roster for most of those games. Now they’re missing both Zach LaVine and Domantas Sabonis — two of their three leading scorers. That’s not just a depth issue. That’s a complete reconfiguration of how this Kings offense generates points and controls pace.
The Celtics are coming off a quality road win in Utah where Derrick White dropped 27 points with seven blocks in a complete two-way performance. The Kings just lost by 41 to the Clippers and are now facing a Boston team that’s better, deeper, and more disciplined. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests — except it widens it, because Sacramento simply doesn’t have the horses to stay within single digits against a motivated Celtics squad.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 1, 2026, 10:00 ET
Venue: Golden 1 Center
Current Spread: Celtics -9.5 (-110) | Kings +9.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Celtics -417 | Kings +313
Total: Over/Under 227.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market set this line at -9.5 for a reason: talent disparity, injury context, and situational dynamics. Boston is the better team by every measurable standard, but they’re on the road on New Year’s Day in a late tip. That’s worth about 2-3 points of line value right there. The Kings are at home, which typically provides some cushion. But when you lose your two best interior players — Sabonis and his 17.2 points and 12.3 rebounds per game — you lose the engine that makes this offense functional.
Here’s the thing — Sacramento’s offense runs through Sabonis. He’s the hub for their half-court sets, the screener in their pick-and-roll actions, and the rebounder who generates second-chance opportunities. Without him, and without LaVine’s 20.2 points per game, the Kings are left with DeMar DeRozan as their primary creator. DeRozan is averaging 18.5 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 3.7 assists, but he’s not a volume shooter, and he’s not going to single-handedly carry an offense against a Celtics defense that can load up and make life miserable.
The total is set at 227.5, which suggests the market expects a relatively high-scoring game. That makes sense when you consider Boston’s offensive firepower. Jaylen Brown is averaging 29.5 points per game, and the Celtics have multiple creators in Derrick White (18.4 PPG) and Payton Pritchard (16.9 PPG). But Sacramento’s ability to keep pace is severely compromised. When you do the math over 96 possessions, the Kings just don’t have the offensive efficiency to stay close unless Boston goes cold from three or turns the ball over at an unsustainable rate.
Celtics Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Boston is 20-12 and playing their best basketball when they lean into their depth and versatility. Brown is the primary engine, averaging 29.5 points and 6.3 rebounds while shooting efficiently from all three levels. White just put up a career performance in Utah with 27 points and seven blocks, showing he can be a secondary scorer and a defensive disruptor. Pritchard has been a revelation off the bench, averaging 16.9 points and providing instant offense when the starters need a breather.
The Celtics are without Jayson Tatum for the season, which is a massive loss, but they’ve adjusted by spreading the usage and leaning into their defensive identity. White, Brown, and Pritchard can all handle the ball and create shots, which means Boston doesn’t rely on a single player to generate offense. That’s critical in a game like this where the Kings will likely try to slow the pace and muck things up defensively.
Boston’s road record of 10-7 tells you they’re comfortable playing away from TD Garden. They’ve won games in tough environments, and they don’t fold when the crowd gets loud. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this team tilts in late-game situations. The Celtics have the experience, the depth, and the defensive versatility to win this game by double digits if they execute their game plan.
Kings Breakdown: The Other Side
Sacramento is 8-25 and in full-blown crisis mode. They’re 5-10 at home, which means Golden 1 Center hasn’t been a fortress. They’re 3-15 on the road, which tells you this team struggles to compete away from home. But even at home, they’re undermanned and overmatched against a team like Boston.
DeRozan is the leading scorer still available, but he’s not a high-volume guy. He’s averaging 18.5 points per game, but he’s not going to drop 35 and carry this team to a cover. Without Sabonis, the Kings lose their best rebounder and their most efficient interior scorer. Without LaVine, they lose their most dynamic perimeter threat. That leaves Sacramento with a rotation that’s thin, inexperienced, and lacking the firepower to keep pace with a Celtics team that can score in bunches.
The Kings just lost by 41 to the Clippers, and that wasn’t a fluke. Kawhi Leonard dropped 33, and the Clippers dominated every phase of the game. Sacramento couldn’t defend, couldn’t rebound, and couldn’t generate quality looks in the half-court. Now they’re facing a Celtics team that’s better than the Clippers and more disciplined defensively. I keep coming back to this efficiency gap — Boston can score at will, and Sacramento simply doesn’t have the personnel to stop them or match their output.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the half-court and on the glass. Boston will look to push pace when they can, but they’re disciplined enough to execute in the half-court when Sacramento tries to slow things down. The Celtics have multiple ball-handlers and shot creators, which means they can generate quality looks even against a set defense. The Kings, on the other hand, are missing their two best players and will struggle to create efficient offense without Sabonis setting screens and LaVine attacking off the dribble.
Rebounding is going to be a massive factor. Sabonis averages 12.3 rebounds per game, and without him, the Kings lose their best rebounder by a wide margin. Boston can dominate the glass with their size and athleticism, which will lead to second-chance opportunities and limit Sacramento’s possessions. When you do the math over 96 possessions, the Celtics should have a significant edge in both offensive efficiency and rebounding rate.
Defensively, Boston can load up on DeRozan and force the Kings’ role players to beat them. Without LaVine’s spacing and Sabonis’ interior presence, Sacramento’s offense becomes predictable and easy to defend. The Celtics can switch across multiple positions, which means they can neutralize the Kings’ pick-and-roll actions and force contested jumpers. That’s not a recipe for Sacramento to stay within single digits.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m laying the 9.5 points with the Celtics at -110 for 2 units. This line feels like it’s accounting for Boston’s road spot and the late tip, but it’s not fully pricing in how depleted Sacramento is. The Kings are missing two of their three best players, and they just got blown out by 41 in their last game. The Celtics are 10-7 on the road and have the depth, discipline, and defensive versatility to win this game by double digits.
The main risk here is Boston coming out flat on New Year’s Day or the Kings catching fire from three and keeping it close longer than expected. But even if Sacramento hangs around for a half, the Celtics have the firepower and depth to pull away in the second half. Brown, White, and Pritchard can all get hot, and the Kings simply don’t have the personnel to match that scoring punch.
Once you dig into the matchup data and account for the injuries, this line looks like a gift. I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there. Boston wins this game by 12-15 points, and we cash the ticket with room to spare. Lock in Celtics -9.5 and expect a comfortable cover.
