Arizona vs. SMU Predictions: Will the Wildcats’ Five-Game Streak Hold?

It’s a battle of the elites this Friday as No. 17 Arizona brings the nation’s 4th-best pass defense to San Diego. Loot Levinson breaks down why the Wildcats’ secondary is the key to finding a winning ATS pick against the ACC’s most explosive passing attack.

Arizona Wildcats (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) vs. SMU Mustangs (8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Trust & Will Holiday Bowl

Date/Time: Friday, January 2, 2026 at 8PM EST

Where: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, California

TV: Fox

The Arizona Wildcats and the SMU Mustangs will battle it out at Snapdragon Stadium in the Holiday Bowl on Friday. Both squads last saw the field back in late November. For Arizona, it was a successful end to their season, with their November 28 win over Arizona State, 23-7, marking their fifth straight win and ninth overall. It was a less-successful end to the season for SMU, two-touchdown favorites beaten at Cal, 38-35, ending a nice 3-game win streak. Who will be in a better position to take down the Holiday Bowl on Friday?

How Each Team Looked at the End

The Cal loss notwithstanding, Southern Methodist was looking pretty good. Just before that, they had completely wiped out a pretty good Louisville team. A few weeks before that, they beat a CFP-bound Miami team in overtime. It’s a team that can hit some high notes, while also occasionally sinking to a level that cost them a better season. They can cover the whole spectrum, as evidenced by their poor record against the spread. Some of the same things can be said about an Arizona team that looked run-of-the-mill to begin the season, before rifling off 5 straight wins. They seem to have really found a groove under second-year head coach Brent Brennan. After seeing the program take a hard dip in his first season, it didn’t take long to have Arizona back in thick of things, a team worth watching moving forward.

Can the Arizona Offense Take Over?

This was a big part of their upsurge in the second half of the season for the Wildcats, aided by star QB Noah Fifita, who threw for almost 3000 yards, with 26 touchdowns and just five picks. He is also handy with his feet when need be. Unlike many teams whose offenses get fleeced by various conditions leading up to bowl-season, the Wildcats are intact on offense. Top rusher Ismail Mahdy, leading receiver Kris Hutson, and all their pieces will be in tow, including a deep pass-catching crew.

Potential SMU backers have cause for both hope and pessimism against the Arizona offense. Against Cal, with a chance to go to the conference title game, we saw SMU giving up a lot through the air. And that can happen, but to see their playmaking edge so dulled in that game was disconcerting and now with over a month off, you wonder if they still have the same edge they showed at points this season. The Arizona offensive line can be exploited through pass-protection, but can the SMU “D” show up like they did earlier in the season? Not always the stoutest group, their playmaking ability can help turn a game on its head and they’re going to need that in this one. They are pretty good against the run generally, which could go a long way against Arizona.

Will SMU’s Offense Do Damage?

The SMU offense has some things in common with its opponents, featuring a playmaking QB who utilizes a group that features more depth than it does individual stars with glossy stats. While you can still say a SMU team that made it to the CFP last season is more of a team known for defense, their offense is far from an afterthought, led by a good quarterback in Kevin Jennings, who threw for 3363 yards this season. TJ Harden is a pretty good back, while Jennings benefits from a deep cast of aerial weapons. With guys like Jordan Hudson, Romello Brinson, Yamir Knight, and two good tight ends in Matthew Hibner and RJ Maryland, his options are wide. If looking to call them out, their offense lacks the balance it had last season, with a run game that sometimes doesn’t make much of an impact.

There’s nothing terribly special about the Arizona run-defense. But they’re pretty good, and I’d be a bit worried if depending on this aspect of offense from SMU. It’s just that they might need more than normal on that front because it won’t be easy to crack an Arizona pass-defense that allowed just over 155 yards of passing through the air per game. It’s been since September that an opposing QB has even surpassed 200 yards in a single game against this group, and it’s not like they haven’t played some good teams that could test them along these lines. They have a couple of DBs who we should be seeing on Sundays in the near future. A key aspect of this game is whether the SMU aerial variety can do damage on an Arizona secondary that might be the best one the Mustangs have seen all season.

Lay the Number

Getting this somewhat close to home and finishing the season so strongly puts Arizona in a good position to pounce on what seem to be some favorable matchup aspects in this game. I’m certainly worried about what can be a lethargic Arizona pass-rush against this good SMU offensive line, especially with a guy in Jennings who has become a large presence as a pocket-passer with all those weapons at his avail. And maybe the time off took some of the razor’s edge off of an Arizona pass-defense. Still, I believe in the resolve of Wildcats’ quarterback Noah Fifita, who I think can extract just enough from this offense to maintain the upper hand in San Diego on Friday. I’m taking the Wildcats

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Arizona Wildcats minus 3 points.