The 23-12 New York Knicks head to Little Caesars Arena as slim road favorites against the Eastern Conference-leading Detroit Pistons. Bash breaks down whether the 3-point spread accounts for New York’s road struggles and Detroit’s elite 12-3 home record.
The Setup: Knicks at Pistons
The Knicks are laying 3 points at Little Caesars Arena on Sunday night, and on the surface, this number makes sense. New York sits at 23-12, they’ve got Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns clicking, and they’re coming off a home stand. Detroit checks in at 26-9 and leads the Eastern Conference, but they’re without Jalen Duren and dealing with rotation adjustments. The market sees a road favorite with star power against a home team missing a key piece.
Here’s the thing — once you dig into the matchup data and account for what Detroit does at home, this spread starts to feel stretched. The Pistons are 12-3 at Little Caesars Arena this season, and Cade Cunningham just dropped 27 in a road win at Cleveland without two starters. The Knicks are 7-8 on the road, and that’s not a random split. This is a team that plays significantly better in Madison Square Garden than they do away from it.
Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I think the value sits with the home dog getting three full points in a game that projects tighter than the market suggests.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 5, 2026, 7:00 ET
Location: Little Caesars Arena
Spread: Knicks -3.0 (-110) | Pistons +3.0 (-110)
Total: 234.5 (Over/Under -110)
Moneyline: Knicks -152 | Pistons +123
Why This Line Exists
The market is pricing in three factors here: New York’s overall record superiority, the Knicks’ star power with Brunson averaging 29.3 points per game and Towns putting up 22.0 and 11.8 rebounds, and Detroit’s injury situation with Duren out for at least another week. That’s a legitimate starting center who contributes 17.9 points and 10.6 boards per night — a significant absence in the frontcourt.
But the line also reflects something the market might be undervaluing: Detroit’s home performance and Cade Cunningham’s elevated play. The Pistons just won at Cleveland — the team with the best home record in the league — without Duren and Caris LeVert. Cunningham scored 27, and Daniss Jenkins added 25 off the bench with 21 in the second quarter alone. That’s not just depth — that’s a rotation that’s figured out how to win without their starting center.
The Knicks, meanwhile, just lost at home to Philadelphia 130-119. Tyrese Maxey went for 36, Joel Embiid and VJ Edgecombe each added 26, and New York couldn’t slow down the pace or defend efficiently enough to keep it close. They’re also playing without Josh Hart, who’s been cleared for light court work but won’t be available for this one. Hart’s versatility and rebounding matter, especially on the road where the Knicks are 7-8 this season.
This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests because Detroit has proven they can execute at home, and New York’s road splits tell you they’re not the same team away from MSG.
Knicks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Brunson is the engine, averaging 29.3 points and 6.5 assists, and he’s one of the most efficient pull-up shooters in the league. Towns gives them a legitimate second scoring option at 22.0 per game, and his 11.8 rebounds per game help them control possessions. Mikal Bridges adds 16.2 points and gives them a versatile wing who can defend multiple positions.
But here’s where the Knicks struggle on the road: they don’t control pace the way they do at home, and their defensive efficiency drops when they’re not playing in front of their crowd. The loss to Philadelphia exposed their inability to guard in transition and protect the rim without consistent help defense. Hart’s absence removes a key rebounder and secondary playmaker, which puts more pressure on Brunson to create and Towns to dominate the glass.
The Knicks are 15-4 at home and 7-8 on the road. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this team functions. They’re elite in Madison Square Garden and merely above-average everywhere else. At 23-12 overall, they’re a good team, but they’re not a team that should be laying three points on the road against a conference leader.
Pistons Breakdown: The Other Side
Cunningham is playing at an All-NBA level, averaging 26.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 9.6 assists. He’s the best player on the floor in this game, and that matters in a tight contest. His ability to control tempo, create for others, and score in isolation gives Detroit the kind of offensive flexibility that keeps them in every game.
Without Duren, the Pistons have adjusted by playing smaller and faster. Jenkins has stepped up as a scoring option off the bench, and Tobias Harris provides veteran stability at 13.4 points per game. The Pistons are 12-3 at home, and that home-court advantage is real. They defend better, they execute in half-court sets, and they get to the line more consistently when they’re playing at Little Caesars Arena.
The main risk here is frontcourt depth. Duren’s absence means Detroit will struggle to match Towns on the glass, and if the Knicks can generate second-chance opportunities, that tilts the efficiency battle. But the Pistons have shown they can win without Duren — they just did it in Cleveland — and their ability to spread the floor and play through Cunningham gives them multiple ways to score.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap and how it plays out over 48 minutes. The Knicks want to slow the game down, feed Towns in the post, and let Brunson operate in pick-and-roll. The Pistons want to push pace, get Cunningham in space, and force New York to defend in transition where they’ve been vulnerable.
Detroit’s home splits are significant because they defend at a higher level at Little Caesars Arena. The Knicks’ road splits are significant because they don’t shoot as efficiently or rebound as well away from home. When you factor in Hart’s absence and the fact that Detroit just beat Cleveland without two starters, the gap between these teams narrows considerably.
The total is set at 234.5, which suggests the market expects a moderate-paced game with both teams scoring in the mid-110s. That feels right given the matchup, but the spread at three points assumes the Knicks can execute on the road at a level they haven’t shown consistently this season. I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there for New York.
Cunningham’s playmaking and scoring ability give Detroit the best individual performance edge in this game. The Pistons have proven they can win at home without Duren, and the Knicks have proven they’re significantly worse on the road. That’s not speculation — that’s a 15-4 home record versus a 7-8 road record. When you do that math over a full game, three points is too many to lay with a road favorite that doesn’t defend or rebound as well away from MSG.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Detroit Pistons +3.0 (-110) | 2 Units
I’m taking the Pistons plus the points at home. Detroit is 12-3 at Little Caesars Arena, they just won at Cleveland without two starters, and Cunningham is playing at an elite level. The Knicks are 7-8 on the road, they’re without Hart, and they just gave up 130 at home to Philadelphia. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests, and getting three points with the home team that leads the Eastern Conference is the right side.
The main risk here is Towns dominating the glass without Duren to match him physically. If the Knicks can generate second-chance points and control the offensive boards, they can cover this number. But I trust Detroit’s home execution, Cunningham’s ability to control the game, and the fact that New York hasn’t shown they can consistently win on the road this season.
This is a situational edge backed by season-long data. Take the Pistons plus three and trust the home dog with the better individual player and the proven home-court advantage.
