Our comprehensive betting guide for tonight’s game examines two contenders missing their primary superstars. Bryan Bush delivers his prediction for a matchup where Derrick White and Jamal Murray take center stage in a battle of attrition.
The Setup: Nuggets at Celtics
The Celtics are laying 9.5 points at TD Garden against a Denver squad that just pulled off a gutsy overtime win in Philadelphia without half their rotation. On the surface, this number makes sense — Boston’s at home, they’re 11-5 at TD Garden this season, and they just hung 115 on Chicago while holding them to 33 first-half points. But here’s the thing: this line is asking Boston to cover nearly double digits without Jayson Tatum, who remains out indefinitely. Meanwhile, Denver’s dealing with injury questions around Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, and Tim Hardaway Jr., but they’ve got the best player on the floor in Nikola Jokic, who’s averaging 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 11.0 assists this season.
Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I think the market’s overvaluing Boston’s home court in this specific matchup. The Celtics are 23-12 and sitting second in the East, but they’re being asked to lay nearly 10 without their best player against a 24-12 Nuggets team that’s actually been better on the road (14-7) than at home (10-5) this year. Once you dig into the matchup data and efficiency context, that 9.5-point margin starts to feel stretched.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 7, 2026, 7:00 ET
Venue: TD Garden
Spread: Boston Celtics -9.5 (-110) | Denver Nuggets +9.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Celtics -400 | Nuggets +297
Total: 232.0 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The 9.5-point spread is built on a few assumptions: Boston’s home-court advantage, their recent four-game winning streak, and the uncertainty around Denver’s backcourt with Murray’s ankle issue lingering. The Celtics just dominated Chicago defensively, and Anfernee Simons and Payton Pritchard combined for 48 points in that win. The market sees Boston’s depth — with Jaylen Brown averaging 29.6 points, Derrick White at 18.4, and Pritchard chipping in 16.9 — as enough firepower to compensate for Tatum’s absence against a potentially short-handed Denver team.
But I keep coming back to this efficiency gap, or rather, the lack of one that justifies 9.5 points. Denver’s 24-12 record includes that 14-7 road mark, and they just won in Philadelphia with Bruce Brown scoring 19 and Jalen Pickett dropping 29 in extended minutes. That’s not just depth — that’s a team that knows how to win with different contributors. The Nuggets have Jokic orchestrating everything at an MVP level, and even if Murray sits or plays limited minutes, they’ve shown they can generate efficient offense through their system.
The total sitting at 232.0 suggests the market expects a relatively high-scoring affair, which makes sense given both teams’ offensive capabilities. But that total also implies Boston will need to score in the 120s to cover this spread, and I’m not convinced they get there consistently enough against Denver’s playoff-tested defense, even without some rotation pieces.
Nuggets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Denver comes in at 24-12 with the fourth seed in the West, but that road record — 14-7 — tells you everything about their mental toughness and ability to execute in hostile environments. Jokic is the engine, averaging a near triple-double at 29.6/12.2/11.0, and when he’s on the floor, Denver runs one of the most efficient offenses in basketball. Jamal Murray’s status is the biggest question mark here; he’s listed as day-to-day with an ankle issue after sitting out Monday’s game in Philly. If Murray can’t go, Jalen Pickett proved he can step up with that 29-point performance, and Bruce Brown’s 19 points showed the Nuggets have multiple guys who can score when needed.
Aaron Gordon adds 18.9 points and 5.9 rebounds per game, giving Denver a third legitimate scoring threat. The concern is depth on the wing with Christian Braun and Tim Hardaway Jr. both day-to-day, but Denver just won without them. That’s not a stat — it’s how this team tilts when they’re undermanned. They slow the pace, let Jokic dictate tempo, and execute in the half-court. Against a Boston team missing Tatum, that formula becomes even more viable because the Celtics lose their primary isolation scorer and defensive matchup weapon.
Celtics Breakdown: The Other Side
Boston’s 23-12 record and 11-5 home mark look solid, but context matters. They’re without Jayson Tatum indefinitely, and while reports suggest they’re “cautiously optimistic” about his return later this season, he’s not walking through that door Wednesday night. That puts enormous pressure on Jaylen Brown, who’s matching Jokic’s scoring average at 29.6 points per game but doesn’t have the same playmaking gravity. Brown’s a 1A scorer, not a true floor general, which means Boston needs Derrick White and Payton Pritchard to facilitate and score.
The Celtics just held Chicago to 33 first-half points, which speaks to their defensive discipline, but the Bulls aren’t the Nuggets. Denver runs through Jokic, who can pick apart any defense with his passing and scoring touch. Boston’s depth chart shows Anfernee Simons contributing 27 points in that Chicago win, and Neemias Queta adding a 13-point, 13-rebound double-double, but asking role players to consistently produce against playoff-caliber competition is a different challenge.
Here’s the thing: Boston’s 11-5 at home, but they’re 12-7 on the road, which suggests their home-court advantage isn’t as pronounced as the 9.5-point spread implies. They’re a good team, but without Tatum, they lose the guy who can create his own shot late in the clock and guard Denver’s best wing players. That’s a massive swing in both directions.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests because of how Denver controls pace and exploits mismatches through Jokic. The Celtics want to push tempo and generate transition opportunities, but Denver’s one of the best teams in basketball at getting back and forcing opponents into half-court sets. Once you’re in the half-court against Jokic, you’re dealing with a guy who can score, pass out of double teams, and make every possession count.
Boston’s defensive strategy will likely focus on limiting Jokic’s passing lanes and forcing Denver’s role players to beat them, but that’s exactly what happened in Philadelphia — Bruce Brown and Jalen Pickett stepped up. If Murray plays even at 70-80%, he’s still one of the best playoff performers in the league, and his ability to hit tough shots late in the shot clock gives Denver another dimension Boston has to account for.
On the other side, Denver’s defense will key on Jaylen Brown and force White and Pritchard into tough looks. Without Tatum spacing the floor and commanding double teams, Boston’s offensive efficiency takes a hit. The Celtics averaged 115 points against Chicago, but the Bulls’ defense isn’t in the same class as what Denver brings to the table, especially in a road game where they’ve been excellent this season.
The main risk here is Murray’s health and whether Denver’s wing depth holds up, but even if Braun and Hardaway sit, Denver has shown they can win with different lineups. Boston needs everything to click — Brown needs 30+, Pritchard and White need to be efficient, and their defense needs to contain Jokic — just to cover 9.5 at home. That’s asking a lot against a team that’s 14-7 on the road and has the best player on the floor.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Denver Nuggets +9.5 (-110) | 2 Units
I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there. Boston’s a good team, but they’re not a 9.5-point favorite over a 24-12 Denver squad without Jayson Tatum. Jokic is the best player in this game by a considerable margin, and the Nuggets have proven they can win on the road with different contributors stepping up. Murray’s status is worth monitoring, but even if he sits, Pickett just dropped 29 in Philly and showed he can run the offense.
The Celtics will compete, and Brown will get his points, but asking them to win by double digits without their best player against a playoff-tested Denver team feels like an overreaction to Boston’s recent home success. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests because of pace control and Jokic’s ability to dictate tempo. I’m taking the Nuggets +9.5 and expecting a competitive game that stays within single digits down the stretch. If Denver steals this one outright, I won’t be surprised.
