The Horizon League-leading Wright State Raiders visit Detroit Mercy as 5.5-point favorites, and with Michael Cooper’s status uncertain, our ATS pick evaluates if the Raiders’ defense can stifle a surging Titans squad.
The Setup: Wright State at Detroit Mercy
Wright State is laying 5.5 points on the road at Detroit Mercy on Friday night, and here’s the thing – this number might actually be too low. I can already hear the skepticism: road favorites in mid-major conference games are supposed to be tricky, right? Look, I get the hesitation. But when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this isn’t some coin-flip Horizon League matchup. We’re looking at a legitimate gap between these two squads, and Wright State comes in riding a four-game winning streak with one of the better defensive profiles in the conference. Detroit Mercy is sitting at 4-6, and while they’ve shown flashes at home, the underlying numbers tell me they’re overmatched here. Let me walk you through why this spread makes perfect sense and why I’m actually leaning into the road favorite.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Wright State at Detroit Mercy
Date: January 9, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Location: Calihan Hall, Detroit, MI
Spread: Wright State -5.5 (DraftKings) / -5 (Bovada)
Total: 147.5 (DraftKings) / 148 (Bovada)
Why This Number Makes Sense
Here’s why this line makes sense – the adjusted efficiency gap is massive. Wright State checks in at 107.8 adjusted offensive efficiency (#173 nationally) paired with 102.5 adjusted defensive efficiency (#73) according to collegebasketballdata.com. That gives them an adjusted net rating of +5.3. Detroit Mercy? They’re at 104.3 adjusted offensive (#244) and a concerning 114.3 adjusted defensive (#309) for an adjusted net of -10.0. That’s a 15-point efficiency gap between these teams when you account for strength of schedule.
Do that math over 70 possessions, and you’re looking at a double-digit expected margin. The fact this line is sitting at 5.5 tells me the market is giving Detroit Mercy significant home court credit, and I’m not convinced they’ve earned it. Wright State’s defensive rating of 95.1 (#35 nationally) is elite for this level of basketball. They’re holding opponents to just 66 points per game, and more importantly, they’re limiting teams to 27.9% from three-point range (#31 in the nation). That’s not just good defense – it’s why Wright State has the profile to win on the road in conference play.
Wright State’s Situation
The Raiders are rolling right now, winners of four straight including quality road wins. Michael Cooper leads the offense at 14.6 points per game, but what stands out is the balance – five guys averaging between 7.8 and 14.6 points. This isn’t a one-man show that can be schemed out.
The offense operates at a deliberate 67.1 pace (#235), which plays right into their hands defensively. They’re shooting 49.6% from the field (#43) with an effective field goal percentage of 56.1% (#63). That’s elite shot quality, and it’s supported by solid ball movement at 14.9 assists per game. Here’s the thing – Wright State forces tempo on their terms and makes you execute in the halfcourt. With 9.6 steals per game (#34 nationally), they create transition opportunities without gambling.
The main weakness? Free throw shooting at 64.9% (#330) is concerning if this game gets tight late. But I keep coming back to that defensive rating because it’s just too extreme to ignore. When you’re holding teams to 95.1 points per 100 possessions, you can survive some offensive inefficiency.
Detroit Mercy’s Situation
Detroit Mercy has some pieces – TJ Nadeau (12.5 PPG) and Ayden Carter (12.2 PPG) provide scoring punch, and Orlando Lovejoy dishes out 4.0 assists per game from the point. But the shooting numbers are brutal. They’re connecting on just 26.7% from three (#358 nationally) and posting a 46.0% effective field goal percentage (#344). That’s bottom-tier efficiency.
The Titans do crash the offensive glass well at 35.3% offensive rebounding rate (#50), which creates some second-chance opportunities. They play at a slightly faster 71.1 pace (#102) than Wright State prefers, so there’s a style clash brewing. But here’s the problem – their 111.6 defensive rating (#264) means they’re giving up 1.116 points per possession. Against a Wright State offense that doesn’t turn it over much and shoots efficiently, that’s a recipe for getting picked apart.
The home court at Calihan Hall should provide some juice, and they did beat Cleveland State there recently. But that defensive efficiency number keeps screaming regression to me.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on the three-point line and pace control. Wright State defends the arc at an elite level (27.9% allowed) while Detroit Mercy can’t make threes consistently (26.7%). That’s a massive advantage for the visitors. When Detroit Mercy is forced into contested twos against Wright State’s defense, they’re going to struggle to score efficiently.
The tempo battle favors Wright State as well. They want to grind this into the mid-60s possession range, and with their defensive discipline, they can dictate that pace. Detroit Mercy’s offensive rebounding could keep some possessions alive, but Wright State’s 4.3 blocks per game (#82) and rim protection should limit easy putbacks.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Wright State’s perimeter defense against Detroit Mercy’s perimeter-oriented offense. The Titans don’t score much in the paint (324 points total versus Wright State’s 392), so they’re reliant on jump shooting. Against a team that ranks 31st nationally in three-point defense? That’s asking for trouble.
The historical context supports Wright State too – they won the last meeting 67-50 and took the previous matchup 80-72 on this same floor. Wright State knows how to play in this building.
My Play
Wright State -5.5 for 2 units
I’ve considered the road spot, the home court advantage, all of it, and the efficiency gap is still too massive to ignore. Wright State’s defense is legitimately elite at this level, and Detroit Mercy simply doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep pace. The 15-point adjusted efficiency gap should translate to a comfortable Wright State win.
I’m projecting this one around Wright State 72, Detroit Mercy 64. The Raiders control tempo, limit Detroit Mercy’s three-point attempts, and grind out a workmanlike road conference win. The main risk here is if Detroit Mercy gets hot from three early and builds confidence, but their season-long shooting numbers suggest that’s unlikely.
Wright State has the better team, the better defense, and the momentum. Lay the points with the road favorite.
