The Bucks are looking to impose their will in the paint with Myles Turner’s health in question, while Julius Randle assumes the offensive hub role for a motivated Timberwolves squad. Bash breaks down the 228.5 total and the pace factors to find the sharpest ATS pick on the board.
The Setup: Timberwolves at Bucks
The Bucks are laying 3.5 points at home against Minnesota on Tuesday night, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Milwaukee gets a Timberwolves squad that’s missing both Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert – two foundational pieces that account for significant portions of Minnesota’s offensive creation and defensive rim protection. But here’s the thing: the Bucks are 17-22 and sitting 11th in the Eastern Conference for a reason. Even at home where they’re just 9-9, this is a team that’s been getting exposed in matchups where they need to execute over 96 possessions against competent defenses.
Let me walk you through why this line exists, and more importantly, why it might not adequately account for what Milwaukee is actually bringing to the table right now. Minnesota comes in at 26-14, ranked 4th in the West, and while they’re without their best player and their defensive anchor, they’ve still got Julius Randle averaging 22.0 points and 5.7 assists, plus Jaden McDaniels chipping in 14.7 per game. The Wolves just clawed back from 19 down to beat San Antonio on Sunday, showing the kind of depth and resilience that doesn’t disappear just because Edwards sits.
Milwaukee counters with Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 29.2 points and 9.8 rebounds per game, but after that? Kevin Porter Jr. at 18.2 and Ryan Rollins at 16.6 are your secondary options. That’s not just a talent gap – it’s a structural problem when you’re trying to cover a short number against a team that’s been one of the West’s better road squads at 11-8.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Minnesota Timberwolves (26-14) at Milwaukee Bucks (17-22)
When: January 13, 2026, 8:00 ET
Where: Fiserv Forum
Current Spread: Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Bucks -164 | Timberwolves +133
Total: 228.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market is pricing in two massive absences for Minnesota and giving Milwaukee the benefit of home court and Giannis. I get why that number exists. Edwards is averaging 28.9 points per game – he’s the offensive engine that creates advantages out of isolation and drives Minnesota’s transition game. Gobert is the defensive backbone, a four-time Defensive Player of the Year who anchors their rim protection. Remove both, and theoretically, you’re looking at a Timberwolves team that’s significantly diminished on both ends.
But once you dig into the matchup data, you start seeing why 3.5 might actually be generous to Milwaukee. The Bucks are 17-22 overall and just 9-9 at Fiserv Forum. That home court advantage that’s supposed to be baked into this spread? It’s not showing up consistently. Milwaukee just lost in Denver 108-104 on Sunday, and while the Nuggets were injury-ravaged themselves, the Bucks couldn’t close against a team missing key rotation pieces.
Minnesota’s depth is the factor that keeps this line interesting. With Edwards out, you’re looking at increased usage for Randle, who’s been efficient at 22.0 points and 7.1 rebounds per game. McDaniels steps into a larger offensive role, and Naz Reid – who’ll start at center with Gobert suspended – gives you a legitimate floor-spacing big who can punish Milwaukee’s interior defense. The Wolves have the pieces to redistribute Edwards’ 28.9 points across multiple contributors, and that’s not just speculation – they just proved it by coming back from 19 down against San Antonio without imploding.
Minnesota Timberwolves Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Timberwolves are 26-14 and ranked 4th in the Western Conference, which tells you they’ve been doing something right even in a loaded conference. Their 11-8 road record is particularly relevant here – this isn’t a team that folds away from home. Edwards’ absence is significant, no question. He’s your 28.9 points per game, your primary shot creator, your guy who can get a bucket when the possession clock is winding down. But here’s what Minnesota still has: Julius Randle at 22.0 points, 7.1 rebounds and 5.7 assists. That’s not a secondary option – that’s a legitimate offensive hub who can operate in the post, hit the mid-range, and facilitate.
Jaden McDaniels at 14.7 points gives you another scoring threat who can defend multiple positions, and with Naz Reid stepping into the starting center role, you’re getting a big who can stretch the floor and create mismatches. Reid’s ability to shoot from distance means Milwaukee can’t just pack the paint and dare Minnesota to beat them from outside. The Wolves just showed their depth by erasing a 19-point deficit against San Antonio, with Edwards banking in a go-ahead runner with 16.8 seconds left. That’s resilience, and it’s the kind of characteristic that doesn’t evaporate just because your best player sits one game.
The main concern is rim protection without Gobert. He’s the anchor, the guy who allows Minnesota’s perimeter defenders to be aggressive knowing there’s help at the basket. Without him, the Wolves are more vulnerable to penetration and will need to rotate harder, which can lead to open threes on the back end. But against a Milwaukee team that’s not exactly lighting up the scoreboard consistently, that vulnerability might be manageable.
Milwaukee Bucks Breakdown: The Other Side
Milwaukee’s 17-22 record and 11th place in the Eastern Conference tells you most of what you need to know about where this team is right now. Giannis is doing Giannis things – 29.2 points and 9.8 rebounds per game – but the supporting cast is a significant drop-off. Kevin Porter Jr. at 18.2 points and 7.7 assists is your secondary playmaker, and Ryan Rollins at 16.6 points is trying to fill a larger role than he’s probably ready for. That’s not a knock on either player, but when those are your second and third options, you’re asking Giannis to carry a heavier load than any superstar should have to.
The Bucks’ 9-9 home record is particularly concerning for this line. Home court is supposed to be worth roughly 2-3 points in the spread, but Milwaukee hasn’t been defending Fiserv Forum the way a team laying 3.5 should. They just lost in Denver 108-104, and while the Nuggets got 25 from Tim Hardaway Jr. and 23 from Aaron Gordon, the Bucks couldn’t execute down the stretch. That’s been a pattern – Milwaukee has the talent to stay competitive, but they’re not closing games consistently.
Myles Turner is questionable for this one, which adds another layer of uncertainty. If Turner sits, you’re looking at Bobby Portis and Jericho Sims handling more center minutes, and that’s a significant downgrade in rim protection and rebounding. Even if Turner plays, this is a Bucks team that’s been struggling to find consistent defensive intensity, and against a Minnesota squad that still has multiple offensive weapons, that’s a problem when you’re trying to cover a short number.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests, and it comes down to depth and execution over 96 possessions. Minnesota’s ability to redistribute Edwards’ offensive load is critical. Randle becomes the primary initiator, which actually isn’t a terrible thing – he’s averaging 5.7 assists and can create for others while still getting his 22.0 points. McDaniels steps into a larger scoring role, and with Naz Reid starting at center, the Wolves can play a more spaced-out offensive style that forces Milwaukee’s defense to cover more ground.
The Bucks’ defensive strategy will likely focus on containing Giannis’ matchup and making Minnesota’s role players beat them. But here’s the problem: Minnesota’s role players are actually pretty good. Mike Conley and Bones Hyland can handle point guard duties with Edwards out, and both have enough experience to manage the game without turning it into a chaotic mess. The Wolves’ 11-8 road record suggests they know how to win away from home, and that discipline matters in a game where Milwaukee needs them to crack under pressure.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap. Milwaukee is 17-22 because they’re not consistently executing on both ends. Giannis can dominate stretches, but when you do the math over 96 possessions, the Bucks need contributions from Porter Jr., Rollins, and their role players to build and maintain a lead that covers 3.5. Minnesota, even without Edwards and Gobert, has shown they can stay competitive through depth and ball movement. They just came back from 19 down against San Antonio – that’s not a fluke, that’s a team characteristic.
The pace will favor Minnesota’s depth. If this game stays in the half-court, Giannis can dominate. But if the Wolves can push tempo and get out in transition, they can create easier scoring opportunities that don’t require Edwards to break down the defense. That’s where Randle’s playmaking and Reid’s floor spacing become critical – they give Minnesota multiple ways to generate offense without relying on one player to carry the load.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5 (-110) | 2 Units
I’ve accounted for the Edwards and Gobert absences, and it still doesn’t get there for Milwaukee covering 3.5 at home. The Bucks are 9-9 at Fiserv Forum and 17-22 overall because they’re not executing consistently enough to be laying short numbers against quality opponents. Minnesota is 26-14 and 11-8 on the road – that’s a team that knows how to win away from home, even when circumstances aren’t ideal.
Randle at 22.0 points and 5.7 assists becomes the primary offensive hub, and with McDaniels and Naz Reid providing secondary scoring, the Wolves have enough firepower to keep this competitive. Milwaukee’s reliance on Giannis is a structural problem when you need to cover a spread – if Porter Jr. and Rollins don’t show up, the Bucks don’t have enough depth to pull away from a disciplined Minnesota team.
The main risk here is Giannis going supernova for 40-plus and simply willing Milwaukee to a double-digit win. That’s always on the table with a player of his caliber. But even accounting for that possibility, Minnesota’s depth and road competence make them the right side at plus the points. This number assumes the Wolves collapse without Edwards, and I don’t see that happening against a Milwaukee team that’s been mediocre at home all season. Give me the Timberwolves catching 3.5, and I expect this one to come down to a possession or two in the final minutes.
