The Nuggets are looking to protect their 15-7 road record despite missing their entire starting frontcourt, while New Orleans attempts to exploit the rim with Zion Williamson. Bash dives into the handicapping data to see if the Pelicans point spread pick is the sharp way to play this mismatch.
The Setup: Nuggets at Pelicans
Denver is a 2.5 points road fav when they head to New Orleans on Tuesday night. The Nuggets are 26-13 and sitting third in the West. The Pelicans are 9-32 and dead last in the conference. This should be a straightforward cover for the better team, right?
Here’s the dirt — Denver is playing without Nikola Jokic, Jonas Valanciunas, and Cameron Johnson. That’s their entire starting frontcourt. The Nuggets just beat Milwaukee at home without those guys, getting 25 from Tim Hardaway Jr. and 23 from Aaron Gordon, but that was at altitude with the crowd behind them. Now they’re on the road against a Pelicans team that’s desperate for any kind of momentum at home.
Let me walk you through why this line exists at just 2.5 points. The market is giving Denver credit for being the vastly superior team from a talent and record perspective, but it’s also acknowledging that without Jokic — who’s averaging 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 11.0 assists — this is a fundamentally different basketball team. The Nuggets are 15-7 on the road this season, which is solid, but when you factor in the injury situation and the matchup dynamics, that 2.5-point cushion starts to feel stretched.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans
Date: Tuesday, January 13, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Smoothie King Center
Current Betting Lines (Bovada):
- Spread: Nuggets -2.5 (-115) / Pelicans +2.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Nuggets -145 / Pelicans +125
- Total: 233.0 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market landed at Denver -2.5 because the Nuggets still have Jamal Murray, who’s averaging 25.3 points and 7.5 assists, and Aaron Gordon at 18.4 points and 6.1 rebounds. That’s legitimate star power even without Jokic. But the oddsmakers also had to account for the fact that Denver is now rolling out DaRon Holmes and Zeke Nnaji at center — guys who simply cannot replicate what Jokic brings as a playmaker and offensive hub.
On the other side, New Orleans is 6-17 at home, which is brutal. But they’ve got Zion Williamson averaging 22.8 points, Trey Murphy III at 21.6 points and 6.2 rebounds, and enough talent to stay competitive in spots like this. The Pelicans are missing Dejounte Murray and Herbert Jones, but they’re not as decimated as Denver’s frontcourt situation.
The total sitting at 233.0 tells you the market expects a relatively high-scoring game, which makes sense given both teams’ offensive firepower. But once you dig into the matchup data, the question becomes whether Denver can generate enough efficient offense without Jokic’s playmaking to pull away from a Pelicans team that should have every motivation to compete at home.
Nuggets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Denver’s 26-13 record is impressive, but it’s built almost entirely on Jokic’s brilliance. He’s not just their best player — he’s their entire offensive system. Without him, the Nuggets become a much more isolation-heavy team that relies on Murray and Gordon to create their own looks. That worked against Milwaukee at home, where Tim Hardaway Jr. caught fire for 25 points and Peyton Watson added 19, but that kind of secondary scoring isn’t something you can count on every night.
The Nuggets are 15-7 on the road, which suggests they travel well, but those road wins came with Jokic orchestrating the offense. Now you’re asking Murray to be both the primary scorer and the primary facilitator, which is a lot to handle against a Pelicans defense that can throw length at him with guys like Trey Murphy III.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap. Denver’s offense runs through Jokic’s ability to make the right read every single time down the floor. Without him, they’re a good team, but they’re not the elite offensive machine that justifies laying points on the road in a tough spot.
Pelicans Breakdown: The Other Side
New Orleans is 9-32, and their 6-17 home record is ugly. But context matters here. They just lost to Orlando 128-118, and while that’s a loss, they put up 118 points against a solid Magic defense. Zion is healthy and producing at 22.8 points per game, and Trey Murphy III has been a revelation at 21.6 points and 6.2 boards.
The Pelicans are missing Dejounte Murray for the season and Herbert Jones with an ankle sprain, but they’re not facing a full-strength Denver team either. This is a matchup between two depleted rosters, and in that scenario, the home team getting 2.5 points has real value.
Jordan Poole is averaging 15.5 points, and rookie Jeremiah Fears has been starting at point guard in Murray’s absence. That’s not ideal, but against a Denver team without its defensive anchor in the paint, New Orleans should be able to generate enough clean looks to stay within this number.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the paint and on the glass. Without Jokic and Valanciunas, Denver has no rim protection and no rebounding presence. That’s a massive problem against a Pelicans team that features Zion attacking downhill and Murphy crashing from the wing.
On the surface, Denver should have the edge in backcourt talent with Murray running the show, but Jamal has to do everything now — score, facilitate, and carry the offensive load for 35+ minutes. That’s a lot to ask on the road in a spot where the Pelicans are desperate for a home win.
The total at 233.0 suggests both teams should score, and I agree with that assessment. But the question isn’t whether Denver can score — it’s whether they can score efficiently enough to cover 2.5 points without their best player. Once you factor in pace and possessions, this matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests.
New Orleans should be able to control the paint, limit Denver’s second-chance opportunities, and keep this game within a possession or two down the stretch. That’s all they need to do to cash this ticket.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: New Orleans Pelicans +2.5 (-105) | 2 Units
I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get Denver to a comfortable cover. The Nuggets are a good team, but they’re not a team that should be laying points on the road without Nikola Jokic, Jonas Valanciunas, and Cameron Johnson. That’s three starters, including the best player on the planet.
New Orleans is 9-32, but they’ve got enough offensive firepower with Zion and Trey Murphy III to keep this game competitive at home. The Pelicans are getting 2.5 points in a spot where they should be able to control the paint and force Denver into difficult shots without their offensive hub.
The main risk here is that Murray goes nuclear and carries Denver to a blowout, but even in that scenario, I trust New Orleans to stay within the number at home. Give me the Pelicans plus the points on Tuesday night at the Smoothie King Center.
