The New York Knicks head to Sacramento as a heavy favorite, looking to exploit a Kings roster decimated by injuries to Domantas Sabonis and Keegan Murray. While a double-digit road spread is always a tall task, the efficiency gap between these two squads suggests a significant talent mismatch in the paint.
The Setup: Knicks at Kings
Oddsmakers have installed the Knicks as a massive 11.5-point road favorite for Wednesday’s clash, a line that reflects the current reality of a Sacramento frontcourt missing its most vital anchors.
Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I actually think New York gets there anyway. The Knicks have been one of the most consistent offensive teams in the league this season, and Sacramento is missing the two players who anchor their entire system. Domantas Sabonis remains out with a partially torn meniscus, and Keegan Murray just went down with a left ankle sprain that could sideline him for four weeks. That’s not just rotation depth — that’s the Kings’ defensive identity and their best rebounder.
When you factor in how this matchup actually plays out over 96 possessions, the margin starts to tilt toward New York’s ability to control tempo and exploit a depleted frontcourt. I’m not saying this is a lock, but I am saying the number is justified — and beatable.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: New York Knicks at Sacramento Kings
Date: Wednesday, January 14, 2026
Time: 10:00 ET
Location: Golden 1 Center
TV: Check local listings
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Knicks -11.5 (-110) | Kings +11.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Knicks -526 | Kings +374
- Total: 232.0 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market is telling you that the Knicks are more than a touchdown better than the Kings in a neutral environment, and when you account for personnel, that’s hard to argue. New York is 25-14 with the second-best record in the East. Sacramento is 10-30 and has lost 27 of their last 37 games. That’s a 15-game gap in the standings, and it shows up in every efficiency metric that matters.
But here’s where it gets interesting: the Knicks are 8-10 on the road. That’s not a dominant road team. They’re 16-4 at home, which means they’re giving back nearly all their value when they travel. The Kings, meanwhile, are 7-13 at Golden 1 Center — not good, but not historically terrible either. They just beat the Lakers 124-112 on Monday with DeMar DeRozan dropping 32 points and Malik Monk hitting seven threes for 26 points.
So why is the line still 11.5? Because Sabonis and Murray are out. Sabonis is averaging 17.2 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game. That’s not just production — that’s the engine of Sacramento’s offense. He sets screens, facilitates from the elbow, and controls the glass. Without him, the Kings are starting rookie Maxime Raynaud, who’s getting his first extended NBA run. Murray, their best perimeter defender and a guy who can stretch the floor, is also sidelined for potentially a month.
The Knicks, by contrast, are healthy outside of Landry Shamet, who hasn’t played since November. Jalen Brunson is averaging 28.9 points and 6.3 assists. Karl-Anthony Towns is putting up 21.2 points and 11.4 rebounds. Mikal Bridges is chipping in 15.9 points per game. That’s three guys who can dominate a depleted Kings frontcourt, and the market knows it.
Knicks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
New York’s offense runs through Brunson, and he’s been one of the most efficient high-usage guards in the league this season. He’s scoring 28.9 points per game on a balanced diet of pick-and-roll, pull-up jumpers, and drives to the rim. He had 26 points in Portland on Sunday, and the Knicks won 123-114 despite being on the road. That’s the kind of performance you need from your lead guard in a spot like this.
Karl-Anthony Towns gives them a massive advantage inside. He’s averaging a double-double with 21.2 points and 11.4 rebounds, and he’s going up against a Kings team that’s starting a rookie center. Towns had 20 points and 11 boards against Portland, and he should feast on the glass and in the post against Sacramento’s makeshift frontcourt.
Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby provide the kind of two-way versatility that makes this team dangerous. Anunoby dropped 24 points in Portland, and Bridges added 18 with six assists and six rebounds. When you’ve got four guys who can score 18-plus on any given night, you’re not relying on one player to carry the load. That’s how you cover double-digit spreads on the road.
The concern? New York is 8-10 away from home, and they’ve had trouble closing out games when the pace gets sloppy or the officiating tilts. But against a Kings team missing its two best players, the margin for error is wider than usual.
Kings Breakdown: The Other Side
Sacramento’s season has been a disaster, but they’ve shown flashes of competence when DeRozan and Monk get hot. DeRozan is averaging 19.0 points and 3.9 assists, and he’s been their most reliable scorer in the absence of Sabonis. He had 32 points against the Lakers on Monday, and he’s the kind of mid-range assassin who can keep you in games even when the structure breaks down.
Monk is their wildcard. He’s averaging 19.9 points per game (listed under Zach LaVine’s stats, but Monk is the active scorer here), and when he’s hitting from deep, he can single-handedly swing a quarter. He made seven threes against the Lakers, and that kind of variance is what keeps spreads like this from being automatic.
The problem is everything else. Without Sabonis, the Kings have no rim protection, no rebounding anchor, and no facilitator from the high post. Raynaud is a rookie who’s learning on the fly, and he’s going up against Karl-Anthony Towns. That’s not a fair fight. Without Murray, their perimeter defense is porous, and they have no one to match up with Bridges or Anunoby on the wing.
Sacramento is 7-13 at home, and that includes two straight wins against a Blazers team that’s also struggling and a Lakers squad that’s been inconsistent all season. The Knicks are a different level of opponent, and the personnel mismatch is glaring.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the paint and on the glass. The Knicks have a massive advantage with Towns going up against Raynaud, and that’s going to show up in second-chance points and easy buckets in the restricted area. When you do the math over 96 possessions, even a modest rebounding edge translates to 4-6 extra possessions, and that’s the difference between covering 11.5 and falling short.
The other factor is pace. The Kings want to push tempo and get out in transition, but without Sabonis to grab defensive boards and trigger the break, they’re going to struggle to generate easy offense. The Knicks, meanwhile, can control the game through Brunson’s pick-and-roll and Towns’ post-ups. That’s a slower, more methodical style that favors the more talented team.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap. New York has four guys who can score 18-plus on any night. Sacramento has two, and one of them (Monk) is a volume shooter who can go cold just as easily as he gets hot. The Kings are missing their best player and their best defender. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts.
The main risk here is variance. If Monk goes 7-for-12 from three again and DeRozan gets to the line 10 times, Sacramento can keep this within single digits. But that requires everything to break right for a 10-30 team that’s missing its two best players. I’m betting on the more likely outcome.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Knicks -11.5 (-110) | 2 Units
I’ve accounted for the road spot, the recent Kings wins, and the fact that New York is 8-10 away from home. And it still doesn’t get there. The personnel mismatch is too severe. Towns is going to dominate the paint. Brunson is going to control the tempo. Bridges and Anunoby are going to shut down the Kings’ secondary options. Sacramento is playing a rookie center and a makeshift rotation, and they’re going up against a team that’s 25-14 and fighting for playoff seeding.
The main risk is a slow start or a hot shooting night from Monk, but even if that happens, the Knicks have the depth and talent to pull away in the second half. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests — in New York’s favor. I’m laying the 11.5 with confidence and expecting the Knicks to win by 15-plus.
