RBD breaks down 49ers vs Seahawks with a playoff betting pick, focusing on defense, rest angles, and postseason handicapping trends.
San Fran at Seattle
Saturday, January 18th, 8:00 p.m. on FOX
Yes, one of the primary rules of sports betting is don’t bet on a team just because they’re your favorite.
Yes, I did that last week with the Seahawks and got away with it, banking a unit.
And yes, I’m going to do it again this week.
None of the unique handicapping models I use has kicked out of play for me to use this weekend so I’m going to do what most non betting fans do — enjoy watching the game and rooting for my team.
But it’s not like I don’t have some stats in my favor.
After watching Seattle’s defense in a winner-take-all situation against San Francisco two weeks ago — holding the Niners to just three points at home in San Fran — I like them to do the same this week.
Let’s dig into the numbers.
First on my handicapping mind is the question:
“How do NFL playoff teams do after having the bye in the Wild Card round?”
Last season Kansas City and Detroit had a bye in the Wild Card round.
Despite the extra rest, neither team covered the spread.
Kansas City won by nine points as 10-point Favs.
Detroit lost SU 45-31 to Washington.
The KC non-cover was by a single point — close but no cigar.
Detroit?
Well, as people learned again this year, Dan Campbell has exploitable weaknesses as a head coach.
Let’s go back one more year for some recent history.
According to AI:
“For the 2023 NFL season, the two teams with a first-round bye were the Kansas City Chiefs (AFC #1 seed) and the Baltimore Ravens (NFC #1 seed).”
See the problem with AI?
(Hint — it says the Ravens finished with the best record in the NFC. The NFC.)
Yet, the internet is full of prognosticators quoting AI stats and using AI generated write-ups.
Anyway . . .
The two teams receiving the bye in the 2023/24 season were the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers.
In the divisional round, both teams were Double Digit Favorites and both won straight up.
Baltimore covered the spread.
San Fran didn’t.
For the two year look back, rested teams are 3-1 SU but only 1-3 ATS.
Let’s do one more.
For the 2022/23 season, the Eagles and the Chiefs had the bye in the Wild Card round.
In the divisional round, both teams won SU.
The Chiefs failed to cover as Double Digit Favs.
The Eagles easily covered an eight point spread.
That means for a three year look back, Double Digit Favs in the divisional round are just 1-3 ATS.
Looking at this week’s schedule, none of the four Favs are laying more than a TD.
But let’s file this 1-3 ATS record in our notes for things to look at for next year’s post season.
Let’s get back to my Seattle play.
The Seahawks opened at -6 and are currently sitting at -7 in the game against the 49ers.
The two teams split the regular season, but Seattle took the game with the most meaning — the one when the money was on the table.
The battle for first place in Week 17.
It wasn’t a stellar performance by the Seahawk offense as they managed to put up just 13 points.
But that’s all they needed.
Their defense held Purdy, McCaffrey, and the Niners to just three points at home in San Francisco.
And now the Niners have to travel to Seattle, where the Seahawks benefit from one of the best home field advantages in the NFL.
At +7, this is the largest spread San Fran has been gifted with all season.
The Seahawks are 2-2 ATS with a spread of -7 or higher.
But 2-1 ATS when laying a TD or more at home.
One more thing I want to look at — how did Seattle do off of their bye this year?
I checked, and got the good news I was hoping for.
With the extra week of rest and game planning, the Seahawks came up with a 38-14 victory.
Diminishing that just a bit is the fact that their opponent was Washington.
But it was on the road.
Being at home this weekend gives them a little extra edge.
While the Seahawks were resting and putting together a game plan, the Niners came up with a huge victory on the road in Philadelphia.
But it took a 13-3 fourth quarter for San Fran to come from behind.
That was against an Eagles team that didn’t perform well defensively in crunch time.
And an offense that was inept for the entire game — just like they were for the entire regular season.
I expect this game to be similar to the Week 17 meeting.
A close, hard fought battle.
Which is exactly the type of betting situation when you want to be on the team with the better defense.
And there’s no doubt who that team is.
Just like in my write-up for the Week 17 game, I’ll close with one more important stat.
The Seahawks PPG differential (+191) is almost THREE times higher than San Fran’s (+66).
And that Seattle defense — they’re CRUSHING it.
Holding opponents to an average of just 12.5 points over their last six games.
Remove the overtime game against the Rams and the Seahawks are holding opponents to just 7.6 PPG.
It’s the playoffs.
When defense makes the difference.
It may be a homer bet, but I’m okay with that.
Especially with this Seattle D.
And one more thing.
San Fran is already the walking wounded, decimated by injuries.
Last week they lost one of their only remaining offensive weapons — tight end George Kittle.
The Seattle D’s game plan just got a lot easier.
My play: Seattle -7
Recap: 1-0
Record: 15-8
Review:
I only made one play last week, but it was a good one.
My article was “thinking out loud”, displaying my handicapping process.
In it, I looked over the playoff card and made some elimination.
What I was left with was New England.
The Patriots dismantled the Chargers.
As noted and expected, LAC QB Herbert can get you part of the way there, but not all the way.
The Pats took a 3-0 lead early in the second quarter and never fell behind from that point on.
They held the Chargers to 159 receiving yards, 87 rushing yards, and just three points.
Three!
Part of being a winning handicapper is not relying on your memory.
Keep written notes or a database.
In this case, make a note for next post season.
Look at the teams that come in after having lost two or more straight games to end the regular season.
Like LAC — and FADE them!
