St. John’s enters Finneran Pavilion as a slight favorite in some shops, but the market is moving them up to -3 as tip-off approaches. Bash looks at the 20-point gap in defensive efficiency and asks if the Red Storm’s elite offensive rebounding can secure a free pick win against a Wildcats team that ranks bottom-five nationally in block rate.
The Setup: St. John’s at Villanova
St. John’s is laying 2.5 points on the road at Villanova, and if that feels backwards to you, you’re not alone. The Red Storm walking into Finneran Pavilion as favorites? That’s not how this rivalry usually scripts itself. But here’s the thing: when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this line isn’t just defensible—it’s actually pretty sharp. St. John’s checks in at 22nd nationally in adjusted net efficiency (18.9), while Villanova sits at 34th (16.2). That gap matters. The Red Storm are playing faster (#21 in pace at 74.4 possessions), scoring more efficiently (#49 in adjusted offense at 116.5), and defending at an elite level (#27 in adjusted defense at 97.6). Meanwhile, Villanova’s crawling along at 296th in pace (64.9) and their defensive numbers have slipped to 94th in adjusted defensive efficiency (103.5). This isn’t your father’s Villanova team grinding opponents into submission. This is a St. John’s squad that’s won four of five, including road beatdowns at Creighton and Butler, facing a Wildcats team that’s good but not great on the defensive end.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: St. John’s at Villanova
Date: January 17, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Finneran Pavilion, Villanova, PA
Records: St. John’s (5-3) | Villanova (7-1)
Spread: St. John’s -2.5
Total: 149.5
Moneyline: Villanova -118 | St. John’s -102
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market landed on St. John’s -2.5 because the efficiency gap is real, even if it feels weird giving points to the road team in a Big East battle. Let’s do the math here. St. John’s has an adjusted offensive efficiency of 116.5 and an adjusted defensive efficiency of 97.6. Villanova sits at 119.7 and 103.5 respectively. On a neutral court, these teams are basically even—maybe St. John’s by a bucket. Add in home court (typically worth 3-4 points), and suddenly Villanova should be a small favorite, right? Not so fast. The pace differential is massive. St. John’s wants to play at 74.4 possessions per game. Villanova grinds at 64.9. When the faster team controls tempo—and St. John’s has been dominant lately—they typically get their way. That extra 10 possessions matters enormously in a game where efficiency is close. The total at 149.5 is fascinating too. If we split the difference on pace and land around 70 possessions, you need both teams combining for about 2.13 points per possession. St. John’s offensive rating is 118.6, Villanova’s is 127.9. The math actually suggests this total is about right, maybe even a touch low given how both teams can score.
St. John’s Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Red Storm are absolutely rolling right now, and it starts with their offensive rebounding dominance. They rank 18th nationally in offensive rebound percentage (36.8%), which is crucial against a Villanova team that doesn’t block shots (358th at 1.5 per game). When St. John’s misses—and they will, shooting just 33.0% from three (#202)—they’re getting those second chances. Zuby Ejiofor (15.5 PPG) and Dillon Mitchell (10.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG) are absolute monsters on the glass. The defensive profile is what separates them though. That 27th-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency (97.6) isn’t an accident. They’re blocking shots (26th at 5.1 per game), forcing turnovers, and holding opponents to 41.1% from the field (#88). Bryce Hopkins (15.1 PPG) and Ian Jackson (11.4 PPG) give them versatility on both ends. The concern? Three-point shooting. At 33.0%, they’re 202nd nationally. If Villanova can pack the paint and force them to beat them from deep, this could get dicey.
Villanova Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Don’t sleep on the Wildcats just because the efficiency numbers aren’t vintage Nova. They’re still 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency (119.7) for a reason—they can absolutely score. Bryce Lindsay (18.1 PPG) is a legitimate bucket-getter, and Acaden Lewis (12.8 PPG, 5.8 APG) ranks 39th nationally in assists. That’s elite playmaking. The three-point shooting is legit too: 38.0% as a team (#33), which should theoretically exploit St. John’s perimeter defense. Duke Brennan is the X-factor—the kid ranks first nationally in rebounding at 12.9 boards per game. Against St. John’s aggressive offensive rebounding attack, Brennan’s presence is massive. The problem is pace and defense. Villanova wants to slow this down, but St. John’s has been forcing tempo all season. And that 94th-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency? That’s problematic against a Red Storm offense that ranks 49th in adjusted efficiency. The Wildcats are allowing 42.5% from three (364th nationally). That’s brutal. If St. John’s shooters get going—and that’s a big if—this could get away from Nova.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to two battles: pace and the glass. St. John’s wants to push tempo to 74+ possessions. Villanova wants to grind this into the mid-60s. Historically, the home team controls pace, but St. John’s has been forcing their will lately—they just hung 90 at Creighton and 84 at Butler. If they get into the 70s possession-wise, that favors them enormously. The rebounding battle is equally critical. St. John’s ranks 18th in offensive rebound percentage. Villanova ranks 2nd. When an unstoppable force meets an immovable object, something’s gotta give. Duke Brennan versus Ejiofor and Mitchell is must-watch basketball. Here’s the wrinkle: Villanova’s three-point defense is a disaster (364th), but St. John’s can’t shoot threes (202nd). That’s a fascinating tension. Can St. John’s exploit Nova’s perimeter weakness despite their own limitations? Or will Villanova’s 38.0% three-point shooting (33rd) punish St. John’s 113th-ranked three-point defense (31.1% allowed)? The head-to-head history leans St. John’s—they’ve won two straight against Nova, including a 70-50 beatdown in 2024.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m taking St. John’s -2.5, and I’m not overthinking this. The efficiency gap is real, the momentum is real, and the matchup favors the Red Storm. Yes, laying points on the road in the Big East is always dicey, but this isn’t a typical road spot. St. John’s has won four straight, including dominant road performances at quality Big East venues. Villanova’s defensive issues are legitimate—94th in adjusted defense, 364th in three-point defense allowed. Even if St. John’s can’t shoot threes, they’ll get to the rim and dominate the offensive glass. The pace battle favors St. John’s too. They’re going to push this into the 70s possession-wise, and when that happens, their superior adjusted net efficiency should carry them. Give me the Red Storm laying the short number. This feels like a 6-8 point St. John’s win.
