Nebraska’s #32-ranked adjusted defensive rating is the focal point of tonight’s Big Ten prediction. While Washington boasts a top-tier rebounder in Hannes Steinbach, the Huskies’ 251st-ranked effective field goal percentage suggests a long night at Pinnacle Bank Arena.
The Setup: Washington at Nebraska
Nebraska’s laying 11.5 to 12 points at home against Washington, and the market’s telling you exactly what it thinks about this Big Ten matchup. The Cornhuskers are 9-0, riding high at Pinnacle Bank Arena, and the numbers back up every point of this spread. Washington limps in at 6-3 with four losses in their last five games, and when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency data, this isn’t just about records—it’s about fundamental basketball quality. Nebraska’s adjusted defensive rating sits at 98.5, ranking 32nd nationally, while Washington checks in at 101.2 on adjusted offense, good for 101st. That’s a 12.7-point gap in adjusted efficiency metrics favoring the home team, and suddenly this double-digit spread doesn’t look like Vegas getting greedy.
Here’s my thesis: Nebraska covers because Washington can’t score efficiently enough to hang with a defense this stout, and the Huskers’ ball movement advantage will create enough clean looks to pull away in the second half.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Washington @ Nebraska
Date: January 21, 2026
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Venue: Pinnacle Bank Arena, Lincoln, NE
Betting Lines:
- Spread: Nebraska -11.5 (DraftKings) / -12 (Bovada)
- Over/Under: 150.5 (DraftKings) / 151 (Bovada)
- Moneyline: Nebraska -900 / Washington +575 (Bovada)
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s work backwards from the spread. Nebraska’s adjusted net efficiency sits at 15.6, ranking 38th nationally. Washington’s at 10.4, good for 69th. That’s a 5.2-point gap in adjusted metrics, and home court in college basketball typically adds 3 to 4 points. You’re already at 8 to 9 points before we even talk about current form and matchup specifics. The market landed at 11.5 to 12 because it’s accounting for Washington’s recent struggles—one win in five games—and Nebraska’s perfect 9-0 record that includes quality wins over Indiana and Ohio State on the road.
The tempo factor matters here too. Washington plays at a 67.4 pace, ranking 222nd nationally. Nebraska’s at 71.2, 98th in the country. This isn’t going to be a track meet, which means fewer possessions and tighter variance. But here’s the thing: Nebraska’s offensive rating of 117.6 paired with Washington’s defensive rating of 104.1 suggests the Huskers will score efficiently in a controlled game. When you flip it—Washington’s 115.6 offensive rating against Nebraska’s 94.7 defensive rating—the Huskies are facing a massive uphill climb.
The total at 150.5 to 151 makes perfect sense given the pace and defensive capabilities. Nebraska allows just 67.9 points per game, ranking 72nd in opponent scoring. Even with Washington averaging 82.4 points, this Nebraska defense will force them into uncomfortable half-court sets.
Washington Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Washington’s got one legitimate weapon that could cause problems: Hannes Steinbach. The forward’s putting up 18.5 points and 12.8 rebounds per game, and that rebounding number ranks 2nd nationally. That’s elite. Washington’s overall rebounding sits at 41.4 per game, ranking 39th, with an offensive rebounding percentage of 34.3%, good for 81st. If there’s a path to covering, it runs through second-chance points and controlling the glass.
The problem? Everything else. Washington’s effective field goal percentage sits at 50.4%, ranking 251st nationally. Their assist rate is brutal—just 13.4 per game, ranking 242nd. That tells you they’re not creating quality shots through ball movement. Wesley Yates III provides secondary scoring at 16.2 points per game, but look at his assist numbers: just 1.0 per game. This is an isolation-heavy offense that relies on individual creation against a Nebraska defense that ranks 21st in opponent field goal percentage at 37.9%.
The recent results confirm the concerns. Losses to Michigan State, Michigan, Purdue, and Indiana—all by margins ranging from 8 to 17 points. Their lone win in five games came against Ohio State, and even that was just a seven-point margin.
Nebraska Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Nebraska’s 9-0 record isn’t a mirage. This team ranks 34th in defensive rating at 94.7, and they’re holding opponents to 30.2% from three-point range, good for 87th nationally. Rienk Mast and Pryce Sandfort give them a balanced inside-outside attack—Mast at 18.1 points per game and Sandfort at 15.8. But the real story is ball movement. Nebraska dishes out 18.4 assists per game, ranking 31st nationally, while turning it over just 10.2 times per game, 46th in the country.
That assist-to-turnover profile is lethal. Sam Hoiberg facilitates at 3.9 assists per game, ranking 186th nationally among all players, while Jamarques Lawrence adds 3.6 assists per game. This is a team that shares the ball and takes care of it, creating high-percentage looks. Their effective field goal percentage of 56.6% ranks 51st, and their true shooting percentage of 59.6% sits 73rd. They’re not just scoring—they’re scoring efficiently.
The recent win streak includes gutsy road victories at Indiana and Ohio State, plus a nail-biter at home against Michigan State. This team knows how to win close games, and they’ve got the defensive chops to blow teams out when they get rolling—see the 90-55 beatdown of Oregon.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to Washington’s inability to score in the half-court against elite defense. Nebraska’s 37.9% opponent field goal percentage will suffocate an offense that already struggles with efficiency. Washington’s 44.6% field goal percentage ranks 219th nationally, and when you’re facing a defense that ranks 21st in opponent shooting, those numbers are going to crater.
The rebounding battle will be competitive—Washington’s strength meets Nebraska’s relative weakness at 24.2% offensive rebounding percentage, ranking 353rd. But here’s the catch: even if Washington wins the glass, they still need to convert those second chances against a defense that’s allowing just 67.9 points per game.
Nebraska’s ball movement advantage is massive. They’re 31st in assists versus Washington’s 242nd ranking. That 5.0 assists per game gap translates to 10-15 more quality shots per game. In a game with a pace in the high 60s to low 70s, that’s the difference between covering and not covering.
Washington’s turnover numbers aren’t bad—11.7 per game, ranking 135th—but Nebraska generates 146 points off turnovers compared to Washington’s 114. The Huskers will capitalize on every mistake, and Washington can’t afford to give away possessions against a team this efficient.
Bash’s Best Bet
Nebraska -11.5 (-110)
I’m laying the points with Nebraska at home. Washington’s one-dimensional offense can’t hang with this defense, and the efficiency gap is too wide to ignore. Nebraska’s 15.6 adjusted net efficiency versus Washington’s 10.4 tells you everything you need to know about the quality gap here. Add in Washington’s 1-4 record in their last five games and Nebraska’s perfect 9-0 mark, and this number feels short, not long.
The rebounding edge for Washington worries me slightly, but Steinbach can’t beat Nebraska by himself. Nebraska’s ball movement and defensive discipline will wear down the Huskies over 40 minutes. I expect Nebraska to lead by 6-8 at halftime and extend it to 14-16 down the stretch as Washington’s offensive limitations become glaring. Lay the points.
