New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos – AFC Championship NFL Picks & Predictions
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Sunday, January 25, 2026
Time: 3:00 PM ET
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Odds: New England Patriots -4.5 | Total: 42.5
The Rundown
The market reacted immediately to Bo Nix’s season-ending ankle injury, opening New England -4.5 and holding firm. The total has climbed from 40.5 to 42.5, signaling some expectation that New England can still generate offense even in a slower, more controlled game script.
From an efficiency standpoint, the Patriots own a meaningful edge. New England ranks 4th in Points Per Play (0.456) compared to Denver’s 15th-ranked 0.374. That gap matters in postseason football. The Patriots also lead in Yards Per Play (6.0 vs 5.3) and Yards Per Point on offense (13.25 vs 14.23), showing they convert yardage into points more efficiently.
Defensively, Denver remains elite. The Broncos rank 3rd in opponent Points Per Play (0.299), slightly better than New England’s 0.307. Over 11–12 possessions, that difference is roughly worth a field goal. The hinge point becomes whether Denver’s offense can do anything with those stops.
Why New England Has the Edge
The Patriots’ offensive efficiency gives them control of the game environment. They average 28.1 Points Per Game (5th) compared to Denver’s 24.1 (13th), and the Points Per Play gap is one of the largest you’ll see in a conference championship.
Red zone execution is solid on both sides, but New England’s ability to finish drives matters more given Denver’s quarterback situation. The Patriots score touchdowns on 55.22% of red zone trips, while Denver allows 44.23% — strong, but not dominant when paired with limited offensive support.
Turnovers lean slightly toward New England. The Patriots generate 1.3 takeaways per game while committing 1.1 giveaways. Denver sits closer to neutral. With a backup quarterback starting in this spot, even a small possession edge is amplified.
Defensively, New England has quietly been locking teams down. The Patriots have held seven of their last nine opponents to 20 points or fewer, reinforcing the idea that this defense travels and can control games without needing shootout conditions.
On third down, New England converts at a 41.26% rate, which profiles well against Denver’s 35.71% opponent rate. That points toward longer drives and fewer empty possessions — exactly what you want on the road at altitude.
The Numbers That Matter
- Points Per Game: New England 28.1 (5th) vs Denver 24.1 (13th)
- Yards Per Point (Power Stat): New England 13.25 off / 16.13 def vs Denver 14.23 off / 15.19 def
- Points Per Play: New England 0.456 vs Denver 0.374
- Yards Per Play: New England 6.0 vs Denver 5.3
- 3rd Down Conversion %: New England 41.26% vs Denver 41.77%
- Red Zone TD Scoring %: New England 55.22% vs Denver 55.74%
Denver’s defensive profile demands respect. They rank 2nd in opponent Yards Per Play (4.5) and 3rd in opponent Points Per Game (18.9), and their pass rush led the league with 68 sacks.
That said, New England’s passing efficiency is built to mitigate pressure. Their 8.8 Yards Per Pass Attempt and league-best 70.48% completion rate suggest they can stay on schedule without asking the quarterback to hold the ball.
Market Context
The spread has stayed firm at Patriots -4.5, while the total has moved upward. That reflects belief in New England’s ability to score, but continued skepticism about Denver’s offensive ceiling without Nix.
This number removes the common three-point margin and asks New England to create separation. Based on efficiency and current personnel, they’re better equipped to do that.
The Bottom Line & Predictions
Prediction
New England Patriots 24, Denver Broncos 13
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐⭐ New England Patriots -4.5 — Denver’s offensive ceiling drops without Nix, and New England’s efficiency profile is built to take advantage.
- ⭐⭐ Under 42.5 — New England’s defense has consistently capped opponents, and Denver’s scoring options are limited.
Game Flow Projection: New England controls pace with sustained drives and field position. Denver’s defense keeps the game competitive early, but without consistent offense, those stops don’t flip momentum. The Patriots separate late as efficiency and ball control take over.
KEY ANGLE: New England’s Points Per Play edge combined with recent defensive consistency creates a narrow but reliable margin.
