LA Rams vs Seattle Seahawks picks and predictions for the NFC Championship Game, breaking down efficiency metrics, pace, defensive matchups, and why Seattle’s profile fits this spot at home.
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Sunday, January 25, 2026
Time: 6:30 PM ET
Venue: Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Odds: Seattle Seahawks -2.5 | Total: 46.5
The Rundown
This matchup has been priced tight from the start, and for good reason. Seattle opened as a short home favorite and quickly settled at -2.5, where it’s stayed. The total has drifted down from the high 40s, reflecting respect for two defenses that can control games when it matters most.
On the surface, this looks like a classic strength-on-strength game. The Rams bring the league’s top scoring offense at 30.1 points per game, while Seattle counters with the NFL’s most efficient defense. But when you strip away volume and look at how each team actually converts plays into points, Seattle quietly owns the efficiency edge.
Los Angeles ranks second in Points Per Play at 0.463, which is elite. The surprise is that Seattle is even better, leading the league at 0.491. That gap doesn’t jump off the screen, but over a typical 11–12 drive championship game, it’s the difference between settling and separating.
Why Seattle Has the Edge
Seattle’s advantage starts with defensive efficiency. They allow just 16.6 points per game and rank first in opponent Points Per Play. This isn’t a defense that relies on turnovers or chaos — they simply make offenses work for everything.
The Yards Per Point numbers tell the clearest story. Seattle’s offense needs just 11.94 yards to generate a point, while their defense forces opponents to burn 17.08 yards per point. That’s an elite profile on both sides of the ball. By comparison, the Rams sit at 13.04 offensively and 16.03 defensively — still strong, but not as clean.
Third down is another separator. Seattle holds opponents under 33% conversion, best in the league. That’s critical against a Rams offense built on rhythm and sustained drives. If LA can’t stay ahead of the chains, their explosive passing attack becomes easier to contain.
Home field matters here, too. Lumen Field consistently compresses games. Crowd noise, weather, and surface all favor a defense that thrives on communication and discipline — exactly what Seattle brings.
The Numbers That Matter
- Points Per Game: LA 30.1 vs Seattle 29.1
- Yards Per Point: LA 13.04 off / 16.03 def vs SEA 11.94 off / 17.08 def
- Points Per Play: LA 0.463 vs SEA 0.491
- Yards Per Play: LA 6.0 vs SEA 5.9
- 3rd Down Conversion %: LA 38.01% vs SEA 39.81%
- Red Zone TD %: LA 64.29% vs SEA 55.38%
The Rams do hold the red-zone edge, and that’s the reason this spread isn’t higher. But Seattle counters by limiting how often teams even reach scoring position. They allow the fewest yards per play in football and rank first in opponent Points Per Play.
Seattle’s pass defense is the toughest Stafford has faced this postseason. They allow just 6.0 yards per pass attempt and 190.3 passing yards per game. That forces LA into longer drives — and longer drives increase the odds of mistakes.
The turnover margin slightly favors the Rams, but Seattle’s takeaway rate matches them almost exactly. This isn’t a turnover-driven handicap; it’s an efficiency one.
Game Environment & Pace
Seattle plays at a slower, more controlled pace, ranking second in rush rate. With Zach Charbonnet out, Kenneth Walker III should see a heavy workload. That leans into Seattle’s strength — time of possession, field position, and limiting total drives.
Fewer possessions favor the team that scores more efficiently per snap. That’s Seattle.
The Bottom Line & Predictions
Prediction
Seattle Seahawks 24, Los Angeles Rams 21
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐⭐ Seattle Seahawks -2.5 — Seattle’s per-play efficiency and defensive profile create a narrow but reliable edge at home.
- ⭐⭐ Under 46.5 — Pace, pass defense, and limited possessions keep this from turning into a shootout.
- ⭐ Kenneth Walker III Over 20.5 Rush Attempts — Game script and backfield injuries point to volume.
Game Flow Projection: Seattle leans on Walker early to establish tempo and limit possessions. The defense forces the Rams into longer drives, tightening in the red zone. LA keeps it close behind Stafford’s efficiency, but Seattle’s ability to win on a per-play basis shows up late. A one-score game throughout, with the Seahawks doing just enough to separate.
