The market is laying nearly double digits with the Cyclones, but Oklahoma State is 12-1 straight up in its last 13 home games. This ATS pick analyzes if Vyctorius Miller and the Cowboys’ top-20 free throw rate can exploit Iowa State’s road variance to keep this matchup within the number.
The Setup: Iowa State at Oklahoma State
Iowa State’s laying 9.5 in Stillwater, and on paper, this looks like a rematch the Cyclones should control. They already beat Oklahoma State 83-71 at home two weeks ago, and the efficiency gap between these teams isn’t subtle. According to collegebasketballdata.com, Iowa State sits at #4 nationally in adjusted net efficiency with a ridiculous 31.9 rating, while Oklahoma State checks in at #47 with a 13.7 mark. That’s an 18-point chasm in the efficiency world, and yet the market’s asking for less than double digits on the road. The Cyclones are shooting 54.9% from the field—best in the country—and their adjusted offensive efficiency of 126.6 ranks second nationally. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State’s turning it over 14 times per game, ranking 300th in the country in that category. This spread feels light at first glance, but road Big 12 games have a way of tightening up, especially in Gallagher-Iba Arena where the Cowboys tend to make life uncomfortable.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Iowa State at Oklahoma State
Date: January 24, 2026
Time: 3:00 PM ET
Location: Gallagher-Iba Arena, Stillwater, OK
Spread: Iowa State -9.5
Total: 162.5
Moneyline: Iowa State -520, Oklahoma State +390
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market’s giving Oklahoma State nearly 10 points of home-court equity here, and that’s where things get interesting. Iowa State’s adjusted offensive efficiency is 126.6 compared to Oklahoma State’s adjusted defensive efficiency of 102.3—that’s a 24-point edge in expected offensive output per 100 possessions. Flip it around: Oklahoma State’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 116.0 against Iowa State’s adjusted defensive efficiency of 94.7, giving the Cyclones a 21-point defensive advantage. When you factor in tempo—Oklahoma State plays at the fifth-fastest pace nationally at 77.1 possessions per game while Iowa State operates at 71.6—you’re looking at roughly 74 possessions in this game. Run the math on those efficiency numbers, and Iowa State should theoretically win this game by somewhere between 12 and 15 points. So why is the line sitting at 9.5? The market’s banking on two things: home court in a legitimate Big 12 venue and the reality that Iowa State just lost two straight on the road at Cincinnati and Kansas. Road variance in conference play is real, and the Cowboys have enough offensive firepower to keep this competitive if they can limit the turnovers that plagued them earlier this season.
Iowa State Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Let’s start with what makes Iowa State so dangerous: they’re the most efficient shooting team in college basketball. That 54.9% field goal percentage leads the nation, and they’re backing it up with 43.8% from three-point range, ranking third nationally. Their effective field goal percentage of 62.8% is elite, and they’re getting quality looks because they’re taking care of the basketball—just 10.1 turnovers per game, ranking 43rd in the country. Milan Momcilovic is leading the charge at 18.3 points per game, but this is a balanced attack with Joshua Jefferson adding 17.6 and 6.7 boards while dishing 5.4 assists per game. Tamin Lipsey is the engine, averaging 16.8 points and 5.7 assists, ranking 40th nationally in dimes. Defensively, Iowa State’s adjusted defensive efficiency of 94.7 ranks seventh in the country, and they’re forcing 11.1 steals per game, seventh nationally. They’re holding opponents to 64.6 points per game and defending the three-point line reasonably well at 33.0%. This is a complete basketball team with no glaring weaknesses.
Oklahoma State Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Oklahoma State’s got problems, but they’re not without weapons. They’re scoring 91.3 points per game, ranking 15th nationally, and that pace of 77.1 possessions is fifth in the country. When they’re clicking, they can score with anybody. Vyctorius Miller leads at 15.9 points per game, with Anthony Roy and Jaylen Curry both hovering around 15 per night. Curry’s the facilitator with 5.1 assists per game, ranking 71st nationally. The issue? They’re turning it over 14 times per game, dead last in Division I in that category. You can’t give Iowa State—who ranks seventh in steals per game—extra possessions and expect to cover double digits. Their defensive efficiency of 102.3 ranks 69th, which isn’t terrible, but they’re allowing 76.4 points per game, ranking 255th nationally. They defend the three-point line well at 29.3% allowed, ranking 54th, but Iowa State’s going to get clean looks in the halfcourt because the Cyclones don’t beat themselves. Oklahoma State’s offensive rebounding is weak at 28.3%, ranking 285th, which means they’re not getting second chances when they miss.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to one simple question: can Oklahoma State protect the basketball? In their first meeting, the Cowboys lost 83-71 and presumably struggled with Iowa State’s pressure defense. The Cyclones rank seventh in steals per game and 17th in turnover ratio, meaning they’re elite at forcing mistakes without committing them. Oklahoma State’s 14 turnovers per game is a catastrophic number against a team this disciplined. If the Cowboys cough it up 15-plus times, Iowa State’s going to turn those mistakes into transition buckets and easy points in the paint. The pace factor matters here too. Oklahoma State wants to push tempo—they’re fifth nationally in pace—but Iowa State’s comfortable playing faster or slower. The Cyclones rank 20th in offensive rating at 131.9, meaning they’re scoring efficiently regardless of tempo. Oklahoma State’s defensive rating of 99.3 ranks 82nd, which is respectable but not good enough to slow down the nation’s best shooting team. The other factor is free throws. Iowa State shoots just 69.4% from the stripe, ranking 246th nationally, while Oklahoma State’s at 75.0%, ranking 77th. If this game gets tight, Oklahoma State’s got an edge at the line, but they’ve got to keep it close first.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m riding with Iowa State -9.5. Yeah, I know the road splits are ugly—they just lost at Cincinnati and Kansas—but this Oklahoma State team is fundamentally flawed. You can’t turn it over 14 times per game and expect to hang with the fourth-best team in adjusted net efficiency. Iowa State’s got a 24-point edge in offensive efficiency and a 21-point edge in defensive efficiency when you match up the adjusted numbers. That’s a 15-point spread in a neutral environment, and I’m not giving Oklahoma State 5.5 points of home-court value when they’re this careless with the basketball. The Cyclones already beat them by 12 at home, and I expect a similar margin here. Oklahoma State will push pace and make some runs, but Iowa State’s too disciplined, too efficient, and too balanced. Lay the points and don’t overthink it. Iowa State -9.5.
