No. 5 Duke enters this rivalry clash as a massive favorite, but my ATS pick (taking the +17.5) leans on Wake Forest’s ability to score even against the nation’s elite. While Duke’s #3-ranked defense is legendary, the Demon Deacons have enough perimeter firepower in Juke Harris and Nate Calmese to keep this within the three-possession window.
The Setup: Wake Forest at Duke
Duke’s laying 17.5 at Cameron Indoor against Wake Forest, and honestly, this number feels almost too clean. The Blue Devils are 10-0, riding a defensive machine that’s suffocating opponents to just 59.6 points per game—that’s 4th nationally. Wake Forest comes in at 7-3, but those three losses tell a story: they’ve dropped three of their last five, including a 12-point home loss to SMU. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, the gap here is massive. Duke’s adjusted net rating sits at 33.0, good for 3rd in the country. Wake Forest? They’re at 13.4, ranked 50th. That’s a 19.6-point chasm in adjusted efficiency, and the market’s asking us to lay 17.5. This isn’t about Duke being undefeated—it’s about a top-three team in America hosting a solid but clearly overmatched opponent at Cameron Indoor. The question isn’t whether Duke wins. It’s whether they can step on Wake’s throat for 40 minutes.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Wake Forest (7-3) @ Duke (10-0)
Date: January 24, 2026
Time: 12:00 PM ET
Venue: Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC
Spread: Duke -17.5
Total: 150.5
Moneyline: Duke -6500, Wake Forest +2000
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s break down why the market landed here. Duke’s adjusted offensive efficiency ranks 8th nationally at 123.7, paired with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 90.7—that’s 3rd in the country. Wake Forest checks in at 87th offensively (113.3) and 41st defensively (100.0). The math is straightforward: Duke holds a 10.4-point advantage on offense and a 9.3-point edge on defense in adjusted metrics. That’s roughly 20 points of separation, and the spread sits at 17.5.
Here’s where it gets interesting. Duke plays at a pace of 69.2 possessions per game, ranked 157th nationally. Wake Forest pushes it slightly faster at 71.9, ranked 71st. Neither team is racing up and down the floor, which means fewer possessions for Duke to impose their will. The total of 150.5 reflects this—it’s expecting roughly 75 points per team in a game that’ll hover around 70 possessions. Duke’s offensive rating of 125.4 suggests they should score in the mid-80s. Wake’s defensive rating of 97.6 (54th nationally) says they’re capable of slowing teams down, but they haven’t faced anything like Duke’s offensive efficiency this season.
The spread makes sense if you believe Duke’s defense—which holds opponents to 34.1% shooting from the field, ranked 1st nationally—can completely neutralize Wake’s offense. Wake scores 84.2 per game, but that’s against a schedule that hasn’t featured a top-three defensive unit. This number is asking Duke to win by 18, and frankly, the efficiency gap supports it.
Wake Forest Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Wake Forest isn’t without weapons. Juke Harris is a legitimate scorer, averaging 20.7 points per game—that’s 22nd in the nation. He’s the engine here, and when he’s rolling, Wake can put up points in bunches. Nate Calmese runs the show with 5.9 assists per game, ranked 28th nationally, and the Demon Deacons move the ball well enough with 16.3 assists per game.
The problem? Wake’s shooting efficiency is mediocre. They’re 179th in field goal percentage at 45.4% and 178th in three-point shooting at 33.6%. Their effective field goal percentage of 52.5% ranks 154th. Those are average numbers at best, and they’re walking into a buzzsaw. Duke allows just 34.1% from the field and 26.7% from three—15th best in the country from deep.
Wake’s defense has been solid, ranking 41st in adjusted defensive efficiency. They force turnovers with 9.7 steals per game (33rd nationally) and defend the three-point line well, holding opponents to 28.3% (37th). But their defensive rating of 97.6 is about to get stress-tested by an offense that ranks 8th in adjusted efficiency. Wake’s offensive rebound rate of 35.9% (35th nationally) could give them second chances, but Duke’s size and discipline should neutralize that advantage.
Duke Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Duke is a machine. Cameron Boozer is a monster, averaging 23.0 points and 9.9 boards per game—that’s 3rd in the nation in scoring and 21st in rebounding. He’s a matchup nightmare, and Wake doesn’t have the size to consistently slow him down. Duke’s offensive efficiency is elite, ranking 8th in adjusted offensive efficiency at 123.7, and they shoot 50.0% from the field (35th nationally) with an effective field goal percentage of 58.4% (25th).
The defense is what separates Duke from everyone else. They’re 3rd in adjusted defensive efficiency at 90.7, and they hold opponents to a defensive rating of 86.1—also 3rd nationally. They don’t force a ton of turnovers (7.2 steals per game, 188th), but they don’t need to. They lock you down in the halfcourt, contest every shot, and make you earn everything. Opponents shoot 34.1% against Duke—1st in the nation—and just 26.7% from three.
Duke’s only potential weakness? Free throw shooting. They’re 199th nationally at 71.0%, and in a game where they’re laying 17.5, missed free throws late could be the difference between a cover and a sweat. But this team is too good, too disciplined, and too talented to let Wake hang around. They’ve won by double digits in nine of their ten games this season, and the one exception was a four-point win over SMU—a team that just beat Wake by 12.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game hinges on Duke’s ability to neutralize Juke Harris and force Wake into contested jumpers. Harris is going to get his—he’s too talented not to—but if Duke can hold him to 15-18 points on inefficient shooting, Wake’s offense stalls. Tre’Von Spillers and Myles Colvin are solid secondary options, but neither has the firepower to carry Wake if Harris struggles.
On the other end, Cameron Boozer is going to dominate the paint. Wake ranks 179th in rebounds per game at 37.0, and Boozer’s going to feast on the glass. Duke’s offensive rating of 125.4 suggests they’ll score in the mid-80s, and Wake’s defense—solid as it is—hasn’t faced an offense this efficient. Duke’s true shooting percentage of 61.8% (23rd nationally) means they’re converting at an elite level, and Wake’s going to have to be perfect defensively to keep this close.
Pace matters here. Duke plays slower (69.2 possessions per game), and they’ll want to grind this into a halfcourt battle. Wake’s faster tempo (71.9) could create a few extra possessions, but not enough to overcome the efficiency gap. The total of 150.5 feels about right—expect a game in the mid-70s possession range, with Duke controlling the tempo and Wake struggling to find consistent offense.
The head-to-head history is brutal for Wake. Duke won by 33 last year at Cameron Indoor and by seven on the road. Wake’s lone win in this series came in 2024, and that Duke team was nowhere near as good as this one. This is a mismatch, plain and simple.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the 17.5 with Duke. The efficiency gap is too large, the venue is too hostile, and Wake’s recent form is too shaky. Duke’s defense is elite—1st in opponent field goal percentage, 3rd in adjusted defensive efficiency—and Wake’s offense is average at best. Juke Harris will get his, but Duke’s going to make everyone else beat them, and I don’t see it happening.
Duke’s won nine of ten games by double digits, and the one close game was against a team that just blew out Wake. Cameron Indoor is a nightmare for road teams, and this is a noon tip—Wake’s going to come out flat, and Duke’s going to punch them in the mouth early. I’m projecting Duke to win by 22-24, and I’ll gladly lay the 17.5. This is a statement game for Duke, and they’re going to make it loud. Duke -17.5 is the play.
