It’s a battle of high-scoring playmakers as CJ Brown leads South Florida against FAU’s Devin Vanterpool. Handicapper Bash evaluates the backcourt matchups to deliver his prediction and best total pick for today’s 1:00 PM tipoff.
The Setup: Florida Atlantic at South Florida
South Florida’s laying 4.5 to 5 points at home against Florida Atlantic in an American Athletic Conference showdown, and the market’s telling us something important here. The Bulls are riding a solid stretch, FAU’s won five straight, and we’ve got two teams trending in opposite directions when you look under the hood. Here’s what matters: South Florida checks in at 14.1 in adjusted net efficiency (#46 nationally) while Florida Atlantic sits at 5.4 (#112), according to collegebasketballdata.com. That’s an 8.7-point gap in adjusted efficiency, and when you factor in home court advantage worth roughly 3.5 points, this line makes perfect sense. The Bulls play faster, score more efficiently, and defend considerably better when you adjust for competition. This isn’t a coin flip dressed up as a small spread—it’s the market accurately pricing a legitimate talent gap.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Florida Atlantic (6-3) @ South Florida (5-4)
Date: January 25, 2026
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Yuengling Center, Tampa, FL
Betting Lines:
Spread: South Florida -4.5 (DraftKings) / -5 (Bovada)
Total: 166.5 (DraftKings) / 166 (Bovada)
Moneyline: South Florida -210 / Florida Atlantic +175
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s break down why we’re looking at a five-point spread instead of something tighter or wider. South Florida’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 116.0 (#54 nationally) compared to FAU’s 114.0 (#75)—fairly close on that end. But the defensive gap? That’s where this line gets built. The Bulls check in at 101.8 in adjusted defensive efficiency (#60) while the Owls are bleeding points at 108.7 (#201). That’s a massive difference when you’re talking about adjusted metrics that account for opponent quality.
The pace factor matters here too. FAU crawls at 65.2 possessions per game (#290 nationally), while South Florida pushes slightly faster at 67.1 (#235). Neither team is running like crazy, but the Bulls want more possessions than the Owls prefer to play. When a better team controls tempo, that spread tends to hold. The total sitting at 166-166.5 reflects two things: FAU’s methodical pace working against South Florida’s elite offensive rating of 127.4 (#32). The market expects the Owls to slow this down, but the Bulls to score efficiently when they have the ball. That’s sharp line-setting.
Florida Atlantic Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Owls have won five straight, and their offensive rebounding prowess deserves attention. They rank 18th nationally in offensive rebound percentage at 36.8%, which generates second-chance points and extends possessions in their slow-paced system. Devin Vanterpool leads the way at 17.0 points and 7.6 rebounds per game, while Kanaan Carlyle adds 15.6 points. That’s a solid one-two punch.
But here’s the problem: FAU’s defense is getting torched from beyond the arc. Opponents are shooting 39.9% from three-point range (#358 nationally)—that’s borderline catastrophic. They rank 261st in opponent field goal percentage at 45.2%, and their defensive rating of 106.9 (#197) looks respectable until you adjust for competition. The adjusted defensive efficiency at 108.7 (#201) tells us they’re not stopping anybody against quality opponents. Their elite shot-blocking (6.0 per game, #9 nationally) helps in the paint, but when teams spread them out, the Owls are vulnerable.
South Florida Breakdown: The Counterpoint
The Bulls are scoring 89.4 points per game (#22 nationally), and their offensive rating of 127.4 (#32) isn’t a mirage—they can flat-out score. CJ Brown runs the show with 5.2 assists per game (#64 nationally), and the Bulls rank 78th in assists per game at 16.4. They’ve got five players averaging double figures, led by Josh Omojafo at 14.7 points. That’s balanced scoring that’s tough to defend.
The concern? South Florida gives up 80.1 points per game (#317), and their defensive rating of 115.2 (#313) looks ugly in raw numbers. But the adjusted defensive efficiency at 101.8 (#60) tells a different story—they defend much better than the raw numbers suggest. They force turnovers (10.0 steals per game, #24 nationally), crash the glass (40.8 rebounds per game, #53), and create transition opportunities with 197 points off turnovers. The Bulls are aggressive, active, and athletic on defense. They’re not lockdown, but they’re disruptive enough to bother FAU’s methodical offense.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to two critical factors: perimeter defense and tempo control. FAU wants to grind this into the low 60s in possessions, pound the offensive glass, and protect the paint with their shot-blocking. South Florida wants to push pace, force turnovers with pressure defense, and exploit FAU’s horrific three-point defense.
Here’s what tilts this toward the Bulls: FAU’s 39.9% opponent three-point shooting is a glaring weakness against a South Florida team that attempts plenty of threes and has multiple capable shooters. The Owls can’t afford to let the Bulls get comfortable from deep, but their perimeter defense suggests they will. South Florida’s 10.0 steals per game also creates problems for an FAU team that ranks 279th in assists per game—the Owls aren’t elite ball-handlers, and pressure could force them into rushed possessions.
The offensive rebounding battle matters too. Both teams rank in the top 22 nationally in offensive rebound percentage (FAU 18th, USF 22nd), so second-chance points will be available. But South Florida’s overall rebounding edge (40.8 per game vs. 37.4) gives them the advantage on the glass. When you combine better rebounding with superior adjusted efficiency on both ends, the Bulls have multiple paths to covering this number.
Bash’s Best Bet
South Florida -5
I’m laying the points with the Bulls at home. The adjusted efficiency gap is too significant to ignore, and FAU’s perimeter defense is a liability that South Florida can exploit. The Owls have won five straight, but look at that schedule—they’re not beating elite competition. South Florida’s adjusted net efficiency of 14.1 (#46) compared to FAU’s 5.4 (#112) represents real talent separation, not schedule fluff.
The Bulls defend better than their raw numbers suggest, they control the glass, and they force turnovers at an elite rate. FAU’s slow pace might keep this from becoming a blowout, but five points is the right number. South Florida wins this game by 7-9 points. Take the Bulls and don’t overthink it.
