The Thunder host the Raptors as double-digit favorites in a clash of contrasting efficiency profiles. Bash breaks down the 11.5-point point spread and examines how Oklahoma City’s league-best defense impacts his top ATS pick.
The Setup: Raptors at Thunder
The Thunder are laying 11.5 points at home against a Raptors squad that just knocked off Portland but remains without Jakob Poeltl and Chucky Hepburn. Oklahoma City sits at 37-9 overall and a ridiculous 20-3 at Paycom Center, while Toronto checks in at 28-19 with a solid 15-9 road record. This number feels steep until you realize the Thunder rank first in the Western Conference for a reason—Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 32.3 points per game, and this defense suffocates opponents even without Isaiah Hartenstein. The Raptors have shown grit on this West Coast trip, but the efficiency gap between these rosters is massive. When you factor in Toronto’s frontcourt depth issues and OKC’s ability to control pace and possessions, this line starts making perfect sense.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Toronto Raptors (28-19) at Oklahoma City Thunder (37-9)
Date: Sunday, January 25, 2026
Time: 7:00 ET
Location: Paycom Center
TV: FanDuel SN OK (Home), NBA League Pass, TSN (Away)
Spread: Thunder -11.5 (-110) | Raptors +11.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Thunder -588 | Raptors +405
Total: 225.0 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on 11.5 because Oklahoma City represents everything Toronto isn’t right now—elite defensively, deep in rotations, and ruthlessly efficient on both ends. The Thunder’s 20-3 home record isn’t a fluke. They control tempo, force opponents into contested looks, and punish mistakes in transition. Gilgeous-Alexander is the engine, averaging 32.3 points with 6.2 assists, while Jalen Williams (16.8 PPG) and Chet Holmgren (18.0 PPG, 8.5 RPG) provide secondary creation and rim protection. The Raptors counter with Brandon Ingram’s 21.7 points and Scottie Barnes chipping in 19.7, but they’re missing Poeltl’s interior presence and Hepburn’s playmaking. That’s a problem when you’re facing a team that thrives on defensive disruption. The moneyline at -588 tells you the market expects OKC to win comfortably. The question is whether Toronto’s perimeter talent can keep this within striking distance or if the Thunder’s home dominance blows this open.
Raptors Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Toronto just beat Portland 110-98 behind 22 from Sandro Mamukelashvili and 20 from Ingram, but that performance came against a Blazers squad that doesn’t match OKC’s defensive intensity. The Raptors are 15-9 on the road, which shows they can compete away from home, but their frontcourt depth is compromised. Poeltl has been out since December 21 with a lower back strain and isn’t traveling with the team, which means Toronto lacks a true rim protector against Holmgren and the Thunder’s interior attack. Hepburn’s absence removes a playmaker averaging 12.8 points and 9.2 assists across 11 appearances, plus 2.4 steals defensively. That’s a significant loss when you need ball movement and perimeter defense against Gilgeous-Alexander. RJ Barrett adds 19.2 points per game, giving Toronto three legitimate scorers, but without Poeltl anchoring the paint, they’ll struggle to contain OKC’s transition opportunities and second-chance points.
Thunder Breakdown: The Other Side
Oklahoma City’s 37-9 record is built on suffocating defense and efficient halfcourt execution. Gilgeous-Alexander is a legitimate MVP candidate, and his ability to create shots in isolation while facilitating for others makes this offense nearly impossible to slow down. Holmgren provides spacing and rim protection, averaging 18.0 points and 8.5 rebounds, while Williams operates as a secondary playmaker with 16.8 points and 5.6 assists. The Thunder are missing Hartenstein, who’s been out 15 consecutive games with a right calf strain, but Jaylin Williams and Kenrich Williams have absorbed those minutes without major drop-off. The 20-3 home record reflects OKC’s ability to dictate pace at Paycom Center, where they force opponents into uncomfortable possessions and capitalize on turnovers. Against a Raptors team missing key rotation pieces, the Thunder should control tempo from the opening tip and build a lead through defensive stops and transition scoring.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game hinges on Toronto’s ability to withstand OKC’s defensive pressure without Poeltl or Hepburn. The Thunder will attack the Raptors’ depleted frontcourt relentlessly, using Holmgren’s length and mobility to create mismatches inside. Toronto’s perimeter trio of Ingram, Barnes, and Barrett can score, but they’ll need to operate in isolation more often without Hepburn’s playmaking. That plays directly into Oklahoma City’s hands—they thrive when opponents dribble into contested looks rather than moving the ball. The pace will favor OKC as well. The Thunder control possessions defensively, which limits Toronto’s transition opportunities and forces them into halfcourt sets where Poeltl’s absence becomes glaring. Over a 48-minute game, that efficiency gap compounds. If the Thunder shoot even their season averages and force Toronto into tough twos, this spread covers comfortably. The Raptors need near-perfect shooting from their top three scorers and multiple defensive stops in transition to stay within 11.5. That’s a tall order against the top team in the West on their home floor.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Thunder laying 11.5 at home against a depleted Raptors squad is the right side. Toronto’s 15-9 road record shows they can compete, but losing Poeltl and Hepburn removes the interior defense and playmaking needed to hang with Oklahoma City’s efficiency. The Thunder’s 20-3 home mark isn’t about blowing teams out every night—it’s about controlling pace, forcing turnovers, and capitalizing on opponent mistakes. Gilgeous-Alexander will exploit Toronto’s perimeter defense, Holmgren will dominate the paint without Poeltl, and the supporting cast will punish every defensive breakdown. The Raptors might keep this close through three quarters, but the fourth-quarter execution gap between a 37-9 team and a 28-19 squad missing key pieces is real. The main risk is Toronto shooting lights-out from three and staying within range late, but even then, OKC’s defensive discipline should close this out comfortably.
BASH’S BEST BET: Thunder -11.5 for 2 units.
