After a 31-point masterclass from De’Aaron Fox, the Spurs look to extend their winning streak against the 11-36 Pelicans. Handicapper Bash evaluates the 239.5 total and delivers his best bet for this high-octane matchup.
The Setup: Pelicans at Spurs
San Antonio is laying 12 points at home against a Pelicans squad that’s limping into the Frost Bank Center with an 11-36 record and no Dejounte Murray for the foreseeable future. New Orleans just pulled off a comeback win in Memphis behind Saddiq Bey’s 36-point explosion, but that was against a Grizzlies team that let a double-digit lead evaporate down the stretch. The Spurs present a completely different challenge. Victor Wembanyama is anchoring the second-best team in the Western Conference at 31-14, and San Antonio just dismantled Utah with De’Aaron Fox and Wemby combining for 57 points on elite efficiency. The spread sits at 12, and once you factor in the talent disparity and New Orleans’ inability to defend at even a league-average level, that number starts to make perfect sense.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 25, 2026, 7:00 ET
Location: Frost Bank Center
TV: Home: FanDuel SN SW | Away: GCSEN, Pelicans.com, NBA League Pass
Current Odds (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Pelicans +12.0 (-110) | Spurs -12.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: Pelicans +452 | Spurs -667
- Total: 239.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on 12 because the gap between these rosters is massive right now. San Antonio sits at 31-14 with a 16-5 home record, while New Orleans is 11-36 overall and just 4-17 on the road. That’s a 20-game swing in the win column, and it’s reflected in how these teams operate possession-to-possession. Wembanyama is averaging 24.5 points and 10.9 rebounds while protecting the rim at an elite level. Fox adds 20.5 points and 5.9 assists, and Stephon Castle contributes 16.9 points and 7.1 assists to give the Spurs multiple ball-handlers who can execute in the halfcourt.
New Orleans counters with Trey Murphy III at 22.3 points per game and Zion Williamson at 22.0 points, but the supporting cast falls off dramatically after that. Saddiq Bey’s recent 36-point outburst in Memphis was impressive, but he’s averaging 15.7 points on the season, and that performance was an outlier. More importantly, the Pelicans are missing Dejounte Murray for the remainder of the season as he continues rehabbing from torn right Achilles surgery. That leaves rookie Jeremiah Fears running the point, and while he’s getting minutes, the drop-off in playmaking and defensive pressure is significant. Jose Alvarado is questionable with a left oblique strain after missing nine straight games, so even if he returns, his workload will be monitored.
The total sits at 239.5, which suggests the market expects both teams to push tempo and generate scoring opportunities. That makes sense given the Pelicans’ inability to defend consistently and San Antonio’s offensive firepower when Wembanyama and Fox are clicking.
Pelicans Breakdown: What You Need to Know
New Orleans showed fight in Memphis, erasing a double-digit deficit behind Bey’s fourth-quarter explosion and Murphy’s 32 points. But that game also exposed how reliant the Pelicans are on individual shot-making when the offense stalls. Without Murray orchestrating the halfcourt attack, New Orleans is leaning heavily on Zion and Murphy to create their own looks, and that’s not a sustainable formula against elite defenses.
Zion finished with 24 points against Memphis, but his efficiency fluctuates depending on how much defensive attention he faces. Against a Spurs team that can throw Wembanyama’s length and rim protection at him, Zion’s ability to finish at the basket becomes more difficult. Murphy provides spacing with his perimeter shooting, but he’s averaging just 3.6 assists, which means he’s not setting up teammates at a high rate. Bey’s 19 fourth-quarter points in Memphis were crucial, but expecting that kind of output consistently is unrealistic given his season-long averages.
Defensively, the Pelicans are getting torched. Their 4-17 road record tells you everything about how they perform away from home, and facing a Spurs offense that features multiple scoring threats makes this a nightmare matchup. If Alvarado returns, he adds some backcourt pressure, but coming off a nine-game absence, his conditioning and minutes will be limited.
Spurs Breakdown: The Other Side
San Antonio is rolling right now, and the addition of De’Aaron Fox has given them a dynamic playmaker who can attack downhill and collapse defenses. Fox went for 31 points on 10-of-13 shooting with six threes against Utah, and that efficiency is what makes the Spurs so dangerous. When Fox is getting to the rim and kicking out to shooters, it opens up everything for Wembanyama in the post and on the perimeter.
Wembanyama continues to dominate both ends, posting 26 points, 13 rebounds, and five blocks against the Jazz. His ability to protect the rim while also spacing the floor with his shooting makes him nearly impossible to game-plan against. Castle’s playmaking at 7.1 assists per game gives the Spurs a third ball-handler who can run pick-and-roll and create advantages in transition.
The Spurs’ 16-5 home record is built on their ability to control tempo and execute in the halfcourt. Luke Kornet is questionable with left adductor tightness, but his absence doesn’t significantly impact the rotation since Kelly Olynyk can absorb those backup center minutes behind Wembanyama. The depth behind their core three is solid enough to maintain leads and close out games against inferior competition.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether New Orleans can generate enough offense to stay within striking distance, and the answer is probably not. The Pelicans are averaging 22.3 points from Murphy and 22.0 from Zion, but after that, the scoring drops off to Bey’s 15.7. That’s three guys who need to be near-perfect for New Orleans to cover 12 points on the road against the second-best team in the West.
San Antonio counters with Wembanyama’s 24.5 points, Fox’s 20.5, and Castle’s 16.9, which gives them three reliable scorers who can all create their own shots. More importantly, the Spurs can rotate defensively and protect the rim with Wembanyama’s length and shot-blocking. New Orleans will struggle to finish at the basket, and if they’re forced into contested jumpers, the efficiency gap widens even further.
The pace will favor San Antonio because they can push in transition off defensive stops while also executing in the halfcourt when the game slows down. New Orleans doesn’t have the defensive personnel to get multiple stops in a row, which means the Spurs will control possessions and dictate tempo. Over the course of 90-plus possessions, that efficiency advantage compounds into a double-digit margin.
The total at 239.5 assumes both teams will score, but I’m more interested in how San Antonio’s defense limits New Orleans’ second-chance opportunities and transition buckets. If the Spurs force the Pelicans into halfcourt sets, the offensive execution breaks down quickly without Murray running the show.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m laying the 12 with San Antonio at home. The Pelicans showed resilience in Memphis, but that was against a team that couldn’t close. The Spurs are a completely different animal, especially at the Frost Bank Center where they’re 16-5. Wembanyama and Fox give them two elite two-way players who can dominate both ends, and New Orleans simply doesn’t have the depth or defensive discipline to hang for four quarters.
The main risk is New Orleans catching fire from three and keeping it close into the fourth quarter, but even then, San Antonio has the superior closing lineup and execution. The Pelicans’ 4-17 road record tells you they struggle to win away from home, and asking them to cover 12 against a legitimate Western Conference contender is a tall order. The spread reflects the talent gap, and I trust the Spurs to pull away in the second half once their depth and efficiency take over.
BASH’S BEST BET: Spurs -12.0 for 2 units.
San Antonio handles business at home and covers comfortably.
