The New Orleans Pelicans are 2.5-point home favorites on Friday night against a Memphis Grizzlies team looking to regain its identity. After a disappointing road loss to the Hornets, Memphis enters the Smoothie King Center facing a Pelicans squad that is equally desperate for a signature home win.
- The Best Bet: Pelicans -2.5. New Orleans has covered the spread in 15 of 26 home opportunities this season (57.7%) and recently beat Memphis 133-127 just one week ago.
- Paint Dominance: Zion Williamson leads the Pelicans with 22.0 PPG and 6.2 RPG. With Memphis missing Zach Edey and Brandon Clarke, the Grizzlies lack the interior size to stop Zion’s downhill attacks.
- Injury Crises: Both teams are heavily depleted. Memphis is without Ja Morant (elbow), Santi Aldama (knee), and Zach Edey (ankle), while New Orleans remains without Dejounte Murray (Achilles).
- The Total (234.5): New Orleans has hit the Over in 57.7% of home games this season. With both teams ranking in the top 10 for pace recently, expect plenty of possessions.
The Setup: Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans are laying 2.5 points at home against a Grizzlies squad that just got boat-raced by Charlotte—a team that had won only 19 games all of last season. Memphis dropped that one 112-97, looking lifeless on both ends while Brandon Miller and Moussa Diabate carved them up. Now they travel to New Orleans on Friday night to face a Pelicans team that’s somehow in worse shape record-wise at 12-37, fresh off a loss to Oklahoma City where they managed just 95 points against the league’s best defense. This line sits at 2.5 because the market sees two depleted rosters with minimal separation, but the Grizzlies’ road struggles and New Orleans’ home-court advantage—even a diminished one—tilt this spread toward the home side. The question isn’t about star power or playoff positioning. It’s about which shorthanded rotation can execute basic offensive efficiency for 48 minutes.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 30, 2026, 7:30 ET
Venue: Smoothie King Center
TV Network: FanDuel SN SE, GCSEN, Pelicans.com
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: New Orleans Pelicans -2.5 (-110) | Memphis Grizzlies +2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Pelicans -135 | Grizzlies +110
- Total: 234.5 (Over -110 | Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on Pelicans -2.5 because New Orleans holds a modest home-court edge over a Memphis team that’s been mediocre everywhere this season. The Grizzlies sit at 18-27 overall with an 8-12 road record, while the Pelicans are 12-37 but manage a 7-19 mark at home. That’s not impressive, but it’s better than their 5-18 road split, and home court matters when both teams are this inconsistent. Memphis is dealing with significant absences—Brandon Clarke and Zach Edey remain out long-term, stripping depth from the frontcourt. Ty Jerome is doubtful for his season debut, further limiting backcourt options. New Orleans counters with their own injury crisis: Dejounte Murray remains out following Achilles surgery with no clear return timeline.
The total at 234.5 reflects two offenses operating below full capacity. Ja Morant averages 19.5 points and 8.1 assists, while Jaren Jackson Jr. chips in 19.0 points per game, but Memphis just scored 97 against Charlotte’s defense. New Orleans counters with Zion Williamson at 22.0 points per game and Trey Murphy III at 21.9, but they managed only 95 against Oklahoma City’s elite defense. The market expects both teams to push pace and generate possessions, but efficiency remains the concern. This line exists because neither team inspires confidence in consistent scoring, yet the talent on both rosters suggests enough offensive firepower to approach 115 possessions combined.
Memphis Grizzlies Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Memphis enters this matchup with Morant and Jackson Jr. carrying the offensive load, but the supporting cast has thinned considerably. Cedric Coward provides 14.0 points and 6.3 rebounds per game, offering some secondary scoring, but the Grizzlies lack the frontcourt depth they relied on earlier in the season. Clarke’s absence eliminates a defensive anchor and lob threat, while Edey’s extended shutdown removes interior size and rebounding. That forces Memphis to play smaller, faster lineups that can push pace but struggle to protect the rim consistently.
The Grizzlies’ 8-12 road record tells the story of a team that can’t sustain efficiency away from home. Morant’s playmaking keeps possessions moving, and Jackson’s versatility creates mismatches, but Memphis lacks the defensive consistency to slow opponents when shots aren’t falling. Against Charlotte, they allowed 112 points to a team that had won four straight but entered the season with 19 total wins. That defensive breakdown underscores the core issue: Memphis can’t compensate for offensive droughts with stops. On the road against a Pelicans team desperate for home wins, that’s a problem.
New Orleans Pelicans Breakdown: The Other Side
New Orleans counters with Williamson and Murphy III forming a potent one-two punch, supplemented by Saddiq Bey’s 15.9 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. The Pelicans’ 12-37 record obscures their ability to generate offense when healthy—Williamson’s paint dominance and Murphy’s perimeter shooting create spacing and driving lanes. The problem surfaces when opponents apply defensive pressure or force New Orleans into halfcourt sets. Against Oklahoma City, the Pelicans managed just 95 points against a defense designed to limit transition and force contested jumpers.
Murray’s absence removes the primary ball-handler and playmaker, shifting responsibility to rookie Jeremiah Fears. That’s a significant downgrade in decision-making and pace control, but it also simplifies New Orleans’ offensive identity: get Williamson downhill and let Murphy space the floor. The Pelicans’ 7-19 home record reflects inconsistency, but they’ve shown flashes of competent execution at Smoothie King Center. Against a Memphis defense that just allowed Charlotte to shoot efficiently, New Orleans has the personnel to exploit mismatches and generate quality looks near the rim.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game hinges on offensive efficiency in the paint versus perimeter execution. Memphis lacks the interior presence to challenge Williamson consistently, especially with Clarke and Edey unavailable. That forces Jackson Jr. into primary rim-protection duties, pulling him away from his natural role as a versatile defender who can switch across positions. Williamson averaged 22.0 points per game this season by attacking smaller defenders and finishing through contact—exactly the matchup Memphis presents without frontcourt depth.
Conversely, New Orleans must contain Morant’s penetration and limit Jackson’s mid-range efficiency. Morant’s 8.1 assists per game reflect his ability to collapse defenses and create open looks, but the Pelicans can load up on him without Murray orchestrating the offense. That shifts pressure to Memphis’ secondary creators like Coward, who averages 2.9 assists but isn’t a natural facilitator. If New Orleans forces Memphis into contested jumpers and limits transition opportunities, the Grizzlies’ road inefficiency becomes the deciding factor.
The total at 234.5 assumes both teams approach 115 combined possessions with moderate efficiency. Memphis pushes pace when Morant controls tempo, but New Orleans prefers halfcourt execution with Williamson as the focal point. That creates a pace mismatch where Memphis wants to run and New Orleans wants to grind. The team that dictates tempo controls the scoring environment—and at home, New Orleans holds the advantage in slowing the game and forcing Memphis into uncomfortable halfcourt sets.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Pelicans at -2.5 offer value because Memphis can’t defend consistently on the road, and New Orleans possesses the interior advantage to exploit that weakness. Williamson’s paint dominance against a depleted Memphis frontcourt creates high-percentage looks, while Murphy’s perimeter shooting spaces the floor and prevents help defense from collapsing. The Grizzlies just allowed 112 points to Charlotte and lost by 15—that’s not a team positioned to cover on the road against a desperate Pelicans squad fighting for relevance at home.
The main risk surfaces if Morant catches fire and pushes pace beyond New Orleans’ comfort zone, turning this into a track meet where Memphis’ transition offense overwhelms the Pelicans’ defense. But New Orleans’ home splits and Memphis’ road struggles suggest the Pelicans control tempo and grind out a modest win. This isn’t about dominance—it’s about New Orleans executing basic offensive principles against a defense that can’t protect the rim without Clarke or Edey.
BASH’S BEST BET: New Orleans Pelicans -2.5 for 2 units.
The Pelicans cover because they dictate pace at home and exploit Memphis’ frontcourt deficiencies. Williamson gets his points in the paint, Murphy spaces the floor, and New Orleans wins by 5-7 in a game that stays under the total. Memphis keeps it close through three quarters, but the fourth quarter exposes their lack of depth and defensive consistency on the road. Pelicans 118, Grizzlies 111.
