Anthony Edwards is playing at an MVP level, averaging nearly 30 a night, while Memphis is fighting to stop a five-game losing streak. We look at the Saturday night best bet as Ja Morant attempts to defend home court against the surging Wolves.
The Setup: Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies
The Timberwolves lay 7.5 points on the road at FedExForum Saturday night, and the spread tells you everything about where these teams stand right now. Minnesota sits at 30-19 with Anthony Edwards averaging 29.3 points per game and Julius Randle adding 22.2. Memphis checks in at 18-28, dealing with significant injury issues and struggling to find consistency at home where they’re just 9-14. The Wolves just hung 22 threes on Oklahoma City in a 123-111 win behind Edwards’ 26 and Jaden McDaniels’ perfect 5-for-5 from deep. Memphis comes off a 114-106 loss in New Orleans where they couldn’t slow down Zion Williamson and company. This line exists because Minnesota has the firepower and the Grizzlies are missing key pieces, but seven and a half on the road demands we examine whether the Wolves can maintain efficiency in a tough building against a team that still has Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. running the show.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 31, 2026, 8:00 ET
Location: FedExForum
Watch: FanDuel SN SE (Home), FanDuel SN North (Away), NBA League Pass
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Minnesota Timberwolves -7.5 (-110)
- Spread: Memphis Grizzlies +7.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Timberwolves -303 | Grizzlies +234
- Total: 229.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
Seven and a half points on the road reflects a significant talent and depth gap right now. Minnesota’s 30-19 record includes a solid 13-11 road mark, which matters when you’re getting this many points away from home. The Wolves have Edwards putting up 29.3 per night with Randle’s 22.2 and McDaniels’ 14.8 creating a three-headed scoring attack that can overwhelm defenses. Memphis counters with Morant at 19.5 points and 8.1 assists plus Jackson at 19.0 points, but the Grizzlies are missing Brandon Clarke and Zach Edey long-term, which guts their frontcourt depth. Ty Jerome is doubtful, which further limits their backcourt rotation options.
The 229.5 total accounts for Minnesota’s recent shooting explosion—22 threes against Oklahoma City signals the kind of variance that can push games over when the Wolves get hot. But Memphis at home has struggled to generate consistent offense, sitting at 18-28 overall with a 9-14 home record that suggests they’re not defending their building effectively. The market is pricing in Minnesota’s offensive firepower against a Grizzlies squad that lacks the depth to match possessions when the game speeds up. That moneyline at -303 tells you the Wolves are heavy favorites straight up, which means the spread is about whether they can win by double digits in a road spot.
Minnesota Timberwolves Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Edwards is the engine, averaging 29.3 points with 5.2 boards and 3.7 assists, and he just dropped 26 on Oklahoma City while his team drained 22 threes. That kind of perimeter shooting creates math problems for opponents—when McDaniels goes 5-for-5 from deep and adds 21 points, suddenly you’re dealing with multiple weapons who can torch you from distance. Randle’s 22.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 5.3 assists give them a versatile forward who can score inside and facilitate, which matters against Memphis’ thin frontcourt.
The Wolves are 13-11 on the road, which means they’re competent away from home but not dominant. Terrence Shannon Jr. remains out with a left foot strain, which removes a rotation piece but doesn’t crater their core. The recent win over Oklahoma City showed they can maintain offensive efficiency even when facing quality competition. The question is whether they can sustain that three-point shooting variance or if they’ll need to grind this one out in the halfcourt against a Grizzlies team that still has defensive talent in Jackson.
Memphis Grizzlies Breakdown: The Other Side
Morant’s 19.5 points and 8.1 assists anchor the offense, but those numbers are down from his peak production, and the Grizzlies are 18-28 because they lack the surrounding pieces to compete consistently. Jackson’s 19.0 points and 5.8 rebounds give them a two-way presence, and Santi Aldama chips in 14.0 points and 6.7 boards, but the depth chart falls off quickly after that. Brandon Clarke is out with a calf injury, and Zach Edey won’t return until at least early March with an ankle issue, which leaves them dangerously thin up front.
That 9-14 home record is the red flag. Memphis isn’t defending FedExForum, and the loss in New Orleans showed they struggle to contain dynamic scorers—Zion, Saddiq Bey, and Dejounte Murray all got theirs in that 114-106 defeat. Ty Jerome is doubtful, which limits their backcourt options behind Morant. When your frontcourt is decimated and your home record is underwater, laying points becomes difficult even against road teams. The Grizzlies need Morant and Jackson to carry huge offensive loads while hoping Minnesota’s shooting cools off, which is a lot to ask.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This comes down to whether Memphis can slow Minnesota’s perimeter attack and whether the Grizzlies have enough frontcourt bodies to handle Randle and the Wolves’ interior presence. Minnesota just proved they can drain 22 threes when they’re locked in, and Memphis doesn’t have the wing depth to chase shooters for 48 minutes. Edwards, McDaniels, and Randle create pick-your-poison scenarios where you’re either giving up open threes or allowing drives to the rim.
Memphis needs Morant to control pace and Jackson to protect the paint, but the Grizzlies are missing the rotation depth to match possessions when Minnesota pushes tempo. Clarke’s absence removes a versatile defender who could switch onto multiple positions, and Edey’s long-term injury means they’re relying on limited frontcourt options. The Wolves can exploit that by spreading the floor and forcing Memphis into tough rotations.
The total at 229.5 assumes Minnesota can score efficiently, but the question is whether Memphis can generate enough offense to keep pace. Morant and Jackson are capable of explosive quarters, but Aldama as the third option isn’t enough firepower when you’re facing a team with three guys averaging 14-plus. If Minnesota’s defense locks in and limits transition opportunities for Morant, the Grizzlies will struggle to crack 105 points, which puts pressure on the Wolves to carry the scoring load to push this over.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m laying the points with Minnesota. The Wolves have the offensive firepower, the depth advantage, and they’re facing a Grizzlies team that’s 9-14 at home and missing key frontcourt pieces. Edwards averaging 29.3 with Randle’s 22.2 and McDaniels’ 14.8 gives them three legitimate scoring threats, and Memphis doesn’t have the bodies to match up across the board. That recent win over Oklahoma City with 22 threes shows the kind of ceiling Minnesota has when they’re shooting well.
The risk is road variance and whether the Wolves can sustain defensive focus for 48 minutes. Morant and Jackson are capable of keeping this close if Minnesota relaxes, and seven and a half is a real number that requires the Wolves to win by double digits. But Memphis’ injuries and home struggles make this a spot where talent and depth should prevail. The Grizzlies are too thin to hang with a Minnesota team that has multiple ways to beat you.
BASH’S BEST BET: Timberwolves -7.5 for 2 units. Minnesota brings the firepower, Memphis lacks the depth, and that home record tells you the Grizzlies aren’t defending FedExForum. The Wolves cover on the road.
