The Celtics host a depleted Milwaukee squad that is officially entering “survival mode” without Giannis Antetokounmpo. Bash breaks down the efficiency gap and the “Rollins usage” factor to identify the sharpest prediction for Sunday’s ESPN showcase.
The Setup: Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics
Boston is laying 13.5 points at home against a Milwaukee team that’s effectively playing out the string. The Celtics sit 30-18 and third in the East. The Bucks are 18-28, twelfth in the conference, and without Giannis Antetokounmpo for what could be several weeks with a calf strain. This is the second straight game he’s missed, and Milwaukee just dropped a road contest to Washington 109-99 without him. Kevin Porter Jr. is also out with an oblique injury, stripping away another rotation piece that was averaging 16.8 points and 7.4 assists per game. The spread reflects the obvious talent gap, but at nearly two touchdowns, we’re not just betting on Boston to win—we’re betting on them to dominate a depleted opponent by multiple possessions. That’s a different conversation entirely.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics
Date: Sunday, February 1, 2026
Time: 3:30 ET
Venue: TD Garden
TV: ESPN
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Celtics -13.5 (-110) | Bucks +13.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Celtics -841 | Bucks +552
- Total: 217.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market isn’t being subtle here. A 13.5-point spread against a team missing its two-time MVP and another key ball-handler tells you everything about Milwaukee’s current state. Giannis was putting up 28.0 points, 10.0 boards, and 5.6 assists per game before the calf strain shut him down. Porter was contributing 16.8 points and 7.4 dimes. That’s nearly 45 points and 13 assists per game sitting on the injury report. The Bucks are down to Ryan Rollins (16.3 PPG, 5.4 APG) as their primary offensive engine, and while he’s been serviceable, he’s not the kind of player who forces defensive adjustments or creates efficient offense in high-leverage possessions.
Boston, meanwhile, is rolling with Jaylen Brown averaging 29.4 points per game, flanked by Derrick White (17.2 PPG, 5.4 APG) and Payton Pritchard, who just dropped 29 points in Friday’s 112-93 win over Sacramento. The Celtics have the firepower, the depth, and the home court. The line exists because Milwaukee doesn’t have the personnel to stay within striking distance once Boston extends a lead. The question isn’t whether the Celtics can win—it’s whether they’ll maintain the intensity required to cover a bloated number against an overmatched opponent.
Milwaukee Bucks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Bucks are 9-16 on the road this season, and that record was compiled with Giannis available for most of those contests. Without him, they’re relying on Rollins to generate offense, and while he’s averaging 16.3 points and 5.4 assists, he’s not a high-efficiency creator against elite defenses. The loss to Washington on Thursday—a team that’s hardly a defensive juggernaut—showed exactly what happens when Milwaukee lacks a legitimate offensive centerpiece. They managed just 99 points against a Wizards squad that gave up 109.
Defensively, the Bucks don’t have the personnel to slow down Brown or contain Boston’s perimeter shooting. Taurean Prince, who provided some wing depth early in the season, has been out indefinitely since November following neck surgery. The roster is thin, the talent is limited, and the margin for error is nonexistent. Milwaukee’s 18-28 record reflects a team that was already struggling to stay competitive in the East even with Giannis. Without him, they’re just trying to avoid blowouts.
Boston Celtics Breakdown: The Other Side
Boston bounced back from Wednesday’s home loss to Atlanta by dismantling Sacramento 112-93 on Friday. Pritchard led the way with 29 points, Baylor Scheierman added 16, and Neemias Queta pulled down 15 rebounds to go with 10 points. The Celtics have multiple offensive options, and they don’t need Brown to carry the entire load—though he’s been doing exactly that at 29.4 points per game. White and Pritchard both average over 17 points, and the depth chart allows Boston to maintain pace and pressure even when starters rest.
At 15-8 at home, the Celtics have been solid at TD Garden, though not dominant. That home record suggests they’re capable of losing focus against inferior opponents, which is the primary concern with a spread this large. The talent gap is obvious, but effort and execution matter when you’re trying to win by 14 or more. Boston has the firepower to blow Milwaukee out. Whether they’ll stay locked in for 48 minutes is the bet.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in transition and on the boards. Milwaukee doesn’t have the offensive firepower to trade baskets with Boston in a half-court setting, which means they’ll need to generate easy points off turnovers and second chances. The problem is that the Celtics don’t turn the ball over at a high rate, and Queta just grabbed 15 rebounds against Sacramento, showing Boston’s ability to control the glass even without traditional size.
The Bucks will try to slow the pace and limit possessions, but that strategy only works if you can execute in the half court. Without Giannis or Porter, Milwaukee doesn’t have the playmaking or shot creation to sustain offensive efficiency over 90-plus possessions. Boston, on the other hand, thrives in up-tempo situations where Brown and Pritchard can attack in space. The more possessions this game has, the wider the margin becomes.
Defensively, Milwaukee has no answer for Brown. He’s averaging 29.4 points per game, and the Bucks don’t have a wing defender capable of slowing him down. If Brown gets going early, this game could be over by halftime. The Celtics also have the depth to rotate fresh bodies and maintain defensive pressure, while Milwaukee is running a shortened rotation out of necessity. Over the course of 48 minutes, that gap in depth and talent compounds.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m staying away from the spread. Boston should win this game comfortably, but 13.5 points is a massive number, and the Celtics have shown a tendency to coast once they build a lead. The blowout is absolutely in play, but so is a scenario where Boston leads by 10 with five minutes left and Milwaukee cuts it to single digits in garbage time. I don’t love betting on effort and execution when the outcome isn’t in doubt.
The total at 217.5 is where the value sits. Milwaukee just scored 99 points against Washington and is missing its two primary offensive creators. The Bucks don’t have the firepower to push this game into the 220s, even if Boston gets up and runs. The Celtics scored 112 against Sacramento on Friday, and that was with balanced contributions across the roster. If Boston takes their foot off the gas in the second half—and they will once this game is decided—the pace slows, the possessions decrease, and the scoring dries up. Milwaukee’s offensive limitations combined with Boston’s ability to control tempo makes the under the sharper play.
BASH’S BEST BET: Under 217.5 for 2 units.
The risk is a first-half shootout where Boston hits everything and Milwaukee can’t defend. But over the full 48 minutes, the Bucks don’t have the offensive talent to keep pace, and the Celtics don’t need to score 120 to win by 15. Take the under and trust Milwaukee’s limitations to cap the ceiling.
