Kansas heads to Lubbock as a 4.5-point underdog despite their five-game winning streak. Bash breaks down the efficiency gap and whether Darryn Peterson’s probable return makes the Jayhawks the sharp prediction for Monday night.
The Setup: Kansas at Texas Tech
Texas Tech’s laying 4.5 to 5 points at home against Kansas on Monday night, and if you’re scratching your head at this number, you haven’t been paying attention to what’s happening in Lubbock. The Red Raiders are rolling at 7-2, Kansas comes in at 7-3, and the market’s telling us this is basically a pick’em on a neutral floor. But here’s the thing—when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread feels light for a Texas Tech team that’s been one of the most underrated squads in the Big 12.
Kansas brings that elite defense we’ve come to expect—95.1 adjusted defensive efficiency ranking 8th nationally. They’re holding opponents to 24.9% from three (6th in the country) and 37.5% overall from the field (16th). But the Jayhawks’ offense? It’s pedestrian at best, ranking 182nd in offensive rating at 111.2. Meanwhile, Texas Tech sits at 115.8 adjusted offensive efficiency (57th) and 97.4 adjusted defensive efficiency (25th). The Red Raiders can score, and they can defend well enough to hang with Kansas’ vaunted defense.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Kansas at Texas Tech
Date: February 2, 2026
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Venue: United Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, TX
Betting Lines:
- Spread: Texas Tech -4.5 to -5
- Total: 154.5
- Moneyline: Texas Tech -210, Kansas +175
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s start with the adjusted efficiency delta. Kansas holds a 20.0 adjusted net rating (16th nationally) versus Texas Tech’s 18.4 (26th). That’s a 1.6-point difference—essentially a push. Factor in home court advantage, which typically runs 3-4 points in college basketball, and you’d expect Texas Tech to be favored by somewhere between 2 and 5 points. The market landed at 4.5 to 5, which tracks perfectly with the efficiency data.
But here’s where it gets interesting. Kansas plays at a glacial 66.9 pace (244th nationally), while Texas Tech pushes it slightly more at 70.3 (125th). Neither team is running and gunning, which means fewer possessions and tighter margins. The total of 154.5 reflects this—it’s asking for roughly 77 points per team in what should be a defensive slugfest.
The problem? Kansas’ offense has been anemic. They’re scoring just 74.6 points per game (245th) with a 52.4% effective field goal percentage (160th). They don’t get to the line much, they don’t create turnovers (4.7 steals per game ranks 350th), and they’re terrible on the offensive glass (24.0% offensive rebound rate ranks 355th). This is a team that wins with defense and not much else. Texas Tech, meanwhile, crashes the offensive glass at an elite level—36.4% offensive rebound rate ranks 23rd nationally. That’s a massive advantage in a low-possession game.
Kansas Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Kansas does one thing at an elite level: they suffocate you defensively. That 95.1 adjusted defensive efficiency is legit, and they’ve got the personnel to make life miserable. They’re 6th in the country in opponent three-point percentage (24.9%) and 6th in blocks per game (6.4). Flory Bidunga is a rim protector who alters everything around the basket, and Kansas forces teams into tough mid-range shots.
Darryn Peterson leads the way offensively at 20.0 points per game, and Flory Bidunga adds 14.7 and 9.0 boards (44th nationally in rebounding). Melvin Council Jr. is the facilitator at 5.3 assists per game (59th), and Kansas has been efficient enough to win five straight, including quality wins over BYU, Baylor, and Iowa State.
But here’s the concern: Kansas doesn’t create easy offense. They rank 355th in offensive rebound percentage, which means when they miss, the possession is over. Against a Texas Tech team that defends reasonably well (97.4 adjusted defensive efficiency, 25th), Kansas could struggle to crack 70 points.
Texas Tech Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Texas Tech’s offense runs through two elite players: JT Toppin and Christian Anderson. Toppin is a monster—20.8 points and 11.5 rebounds per game (5th nationally in rebounding). He’s a walking double-double who dominates the glass and creates second-chance opportunities. Anderson is the engine, averaging 19.1 points and 7.0 assists per game (5th nationally). That’s a lethal pick-and-roll duo that Kansas will struggle to contain.
The Red Raiders rank 23rd in offensive rebound percentage (36.4%), which is a massive edge against a Kansas team that doesn’t box out well. They’re also shooting 36.5% from three (78th), which is solid enough to keep defenses honest. The concern is free throw shooting—67.2% ranks 291st nationally—but in a game that might not feature many trips to the line, that’s less of a factor.
Defensively, Texas Tech isn’t Kansas, but they’re good enough. They rank 25th in adjusted defensive efficiency (97.4) and 59th in opponent three-point percentage (29.4%). They force 7.4 steals per game (167th) and create enough chaos to disrupt Kansas’ methodical offense.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to two factors: offensive rebounding and half-court execution. Texas Tech’s 36.4% offensive rebound rate against Kansas’ 24.0% defensive rebound rate (355th) is a chasm. The Red Raiders are going to get second and third chances, and in a low-possession game, that’s gold. Kansas can’t afford to give up extra possessions when they’re already struggling to score.
The other factor is Kansas’ offensive limitations. They rank 182nd in offensive rating and 245th in scoring. Against a Texas Tech defense that’s 25th in adjusted efficiency, where are the points coming from? Peterson will get his, but who else? Bidunga is limited offensively, and Kansas doesn’t have the perimeter shooting to stretch Texas Tech’s defense.
Meanwhile, Texas Tech has two elite offensive players in Toppin and Anderson, and they’re playing at home where they’ve been dominant. The Red Raiders have won four of their last five, and their only recent loss was a road game at UCF where they still put up 80 points. This is a team that can score in the half-court, and they match up well against Kansas’ defensive strengths.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the points with Texas Tech -4.5. Kansas’ defense is elite, but their offense is a mess, and they’re walking into a buzzsaw in Lubbock. The Red Raiders have the offensive firepower with Toppin and Anderson, they dominate the glass, and they’re playing at home where the crowd will be rocking. Kansas has won five straight, but four of those were at home, and they haven’t faced a team with Texas Tech’s combination of size and playmaking.
The efficiency numbers support Texas Tech, the matchup favors Texas Tech, and the home court gives them the edge. Kansas will keep it close with defense, but they don’t have the offensive firepower to steal this one on the road. Give me the Red Raiders to cover and win by 7-8 points in a game that stays under the total.
Best Bet: Texas Tech -4.5
