Portland State hosts Idaho State as a touchdown favorite, looking to extend a dominant stretch at Viking Pavilion. Bash breaks down the defensive efficiency gap and the Vikings’ #16 ranked assist rate to find a winning prediction.
The Setup: Idaho State at Portland State
Portland State is laying 6.5 to 7 points at home against Idaho State on Monday night, and if you’re looking at these records and thinking this feels steep, I need you to pump the brakes. The Vikings are 5-3, the Bengals are 6-4, but when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread starts making a whole lot more sense. Portland State holds a defensive rating advantage that’s worth exploring, and Idaho State is limping into Viking Pavilion having lost four of their last five games. This isn’t about the records—it’s about the underlying numbers that tell us who these teams actually are. The market landed on a touchdown spread for a reason, and I’m here to explain why this number isn’t nearly as generous as it looks on the surface.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Idaho State at Portland State
Date: February 2, 2026
Time: 10:00 PM ET
Venue: Viking Pavilion, Portland, OR
Bovada:
Point Spread: Portland State -7
Over/Under: 138
Moneyline: Portland State -320, Idaho State +260
DraftKings:
Point Spread: Portland State -6.5
Over/Under: 137.5
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s talk efficiency, because that’s where this game gets decided. Portland State sits at a 99.7 defensive rating, ranked 91st nationally, while Idaho State checks in at 105.7, ranked 179th. That’s a significant gap on the defensive end, and it matters when you’re trying to cover a seven-point spread. The Vikings are simply better at preventing points when it counts.
On the offensive side, Idaho State actually has the edge in adjusted offensive efficiency at 110.2 (ranked 129th) compared to Portland State’s 104.4 (ranked 239th). But here’s the problem for the Bengals: they play at a glacial pace. Idaho State ranks 302nd in tempo at 64.6 possessions per game, while Portland State pushes it to 72.4 possessions, ranked 53rd nationally. The Vikings control the tempo at home, and that’s a massive advantage when you’re trying to impose your will.
The adjusted net efficiency tells the real story. Portland State’s sits at -0.7 (ranked 175th) while Idaho State is at +4.9 (ranked 119th). So why is Portland State favored by a touchdown? Home court matters, and the Vikings have won four of their last five at Viking Pavilion. Idaho State is 1-4 in their last five overall, and three of those losses came by double digits. The market is pricing in momentum and venue, and I can’t argue with that logic.
Idaho State Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Bengals do some things well, starting with offensive rebounding. They rank 40th nationally with a 35.6% offensive rebound rate, which gives them second-chance opportunities that can extend possessions and keep them in games. Caleb Van De Griend leads the way at 14.0 points and 7.1 rebounds per game, and Connor Hollenbeck adds 12.8 points and 4.6 boards. This is a team that can scrap on the glass.
They also protect the rim effectively, ranking 46th nationally with 4.7 blocks per game. That interior presence matters against a Portland State team that wants to attack the paint. The Bengals have scored 324 points in the paint this season, so they’re not afraid to work inside.
But here’s the problem: Idaho State can’t shoot from distance. They’re ranked 233rd in three-point percentage at 32.3%, and they only dish out 13.3 assists per game, ranked 250th. This is an isolation-heavy offense that grinds possessions down and struggles to create open looks. When you play at the 302nd-ranked pace, you need to be efficient with every possession. Idaho State isn’t.
Portland State Breakdown: The Counterpoint
The Vikings have two things working in their favor: tempo and playmaking. Jaylin Henderson is the engine, averaging 17.5 points and 6.2 assists per game, ranked 16th nationally in assists. That’s elite distribution for a mid-major guard, and he’s surrounded by capable scorers. Terri Miller Jr. adds 15.6 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 3.7 assists, giving Portland State a versatile forward who can hurt you in multiple ways.
Portland State ranks 68th in assists per game at 16.9, which means they’re moving the ball and creating quality looks. They shoot 48.1% from the field, ranked 71st nationally, and their 54.3% effective field goal percentage ranks 104th. This is a team that values efficiency and doesn’t settle for bad shots.
The Vikings also rebound well, pulling down 39.8 boards per game, ranked 73rd. Tre-Vaughn Minott controls the glass at 8.4 rebounds per game, ranked 65th nationally, and Keyon Kensie Jr. adds 7.9 boards, ranked 93rd. They won’t get bullied on the glass, which neutralizes Idaho State’s offensive rebounding advantage.
The concern? Turnovers. Portland State coughs it up 14.2 times per game, ranked 314th, which is brutal. If Idaho State can turn those mistakes into easy points, this spread gets tight in a hurry.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to pace and execution. Portland State wants to push tempo and create transition opportunities—they’ve scored 107 fast break points this season compared to Idaho State’s 76. The Vikings thrive in the open court, and Henderson is the perfect guard to orchestrate that attack.
Idaho State wants to slow this game down, grind possessions, and work the offensive glass. If they can turn this into a rock fight in the 60s, they’ve got a shot. But Portland State’s defensive rating of 99.7 suggests they can get stops when needed, and their opponent field goal percentage of 41.8% (ranked 115th) backs that up.
The head-to-head history favors Portland State. In their last meeting on January 3rd, the Vikings won 93-87 in a high-scoring affair. Last season, Portland State took the home game 76-59, which is eerily similar to this spread. The Vikings know how to win this matchup at home.
Idaho State’s recent form is concerning. They’ve lost four straight, including an 84-66 beatdown against Eastern Washington and a 74-62 loss at Montana State. This is a team that’s struggling to find answers, and going on the road against a confident Portland State squad isn’t the cure.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the points with Portland State -6.5. The Vikings control tempo at home, they defend better, and they’re catching Idaho State at the perfect time. The Bengals have lost four of five, and three of those losses came by double digits. This isn’t a team that’s competing down the stretch right now.
Portland State’s ability to push pace neutralizes Idaho State’s offensive rebounding advantage, and Henderson’s playmaking creates enough quality looks to pull away in the second half. The Vikings have won four of their last five overall, and they’re 3-1 at home this season. Give me the home team laying less than a touchdown against a team that can’t shoot and can’t keep up. Portland State -6.5 is the play.
