The Hornets host New Orleans as 7-point favorites, riding their longest winning streak in a decade after a gritty victory over the Spurs. Bash breaks down the efficiency metrics to find a winning prediction for this Monday afternoon tip-off.
The Setup: Pelicans at Hornets
Charlotte is laying 7 points at home against a Pelicans team that’s circling the drain at 13-38. New Orleans just got torched by Embiid’s 40-piece in Philly on Saturday, and now they’re walking into a Spectrum Center buzzsaw riding a six-game winning streak. The Hornets are 22-28 but playing with real structure right now—Brandon Miller dropped 26 in their last outing, and the supporting cast is clicking. This number feels light when you consider the Pelicans are 5-19 on the road and missing their starting point guard indefinitely. Dejounte Murray remains out following Achilles surgery, and there’s no timeline for his return. That’s not a rotation issue—that’s a structural problem against a Charlotte backcourt that can push tempo and create advantages in transition.
The line opened at Charlotte -7.0, and the total sits at 232.5. Both numbers make sense on the surface, but the possession math and efficiency gaps tell you exactly where the value lives.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: New Orleans Pelicans at Charlotte Hornets
Date: Monday, February 2, 2026
Time: 3:00 ET
Venue: Spectrum Center
TV: Home: FanDuel SN SE | Away: NBA League Pass, GCSEN, Pelicans.com
Spread: Charlotte Hornets -7.0 (-110) | New Orleans Pelicans +7.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Charlotte Hornets -286 | New Orleans Pelicans +225
Total: Over 232.5 (-110) | Under 232.5 (-110)
Odds via MyBookie.ag
Why This Line Exists
The market is giving Charlotte a full touchdown at home, and the logic is straightforward: the Hornets are playing their best basketball of the season while New Orleans continues to bleed games on the road. That 5-19 road mark isn’t just bad—it’s catastrophic when you factor in how many of those losses came against teams with winning records. Charlotte sits at 10-13 at home, which isn’t dominant, but they’ve won six straight overall and just handled San Antonio with balanced scoring from Miller, Collin Sexton’s 21 off the bench, and LaMelo Ball’s playmaking.
The Pelicans are trotting out Zion Williamson at 21.7 points per game, Trey Murphy III at 21.5, and Saddiq Bey at 16.5, but the connective tissue is missing. Without Murray orchestrating the offense, rookie Jeremiah Fears is running point, and that’s a massive downgrade in decision-making and tempo control. The Hornets can exploit that inexperience by pushing pace and forcing turnovers in transition. Charlotte’s backcourt depth with Ball and Sexton gives them multiple ball-handlers who can attack mismatches, and that’s exactly the kind of pressure New Orleans can’t handle right now.
The total at 232.5 reflects both teams’ ability to score, but it also assumes the Pelicans can keep up. That’s a bold assumption given their road efficiency and lack of floor general. Charlotte’s winning streak has featured balanced offensive outputs, and they’re not relying on one guy to carry the load every night. That’s sustainable basketball, and it’s why this line feels reasonable but beatable.
Pelicans Breakdown: What You Need to Know
New Orleans is a mess right now, and the numbers don’t lie. That 13-38 record puts them 14th in the conference, and their road splits are brutal—5-19 away from home with no signs of improvement. Zion is still producing at 21.7 points and 6.1 boards per game, but the efficiency isn’t translating to wins. Trey Murphy III is having a career year at 21.5 points and 5.9 rebounds, and Saddiq Bey is chipping in 16.5 points, but none of that matters if the point guard position is a black hole.
Dejounte Murray’s absence is catastrophic for this offense. He’s been out since Achilles surgery, and the team has no clarity on when—or if—he’ll return this season. That leaves Jeremiah Fears running the show, and while the rookie has flashes, he’s not ready to manage an NBA offense against a team like Charlotte that can pressure the ball and force mistakes. The Pelicans just gave up 124 points to Philly on Saturday, and Embiid carved them up for 40 and 11. That’s a defensive structure problem, and it’s not getting fixed on a Monday afternoon in Charlotte.
The road woes are systemic. New Orleans doesn’t defend consistently, they don’t control tempo, and they don’t have the depth to hang with teams that can run multiple ball-handlers at them. Against a Hornets squad that’s clicking offensively, this is a nightmare spot.
Hornets Breakdown: The Other Side
Charlotte is riding a six-game winning streak, and the offensive balance is real. Brandon Miller is leading the way at 20.8 points per game, LaMelo Ball is distributing at 7.6 assists while chipping in 19.0 points, and rookie Kon Knueppel is contributing 18.8 points and 5.4 boards. That’s three guys who can create their own shot and make plays for others, and it’s exactly the kind of versatility that destroys a defense like New Orleans’.
In their last game against San Antonio, Miller went for 26, Sexton hit all five of his three-point attempts and finished with 21 off the bench, and Ball managed the game with 16 points and 8 rebounds. That’s a rotation that’s humming, and the depth is legitimate. Sexton’s shooting efficiency off the bench is a luxury most teams don’t have, and it allows Charlotte to maintain offensive pressure even when Ball sits.
The Hornets are 10-13 at home, but that record doesn’t capture the momentum they’re carrying right now. They’re playing with confidence, sharing the ball, and defending well enough to win close games. Against a Pelicans team that’s 5-19 on the road and missing its starting point guard, Charlotte has every advantage in pace, depth, and execution. Mason Plumlee is out with a groin strain, but that’s a third-string center role, and it doesn’t impact the core rotation. Josh Green is probable with a thumb issue, though he’s been a non-factor lately with just 4.0 points over his last five games.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in transition and at the point of attack. Charlotte wants to push pace and create easy buckets before New Orleans can set its defense, and the Pelicans don’t have the personnel to slow that down. Ball and Sexton can both push the ball up the floor, and Miller is lethal in transition when he gets a runway. The Pelicans’ lack of a true floor general means they’ll struggle to organize defensively, and that’s where Charlotte can build a double-digit lead in the first half.
The possession math favors the Hornets significantly. If Charlotte can get into the mid-90s in possessions—which is realistic given their pace and New Orleans’ defensive breakdowns—they’re looking at 1.10+ points per possession based on their recent efficiency. The Pelicans, meanwhile, are averaging closer to 1.05 on the road, and that gap compounds over 48 minutes. Even if New Orleans keeps it close through three quarters, Charlotte’s depth and home-court advantage should close this out.
Defensively, the Hornets can pressure Fears into mistakes and force Zion to operate in isolation. Williamson is talented enough to score in bunches, but he’s not a high-volume three-point shooter, and Charlotte can pack the paint and make him work for everything. Murphy and Bey will get theirs, but if the Pelicans can’t generate easy offense in transition or from the point guard position, they’re looking at a grind-it-out game where Charlotte’s home-court edge and depth win out.
The total at 232.5 is interesting because both teams can score, but New Orleans’ road inefficiency suggests they’ll struggle to hit their number. Charlotte should cruise past 115, but the Pelicans getting to 110+ on the road without Murray feels optimistic. The under has some appeal, but the real value is on Charlotte’s ability to control tempo and build a lead that New Orleans can’t close.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m laying the 7 points with Charlotte. The Hornets are playing their best basketball of the season, they’re at home, and they’re facing a Pelicans team that’s 5-19 on the road and missing its starting point guard. The pace advantage is significant, the depth disparity is real, and New Orleans has no defensive answer for Ball, Miller, and Sexton rotating through ball-handling duties. Charlotte can push this to double digits in the second half, and even if the Pelicans hang around, the Hornets have the firepower to close.
The main risk is Zion going nuclear and keeping New Orleans within striking distance, but even if he drops 30, the Pelicans don’t have the structure to steal this game on the road. Charlotte’s six-game winning streak isn’t a fluke—it’s the result of balanced scoring, smart rotations, and execution down the stretch. That’s exactly what beats a disorganized road team like New Orleans.
BASH’S BEST BET: Charlotte Hornets -7.0 for 2 units.
This line should be closer to 9, and the Hornets cover comfortably at home.
