Tennessee is a juggernaut, but can Malik Dia and Ole Miss catch the Vols looking ahead to Kentucky? Bash delivers the bold truth on whether the Rebels can cover double digits in Knoxville.
The Setup: Ole Miss at Tennessee
Tennessee’s laying 11.5 to 12 points against Ole Miss at Food City Center, and this number tells you everything you need to know about where these programs stand right now. The Vols are rolling at 7-3 with wins over Auburn, Alabama, and Texas A&M in their last five games. Ole Miss? They’ve dropped three straight SEC contests and look completely lost on both ends of the floor. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread isn’t inflated—it’s actually conservative given the massive gap between these teams.
Tennessee ranks 30th nationally in adjusted net efficiency at plus-16.8, while Ole Miss sits at 104th with a plus-6.9 mark. That’s nearly a 10-point difference in efficiency margin, and we’re getting a number right around 12. The Vols defend at an elite level, ranking 32nd in adjusted defensive efficiency at 98.5, while Ole Miss sits at 104th defensively. This is a bad matchup for a struggling Rebels squad that can’t shoot consistently and doesn’t defend well enough to hang with elite SEC competition.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Ole Miss (5-4) @ Tennessee (7-3)
Date: February 3, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Food City Center, Knoxville, TN
Betting Lines:
Spread: Tennessee -11.5 to -12
Total: 139 to 139.5
Moneyline: Tennessee -950, Ole Miss +600
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s start with the efficiency gap and work backwards. Tennessee’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 115.3 (61st nationally), while their adjusted defensive efficiency ranks 32nd at 98.5. Ole Miss checks in at 116th offensively (111.1) and 104th defensively (104.2). The Vols have a significant advantage on both ends of the floor, but particularly on defense where they’re holding opponents to just 38.5% from the field (28th nationally) and 29.7% from three (67th).
Here’s where the pace factor matters. Tennessee plays at 69.3 possessions per game (155th nationally), while Ole Miss crawls at 67.4 (222nd). Neither team wants to run, which means fewer possessions and tighter scoring margins. That actually works against Tennessee covering a double-digit spread in a game that projects around 140 total points.
The market landed on 11.5 to 12 because the efficiency gap suggests Tennessee should win by double digits, but the slow pace creates variance. My math says Tennessee should be favored by around 13-14 points based purely on the efficiency differential and home court advantage. The books are giving Ole Miss a slight cushion here, probably accounting for the Rebels’ desperation spot after three straight losses.
Ole Miss Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
I’m searching for reasons to back Ole Miss, and honestly, there aren’t many. The Rebels rank 232nd nationally in scoring at 75.3 points per game and 235th in effective field goal percentage at 50.8%. They can’t shoot well enough to compete with elite defensive teams, and Tennessee absolutely qualifies.
The one area where Ole Miss shows promise? Shot blocking. They rank 12th nationally with 5.8 blocks per game, and they defend the three-point line reasonably well, holding opponents to 32.9% (188th). That rim protection could matter against a Tennessee team that generates 406 points in the paint through 10 games.
Ilias Kamardine runs the show at point guard, averaging 14.0 points and 4.4 assists (117th nationally in assists). Malik Dia provides interior presence at 13.1 points and 6.3 rebounds. But here’s the problem—Ole Miss doesn’t have the firepower to match Tennessee’s balanced attack, and their 111.1 offensive rating (184th) suggests they’ll struggle to reach 70 points in Knoxville.
Tennessee Breakdown: The Counterpoint
The Vols are clicking on all cylinders right now. Ja’Kobi Gillespie leads the way at 17.3 points and 5.4 assists per game (50th nationally in assists), while Nate Ament provides versatility at 16.3 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 2.8 assists. That’s a point-forward who can facilitate and score, and he’s a matchup nightmare for Ole Miss.
Tennessee’s rebounding dominance cannot be overstated. They rank 14th nationally in rebounds per game at 43.3 and 31st in offensive rebounding percentage at 36.0%. Against an Ole Miss team that ranks 209th in rebounding at 36.4 boards per game, the Vols should control the glass and generate second-chance opportunities all night.
The concern? Tennessee ranks 251st in turnovers per game at 13.2, and their turnover ratio sits at 228th nationally. They’re sloppy with the basketball, which creates transition opportunities for opponents. But Ole Miss only generates 65 fast break points through nine games, so they’re not built to capitalize on Tennessee’s mistakes.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to Tennessee’s defensive pressure against Ole Miss’s offensive limitations. The Vols rank 28th nationally in opponent field goal percentage at 38.5%, and they defend without fouling—a critical factor against an Ole Miss team that shoots 76.3% from the free throw line (46th nationally).
The rebounding battle tilts heavily toward Tennessee. The Vols grab 43.3 rebounds per game compared to Ole Miss’s 36.4, and that seven-rebound difference translates to extra possessions and second-chance points. Tennessee generates 144 points off turnovers through 10 games, while Ole Miss only creates 116. The Vols should force the Rebels into uncomfortable situations and convert those mistakes into easy baskets.
Ole Miss’s best chance involves slowing the game to a crawl and hoping their shot-blocking disrupts Tennessee’s interior game. But the Vols rank 27th nationally in assists per game at 18.7, which means they move the ball and find open looks. Tennessee’s 52.8% effective field goal percentage (146th) isn’t elite, but it’s significantly better than Ole Miss’s 50.8% mark (235th).
The total of 139 to 139.5 feels about right given the pace. I’d project Tennessee to score around 78-82 points and hold Ole Miss in the low-to-mid 60s. That puts us right around the total, maybe slightly under.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the points with Tennessee at -11.5. Yes, it’s a big number in a slow-paced game, but the efficiency gap is too significant to ignore. Tennessee ranks 30th in adjusted net efficiency while Ole Miss sits at 104th—that’s a chasm, not a gap.
The Rebels are reeling after three straight losses, and they don’t have the offensive firepower to keep pace with a Tennessee team that’s defending at an elite level and controlling the glass. The Vols should win this game by 15-18 points, which gives us plenty of cushion on the 11.5-point spread.
I’m also taking a small position on the under 139.5. Two teams ranking 155th and 222nd in pace should produce a grind-it-out affair, and Tennessee’s defensive efficiency suggests Ole Miss will struggle to reach 65 points. Give me Tennessee to cover and the under to cash.
Best Bet: Tennessee -11.5
Lean: Under 139.5
