Minnesota heads to Toronto as a slim 1.5-point favorite, but the status of Anthony Edwards and the departure of Mike Conley has the market on edge. Handicapper Bash breaks down the shooting splits and explains why the Raptors’ ball movement could be the decisive factor in this best bet.
The Setup: Timberwolves at Raptors
Minnesota rolls into Scotiabank Arena on Wednesday night as a 1.5-point road favorite against Toronto, and the market’s treating this like a coin flip with Anthony Edwards’ status hanging in the balance. The Wolves are 31-20 but just got torched for 137 in Memphis on Monday. The Raptors sit 30-21 and just snapped a two-game skid by handling Utah at home. The total’s parked at 225.5, and that number tells you everything about how the oddsmakers see this pace-up environment playing out. Minnesota averages 119.5 points per game compared to Toronto’s 113.6, but the Raptors distribute better with 29.3 assists per game versus Minnesota’s 26.6. The question isn’t talent—it’s whether the Wolves can defend well enough on the road to justify laying points without knowing if their best player suits up.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Minnesota Timberwolves (31-20) at Toronto Raptors (30-21)
When: February 4, 2026, 7:30 ET
Where: Scotiabank Arena
Watch: TSN (Home), NBA League Pass, FanDuel SN North Extra (Away)
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Timberwolves -1.5 (-110) | Raptors +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Timberwolves -125 | Raptors +102
- Total: Over/Under 225.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market’s giving Minnesota a field goal’s worth of respect despite the Raptors playing at home, and it comes down to shooting efficiency. The Wolves hit 48.2% from the field and 37.6% from three compared to Toronto’s 47.1% and 34.0% respectively. That’s a 3.6-percentage-point gap from deep, and when you’re running 90-plus possessions, those margins compound fast. Minnesota’s +4.9 plus/minus compared to Toronto’s +1.4 reflects consistent point differential advantage all season.
But here’s the wrinkle: Edwards is questionable with an elbow injury after dropping 39 in that Memphis loss. Julius Randle’s also questionable, though he played through the same tag Monday. The line hasn’t budged much because the market’s assuming Edwards plays—he’s averaging 29.7 points on 49.4% shooting and 40.7% from three. Without him, this number would be Raptors -2 or better. Toronto’s 14-11 at home versus Minnesota’s 14-12 on the road tells you the venue advantage isn’t dramatic, but the Raptors’ 2.7-assist edge per game suggests they move the ball better in halfcourt sets, which matters when defending Minnesota’s isolation-heavy attack.
Timberwolves Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Minnesota’s offensive identity runs through Edwards and Randle, who combine for 51.9 points per game. Jaden McDaniels adds 15.2 points on 51.9% shooting and 45.6% from three, giving them a legitimate third scoring option who doesn’t kill possessions. Naz Reid’s 14.6 points and 6.4 rebounds off the bench provides frontcourt depth, especially if Randle sits.
The Wolves grab 11.3 offensive rebounds per game and force 8.7 steals plus 5.6 blocks, creating extra possessions on both ends. They turn it over 14.5 times per game, which is manageable but not elite. The concern is defensive consistency—they allowed 137 to Memphis and can get carved up in transition when their halfcourt defense breaks down. Donte DiVincenzo’s 13.4 points and 4.2 assists gives them secondary playmaking, but Toronto’s ball movement could expose Minnesota’s rotations if they’re not locked in.
Raptors Breakdown: The Other Side
Toronto spreads the wealth better than most teams. Brandon Ingram leads at 21.9 points, Scottie Barnes adds 19.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 5.5 assists, and RJ Barrett chips in 18.8 points. That’s three guys who can get you 20 on any night, and Immanuel Quickley’s 16.8 points and 6.1 assists orchestrates the offense without dominating the ball.
The Raptors commit just 14.0 turnovers per game compared to Minnesota’s 14.5, and their assist numbers—29.3 per game—reflect unselfish play. Sandro Mamukelashvili has stepped up with Jakob Poeltl still out due to a back injury, averaging 11.2 points on 52.7% shooting. The issue is shooting volume—Toronto’s 34.0% from three means they need to win at the rim and in transition. They grab 11.4 offensive boards, matching Minnesota’s crash rate, but their defensive activity totals—8.5 steals and 4.8 blocks—trail the Wolves slightly.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This comes down to Minnesota’s shooting advantage versus Toronto’s ball movement and home-court execution. The Wolves’ 5.9-point scoring edge per game looks dominant on paper, but the Raptors’ 2.7-assist advantage suggests they generate better looks in the halfcourt. When Minnesota’s hitting from three at 37.6%, they’re nearly impossible to stop. When they cool off, their defensive lapses get exposed.
Toronto’s playing the second game of a five-game homestand after beating Utah, so the rhythm and familiarity are there. Minnesota’s playing the second leg of a road trip after getting torched in Memphis. The rebounding battle is essentially even—Minnesota’s 44.9 total rebounds versus Toronto’s 43.1—but the Wolves’ 1.1-block advantage could matter in rim protection.
The total at 225.5 assumes both teams push pace and convert efficiently. Minnesota’s averaging 119.5 points, Toronto’s at 113.6—that’s 233.1 combined if both hit season averages. But Toronto’s home games haven’t been shootouts, and Minnesota’s road defense has been inconsistent. If Edwards is compromised or sits, the Wolves lose their most efficient scorer and the total drops into the 220 range organically.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m backing Toronto +1.5 at home in a spot where Minnesota’s dealing with injury uncertainty and coming off a defensive disaster in Memphis. The Raptors move the ball better, commit fewer turnovers, and have the home-court advantage in a game the market’s treating like a toss-up. If Edwards sits or plays limited minutes, this becomes Raptors -2 in a hurry. If he plays full strength, Toronto’s ball movement and Scottie Barnes’ ability to defend multiple positions keeps this within a possession.
The risk is Minnesota’s shooting variance—if they hit 40% from three, the Wolves cover easily. But Toronto’s 14-11 home record reflects solid execution at Scotiabank Arena, and Minnesota’s 14-12 road mark shows they’re beatable away from home. The Raptors’ assist edge and lower turnover rate give them more margin for error in a tight game.
BASH’S BEST BET: Raptors +1.5 for 2 units.
Take the home team getting points in a game where the visiting favorite’s best player is questionable and their defense just allowed 137. Toronto’s ball movement and home rhythm make this a coin flip at worst, and you’re getting paid to find out.
