The Pelicans enter Fiserv Forum as 5-point favorites, a line dictated by Giannis Antetokounmpo’s multi-week calf injury. Handicapper Bash breaks down why Milwaukee’s elite 39.3% three-point shooting makes the home underdog the sharpest best bet for Wednesday night.
The Setup: Pelicans at Bucks
New Orleans is laying 5 points on the road against Milwaukee on Wednesday night, and that number tells you everything about where both franchises stand. The Pelicans are 13-39 overall and 5-20 on the road. The Bucks are 19-29 and missing Giannis Antetokounmpo, who’s expected to miss several weeks with a calf injury. This line exists because Milwaukee’s top scorer is out, but the Bucks just snapped a five-game skid with Kyle Kuzma dropping 31 points in a 131-115 win over Chicago on Tuesday. Meanwhile, New Orleans blew a 22-point lead and lost to Charlotte 102-95 on Monday, extending their struggles to 13 losses in their last 15 games. The market is asking you to trust a Pelicans team that can’t win on the road against a Milwaukee squad that’s been more competitive at home despite the injuries. The efficiency numbers and shooting splits suggest this spread is inflated.
Game Info & Betting Lines
New Orleans Pelicans (13-39) at Milwaukee Bucks (19-29)
Date: Wednesday, February 4, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Fiserv Forum
TV: Home: FanDuel SN WI | Away: NBA League Pass, GCSEN, Pelicans.com
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
Spread: Pelicans -5.0 (-110) | Bucks +5.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Pelicans -180 | Bucks +147
Total: Over/Under 222.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The Pelicans are 5-point road favorites because Giannis Antetokounmpo is out. That’s the headline. Milwaukee’s 28.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game are gone, and the Bucks are already 12th in the Eastern Conference at 19-29. But the underlying numbers suggest this spread is too generous to New Orleans. The Pelicans average 2.5 more points per game than Milwaukee, but they shoot 45.9% from the field compared to Milwaukee’s 47.9%. The Bucks also shoot 39.3% from three-point range versus New Orleans’ 33.7%. That’s a massive efficiency gap that doesn’t show up in raw scoring averages.
Milwaukee’s plus/minus is -4.1 compared to New Orleans’ -6.5, meaning the Bucks have been more competitive in their losses. The Pelicans are 5-20 on the road, which is one of the worst road records in the league. They just blew a 22-point lead to Charlotte, a team that’s been hot but still shouldn’t be rallying from that deficit against a competent opponent. The market is pricing in Giannis’ absence, but it’s not accounting for how poorly New Orleans has performed away from home or how efficiently Milwaukee shoots the ball even without their best player.
Pelicans Breakdown: What You Need to Know
New Orleans averages 114.0 points per game, led by Trey Murphy III at 21.6 points and Zion Williamson at 21.4 points. Murphy shoots 47.1% from the field and 36.0% from three, while Zion is at 57.7% from the field but doesn’t attempt threes. Saddiq Bey adds 16.3 points at 44.6% shooting, and Jordan Poole contributes 14.5 points but shoots just 37.0% from the field. That’s the problem with this Pelicans offense—they have scoring options, but the efficiency isn’t there beyond Zion.
New Orleans averages 12.6 offensive rebounds per game compared to Milwaukee’s 8.6, which is a significant advantage on the glass. They also commit 0.3 fewer turnovers per game and average 9.0 steals and 4.7 blocks, giving them an edge in defensive activity. But none of that has translated to road success. Dejounte Murray remains out indefinitely as he recovers from a torn right Achilles tendon, leaving rookie Jeremiah Fears as the starting point guard. Fears averages 13.3 points and 2.9 assists but shoots just 43.0% from the field and 31.9% from three. The Pelicans are missing their primary facilitator, and it shows in their 24.7 assists per game compared to Milwaukee’s 26.2.
Bucks Breakdown: The Other Side
Milwaukee is without Giannis and potentially Kevin Porter Jr., who’s questionable with a right oblique strain. Porter averages 16.8 points, 7.4 assists, and 5.0 rebounds, and he’s missed six straight games. But the Bucks just beat Chicago by 16 points with Kuzma leading the way at 31 points. Ryan Rollins has stepped up to average 16.6 points and 5.6 assists while shooting 46.4% from the field and 40.9% from three. Bobby Portis adds 13.2 points and 6.7 rebounds while shooting 48.2% from the field and 45.2% from three. That’s elite three-point shooting from a role player.
The Bucks average 26.2 assists per game, which is 1.5 more than New Orleans, and they shoot 47.9% from the field and 39.3% from three. Those are the numbers of an offense that can score efficiently even without Giannis. Milwaukee is 10-12 at home compared to New Orleans’ 5-20 road record, and they just snapped a five-game losing streak with a dominant performance. Taurean Prince is out indefinitely after undergoing surgery for a herniated disc in his neck, but he was averaging just 6.1 points in 21.0 minutes before being shut down. His absence doesn’t move the needle.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to shooting efficiency and home-court advantage. Milwaukee shoots 47.9% from the field and 39.3% from three, while New Orleans shoots 45.9% from the field and 33.7% from three. That’s a 2.0% difference in field goal percentage and a 5.6% difference in three-point percentage. Over the course of a game, that adds up. If Milwaukee attempts 90 field goals and New Orleans attempts 90 field goals, the Bucks make 1.8 more shots. If both teams attempt 30 threes, Milwaukee makes 1.68 more three-pointers. That’s a swing of roughly 5-6 points based on shooting efficiency alone.
New Orleans averages 3.0 more rebounds per game, including 4.0 more offensive rebounds, which creates second-chance opportunities. But the Pelicans are 5-20 on the road, and they just blew a 22-point lead to Charlotte. That’s not a team you trust to close out games in hostile environments. Milwaukee is 10-12 at home and just beat Chicago by 16 points without Giannis. Kuzma matched a season high with 31 points, and the Bucks shot the ball well enough to cover the spread comfortably.
The total is set at 222.5, which suggests a pace that favors both offenses. New Orleans averages 114.0 points per game, and Milwaukee averages 111.5 points per game. That adds up to 225.5 points, which is 3.0 points above the total. But Milwaukee’s defensive activity—7.6 steals and 4.1 blocks per game—is lower than New Orleans’ 9.0 steals and 4.7 blocks. The Pelicans create more turnovers, which could slow the game down and push this total under.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Milwaukee +5.0 for 2 units. The Pelicans are 5-20 on the road, and they just blew a 22-point lead to Charlotte. That’s not a team I’m laying points with in any situation, let alone on the road against a Bucks team that shoots 47.9% from the field and 39.3% from three. Milwaukee is 10-12 at home, and they just snapped a five-game skid with a 16-point win over Chicago. Kuzma dropped 31 points, and the Bucks have enough shooting to keep this game close even without Giannis.
The risk is that New Orleans’ rebounding advantage—3.0 more rebounds per game and 4.0 more offensive rebounds—creates enough second-chance points to cover the spread. But Milwaukee’s shooting efficiency is too significant to ignore. The Bucks make shots at a higher rate, and they’re at home against a Pelicans team that can’t win on the road. Five points is too many.
BASH’S BEST BET: Milwaukee Bucks +5.0 for 2 units.
