NFL handicapper Loot Levinson dives into the massive prop market at BetOnline for Super Bowl LX. From alternate lines to kicker distance, Loot breaks down the math and the matchups to find the best NFL picks for the season’s final game.
It’s amazing how much the NFL prop betting landscape has exploded in recent years. First, you could just bet on some aspects of the game, then almost all details within a game became bets, and now, anything that can happen at or around the Super Bowl is fair game. While we don’t mind opening up the limits a little bit, we try to make it more about things where football and the game itself figure into the equation. It’s a time to have fun, but also our last shot to get a little something out of this NFL season. The NFL prop market at BetOnline offers anything you could ever dream up. Here are some of the ones we liked.
Alternate Line
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -10.5 at +207 betting odds. The game’s standard spread is set at Seattle -5 as of press time. The negatives are present for this stand, namely being on the wrong side of a key number at +10.5, with backdoor possibilities being rampant. You can still catch the Seahawks at a good number and just hope they keep the Patriots at arm’s length, with their defense having a really good game.
Hunter Henry Receiving Yards O/U 32.5 Yards
Pick: Over. For all the success the Seahawks’ defense has enjoyed on this run to the Super Bowl, they’ve seen some opposing tight ends in this postseason get in a position to shine, with both Jake Tonges and Colby Parkinson eclipsing this Henry O/U by a significant margin. On one hand, there are so many mouths to feed and such variety in this New England offense that a given guy like Henry can easily disappear game-to-game. Henry has done that and, even in this postseason, has been pretty quiet. Something tells me he gets more involved in this game. I like the over.
TreVeyon Henderson Longest Rush of the Game O/U 7.5 Yards
Pick: Over at -115 betting odds. First, the bad. After getting a combined 21 rushing attempts in their first two playoff games, Henderson only got three in the conference title game against Denver. You also get the feeling that in the bigger spots, a head coach like Vrabel would prefer the work of Rhamondre Stevenson, as he has shown toward the end of the regular season and into the postseason. But I still think he gets his looks, and if Stevenson falters, having a speedster with a different look in there, like Henderson, is a move Vrabel could make. And in the mix of all that, despite the matchup not being ideal, I see him getting one good run out of the deal.
George Holani Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 Yards
Pick: Over 9.5 receiving yards at -115. One byproduct of losing Zach Charbonnet for the playoffs was Kenneth Walker getting more work. Still, we also saw Holani absorb some of that workload against the Rams, getting 3 carries, while being targeted four times. He caught three passes for 27 yards, and all we need him to do here is crack double-digits in receiving yardage—a seemingly doable achievement. In one sense, that production came in a very offense-heavy battle against the Rams, and a more subdued game could easily mean Holani not getting much of a shot to shine. Still, there was enough trust shown toward Holani by this coaching staff in a very important spot in the conference title game to warrant consideration for an even bigger spot on Sunday. I have a funny feeling this one could fall early.
55 Yard Field Goal
Pick: Andreas Borregales at +600 and Jason Myers at +550. This one is a bit out there. But the reason the threshold is 55 and not 50 is the significant odds-jump that occurs with those added five yards. And the odds are good enough that we do OK if either one hits, though both can obviously hit too. Trying to pinpoint where offenses can be stalled is foolish. But these defenses are the types where you can easily envision drives ending in this general area several times. Their combined mark this year at 50+ is 13/16, so I think things shake out for a decent-value spot.
Most Rushing and Receiving Yards
Pick: Stefon Diggs at +4000. Why not attempt at least one Hail Mary? At 40-to-1, the rewards are handsome for a pick that doesn’t seem so crazy. A 1000-yard receiver this season who had some big games and has had big postseason games in the past has some hurdles to overcome for this bet. First, unlike others who have the best odds atop this list, receiving is the only way he’s going to get yards, and he has seldom been a go-to target for Maye in this postseason, with just 73 yards through the air in 3 games. And going against a good defense doesn’t help. Still, it’s not like the list of other contenders is so endless, with only Kenneth Walker, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Rhamondre Stevenson listed over him. A 40-to-1 return for the fourth choice on the board in a game that could be more defensive than some are anticipating is pretty appetizing.
