UNCW wants revenge, but the market is asking you to lay points against a team that’s already handled them this season. Bash investigates if the Seahawks are a lock at home or if William & Mary is the ultimate best bet getting +4.5.
The Setup: William & Mary at UNC Wilmington
UNCW is laying 4.5 points at Trask Coliseum in a high-stakes CAA rematch. While the Seahawks boast a dominant 19-3 record, the Tribe already secured a 77-70 victory in the first meeting this January. This spread highlights a classic clash of styles: William & Mary’s 6th-ranked national pace (77.0) against UNCW’s methodical halfcourt grind.
The market is essentially asking if the Seahawks can avenge their previous loss by controlling the glass and slowing down a Tribe offense that generates 20.0 assists per game. With a total set at 159.5, oddsmakers expect a track meet that favors W&M’s explosive transition game.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Matchup: William & Mary (14-8, 5-5 CAA) @ UNC Wilmington (19-3, 8-1 CAA)
- Date: February 5, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Trask Coliseum, Wilmington, NC
- TV: CBS Sports Network
| Market | Line |
|---|---|
| Spread | UNC Wilmington -4.5 (-110) |
| Total | 159.5 (Over/Under -110) |
| Moneyline | UNCW -225 | W&M +184 |
Why This Number Makes Sense
The 4.5-point spread respects UNCW’s record and home-court advantage, but the adjusted efficiency numbers tell a different story. William & Mary ranks 67th nationally in adjusted net rating, significantly ahead of UNCW’s 92nd. The Tribe’s 44th-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency is the highest in the CAA, a factor that helped them hold the Seahawks to 70 points in their first encounter.
William & Mary Breakdown: The Tempo Engine
The Tribe averages 83.8 PPG and leads the country in average length of offensive possession. Led by Tunde Vahlberg Fasasi (11.5 PPG) and Kilian Brockhoff, W&M relies on elite ball movement and a top-10 defensive perimeter. They hold opponents to an absurd 26.1% from three, which neutralizes the primary weapon for most conference rivals.
UNC Wilmington Breakdown: The Post Dominance
UNCW counters with 7-foot center Patrick Wessler (13.3 PPG, 9.2 RPG), who provides the interior gravity the Tribe lacks. Nolan Hodge (15.4 PPG) is the focal point of the offense, but the Seahawks struggle to force turnovers, ranking near the bottom of the NCAA in steals. If they can’t create transition points, they must win this game in the halfcourt by dominating second-chance opportunities.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m taking William & Mary +4.5. The Tribe is the better team analytically, and getting points in a matchup they’ve already won this season is pure value. W&M’s elite three-point defense should stifle Hodge and Durr, while their blistering pace will force UNCW out of its comfort zone. Expect the Tribe to keep this within a possession or win outright.
BASH’S BEST BET: William & Mary +4.5 for 2 units.
